Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

[Math23x7]

Interestingly enough, 2009 was the last time it went below 60 degrees in Central Park in the month of July (7/8/09).

[amugs]

Also mugs, check out the Nino 1.2 Temperature anomaly map:

Mikey it i snuts ho wit crashed - 3 monmthe too late!!

check out todays readings - below 0!!


FELL OFF THE PROVERBIAL CLIFF - LIKE US SNOW WEENIES THIS WINTER!!!!! (WE JUMPED THOUGH!)

[amugs]

From JB - strong La Nina incoming as per Scripps



La Nina pattern but IF and this is a big if the PDO holds to moderate levels then it could be a very interesting pattern come fall and winter if not we see this - typical Nina pattern


PDO Numbers rose BIG time and will be dampened/cooled by the collapsing Nino but to what extent is the question

PDO READINGS
         J      F      M      A      M      J      JULY    A     S     O       N      D
2015**   2.45   2.30   2.00   1.44   1.20   1.54   1.84   1.56   1.94   1.47   0.86   1.01
2016**   1.53   1.75   2.40

[amugs]

WAR looking to come back strong

[frank 638]

I know its way early to say this but if we do have a strong LA Nina for the winter is that a good thing or a bad thing just curious like I said I know it's way early

[algae888]

I know its way early to say this but if we do have a strong LA Nina for the winter is that a good thing or a bad thing just curious like I said I know it's way early

in most cases a strong enso  is bad for us. we want a weak or neutral enso between +1 an -1. do not feel like we will have a strong nina next winter esp early on. while 1.2 is collapsing other more important regions are still slowly declining. one thing I have been hearing on most sites is that December could be our snowiest and coldest month. after the last two Decembers i'll take it even if jan and feb are warm. still way to early to know.

[algae888]

also while we put much more emphasis on the pacific with regards to sensible weather here the atlantic is moving into an unfavorable position with a +nao more likely not only next winter but for several years after. there is a cold pool of water near Greenland and it looks like it's not budging this would favor low pressure near Greenland aka +nao

[frank 638]

algae 888 thank you for you information that would be great to have a real december and a white xmas but lets enjoy our spring and summer we got a long ways to go

[Frank_Wx]

The ENSO regions were in an anomalously warm state. These things usually counteract each other. After the 1997-1998 super El Nino, the following year we saw a super La Nina. At the least I think we'll see a moderate Niña next year

[Math23x7]

Here is the latest Nino 1.2 temperature anomaly graph.  If you liked last night's graph, you will love this one:



Approaching La Nina territory!

[algae888]

while 1.2 continues to fall 3.4 is slightly rising this month...

[WOLVES1]

Can somebody give me an explanation if we are in a La Niña what type of winter could we have? Also what number would we need to hit in region 3.4?

[algae888]

Can somebody give me an explanation if we are in a La Niña what type of winter could we have? Also what number would we need to hit in region 3.4?

in general a mod to strong nina would have storm track over pac n/w and a lot of cutters with s/e ridge. trough has a tendency to set up over Alaska instead of more favorable position south of aluetians. not as active as el-nino. so generally warm and dry. however weak la nina's aka 95-96 could produce a big winter with cold and snow. also many other factors to consider than enso but strong enso (la nina or el-nino ) are typically not good for us. maybe others with more knowledge on it can add to discussion.

[algae888]

here's some more info from mets
"Six out of the last 10 moderate or strong El Ninos since 1950 have been followed quickly by a La Nina, according to calculations made earlier this year by Tony Barnston at Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society"
"La Nina often means wetter winters in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley and drier in the south, especially Florida, Halpert said. It often means fewer East Coast snowstorms, but a bit colder weather, especially in the Northern Plains, with the Northeast more a wild card, he said."
"The jet stream changes during La Niña, too. Instead of El Niño’s strong jet stream that generally bring storms to the southern tier of the U.S., La Niña tends to create a weaker, wavier jet stream that brings more rain and storms to the northern states. This effect is most pronounced in the winter"

[algae888]

also this el-nino acted very different from the two other super nino's...
"Despite the hype, El Niño didn’t do great things for California like many hoped it would. The other two “very strong” El Niños brought an exceptional amount of rain and snowfall to California, but this year wasn’t anything like that.

Instead of torrential rain in Southern California (and the mudslides that came along with it), the region ended winter with well-below average precipitation. Temperature departures were warm across California and the entire U.S., despite forecasts for cooler than average conditions in the South."

[algae888]

djf strong la-nina's  -1 or higher and total snowfall nyc since 1950
1950... -1.4    13.8
1971... -1.3     15.5
1974... -1.7     23.5
1976... -1.5     17.3
1989... -1.6     8.1
1999... -1.4      12.7
2000... -1.6      16.3
2008... -1.