Re: Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm

by **sroc4** Fri Feb 12, 2016 11:00 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Hmmmm

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t224p25-february-12th-14th-storm-potential

Look over the inital Feb 12-14, 2014 thread, look familiar? High over atlantic (none to N or NW), kicker, overall negative outlook (at least by me initally), similar setup, may be straw grasping here but could that be a similar analog?

Tom I dont think your grasping at straws at all. Im not sure just how far we can trend with this set up, but I do believe that we can def trend colder for longer. For me this is not a question of will be stay all frozen, because I believe we def change over, al least the coastal plain, but In my experience with overruning events the cold ends up being much harder to scour out then what models show in the md range. This was a text message I sent a friend of mine after he asked me what I thought about the set up:

"Youve got three things causing it (It referring to why/how such anomalously cold air can simply just disappear so quickly). As per the teleconnections the PNA goes neg and the EPO spikes positive collapsing ridge out west, and the NAO which is now neutral to slt neg spikes positive as well. The combo means a progressive flow which lifts the cold right up and out of here. That being said cold air this time of year is def hard to scour out. Front end thump is what Im thinking with trends towards a later and later changeover."

Now I have yet to look in any great detail at the models for two reasons. 1) Like Frank mentioned the energy involved has been in very poorly sampled areas, so I still expect things to flip flop and change for better or worse until Sat 12z or so. 2) Because of the stupid IVT set up earlier in the week I have been way behind on my business duties so Ive had to play catch up.

Anyway I will have more to add as we head into the weekend.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Feb 12, 2016 11:02 am

12z GFS 102

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=282976

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Feb 12, 2016 11:04 am

sroc4 wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:Hmmmm

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t224p25-february-12th-14th-storm-potential

Look over the inital Feb 12-14, 2014 thread, look familiar? High over atlantic (none to N or NW), kicker, overall negative outlook (at least by me initally), similar setup, may be straw grasping here but could that be a similar analog?

Tom I dont think your grasping at straws at all. Im not sure just how far we can trend with this set up, but I do believe that we can def trend colder for longer. For me this is not a question of will be stay all frozen, because I believe we def change over, al least the coastal plain, but In my experience with overruning events the cold ends up being much harder to scour out then what models show in the md range. This was a text message I sent a friend of mine after he asked me what I thought about the set up:

"Youve got three things causing it (It referring to why/how such anomalously cold air can simply just disappear so quickly). As per the teleconnections the PNA goes neg and the EPO spikes positive collapsing ridge out west, and the NAO which is now neutral to slt neg spikes positive as well. The combo means a progressive flow which lifts the cold right up and out of here. That being said cold air this time of year is def hard to scour out. Front end thump is what Im thinking with trends towards a later and later changeover."

Now I have yet to look in any great detail at the models for two reasons. 1) Like Frank mentioned the energy involved has been in very poorly sampled areas, so I still expect things to flip flop and change for better or worse until Sat 12z or so. 2) Because of the stupid IVT set up earlier in the week I have been way behind on my business duties so Ive had to play catch up.

Anyway I will have more to add as we head into the weekend.

Feb 14 changed over here for a while, long lull and light rain but front end thump was about 15", another 3 or so on the back end after the heavy rain and t storms with that one. These storms can be very dynamic which is why im somewhat excited.

by **hyde345** Fri Feb 12, 2016 11:26 am

Better run on the 12z GFS shifting east. Still looks like snow to rain in most areas but the further east the longer the front end snows and the possibility of changeover back to snow especially in HV and EPA. Another 50-75 miles east and this could get real interesting.

by **algae888** Fri Feb 12, 2016 11:52 am

Cmc nice front end dump foremost Northwest suburbs never goes above freezing a lot of ice after the snow East Trend baby nam showing the way

by **algae888** Fri Feb 12, 2016 11:53 am

While the euro and GFS have been flip flopping 4 days now the CMC has been consistent with the easternmost and weakest track

by **algae888** Fri Feb 12, 2016 11:56 am

Edit extreme northwest New Jersey and Western Orange County never change over at all Eastern Orange County turns to ice

by **docstox12** Fri Feb 12, 2016 12:01 pm

hyde345 wrote:Better run on the 12z GFS shifting east. Still looks like snow to rain in most areas but the further east the longer the front end snows and the possibility of changeover back to snow especially in HV and EPA. Another 50-75 miles east and this could get real interesting.

If it doesn't go TOO FAR EAST as usual, then we will have a shot at finally beating out the S and E folks.

by **algae888** Fri Feb 12, 2016 12:05 pm

Doc cp and all our nw family this may be your storm GFS has front and back and snow with rain in between about 7 inches for you guys between both of front and back end about an inch for the immediate coast and you can figure out the rest in between. Waiting on the CMC snow maps but they are going to be lovely for you guys even parts of Rockland County never change to plain rain

by **docstox12** Fri Feb 12, 2016 12:06 pm

Good news, Al, my buddies above I 84 all need some white gold!!!

by **sroc4** Fri Feb 12, 2016 12:07 pm

algae888 wrote:Doc cp and all our nw family this may be your storm GFS has front and back and snow with rain in between about 7 inches for you guys between both of front and back end about an inch for the immediate coast and you can figure out the rest in between. Waiting on the CMC snow maps but they are going to be lovely for you guys even parts of Rockland County never change to plain rain

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm - Page 2 Cmc_sn10

by **algae888** Fri Feb 12, 2016 12:09 pm

The CMC track is Delaware Bay off the southern Jersey coast to eastern Long Island that's probably the furthest East it will get hoping for another 50 or so mile shift East even Northern Westchester doesn't turn to rain

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Feb 12, 2016 12:26 pm

The storm NJ referenced from 2014 Valentine's Day was the last 20 plus inch storm up here. It was very odd 10 inches on the front end a lull and some mix and 11 inches on the backend for a 21 inch total. I don't think we see anything like that with this one but the setup is not that different. It would be a miracle.

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Feb 12, 2016 12:39 pm

docstox12 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:Better run on the 12z GFS shifting east. Still looks like snow to rain in most areas but the further east the longer the front end snows and the possibility of changeover back to snow especially in HV and EPA. Another 50-75 miles east and this could get real interesting.

If it doesn't go TOO FAR EAST as usual, then we will have a shot at finally beating out the S and E folks.

Doc this isn't my storm here all rain most likely my way you guys I'm pulling for.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Feb 12, 2016 1:12 pm

This storm is starting to garner more of my attention / interest. While I do think most of us will see a change to rain, I think the front-end thump of snow and ice could be significant. What is kind of scary is the ground will be frozen from the deep freeze this weekend. So deep freeze + front end snow + 2-3 inches of rain after = BAD FLOODING!!

12z GFS

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f87

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f87

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f90

and then the rain / wind .... wow

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f102

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f105

Models are showing a storm track close to what I was expecting. Either inland or right up the coast. I wonder if it tries to trend east still. That is what I was trying to get to in my post yesterday. If it does, we'll gradually see more wintry solutions opposed to warm ones.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Feb 12, 2016 1:13 pm

12z EURO does not have much in the way of front-end snow. It is basically just this frame.

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm - Page 2 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f87

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm - Page 2 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f87

The model is not fully out yet but you can see how it warms up and all the rain getting ready to move in

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm - Page 2 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f93

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm - Page 2 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f93

by Guest Fri Feb 12, 2016 1:15 pm

Hey Doc, Cp, anyone else up north. You say you will beat me on this storm, but I have a technicality to raise with you. If I'm not at home, but rather in NE Pa, isn't that my backyard for this storm? I'm pretty sure the only reason you guys N and W will jackpot potentially, is because I will be N and W for this storm, so does the total really count?

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Feb 12, 2016 1:15 pm

Yea EURO basically has everyone in the northeast raining

Monitoring February 15th-16th Storm - Page 2 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f102

by **jimv45** Fri Feb 12, 2016 1:19 pm

I don't see much snow with this might be 1-3 then lots of rain hope just not there for me with this storm.

by Guest Fri Feb 12, 2016 1:21 pm

If the Euro verifies then at least I get spared the heaviest QPF at my home while I'm away so I don't have to worry about flooding.

by **jimv45** Fri Feb 12, 2016 1:25 pm

boy if EURO is right i will be on the edge of every storm east south now west. but if its rain go west!

by **docstox12** Fri Feb 12, 2016 2:30 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:Better run on the 12z GFS shifting east. Still looks like snow to rain in most areas but the further east the longer the front end snows and the possibility of changeover back to snow especially in HV and EPA. Another 50-75 miles east and this could get real interesting.

If it doesn't go TOO FAR EAST as usual, then we will have a shot at finally beating out the S and E folks.
Doc this isn't my storm here all rain most likely my way you guys I'm pulling for.

Thanks for that skins, but I'm reading Frank's latest analysis that this is pretty far west and everyone gets rain.Oh,well...

by **docstox12** Fri Feb 12, 2016 2:31 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Hey Doc, Cp, anyone else up north. You say you will beat me on this storm, but I have a technicality to raise with you. If I'm not at home, but rather in NE Pa, isn't that my backyard for this storm? I'm pretty sure the only reason you guys N and W will jackpot potentially, is because I will be N and W for this storm, so does the total really count?

Moot point, Jimmy, Frank's analysis of the latest models shows it way west and all rain here.

Recap at 2:48 PM...I should not have said all rain, Frank did mention a front end thump of snow/slop, then heavy rain.Sorry bout dat!

by Guest Fri Feb 12, 2016 2:35 pm

I disagree. He says the Euro shows an all out rainstorm, while the other models have trended a little better. He never says he favors the Euro over the others yet. We shall see.

by **jimv45** Fri Feb 12, 2016 2:36 pm

yea doc it west and the heavy stuff seems to be to if EURO is right.

by **docstox12** Fri Feb 12, 2016 2:51 pm

jimv45 wrote:yea doc it west and the heavy stuff seems to be to if EURO is right.

If that Euro verifies, I'm going to feel like a .300 major league hitter in an 0 for 20 slump,LOL! "Storms to the East of me, storms to the south of me, storms to the west of me...." Geez, even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while!!!

by **jimv45** Fri Feb 12, 2016 2:55 pm

Next a monster storm will back in from the ocean and hit north of us and then we will hit for the cycle!!

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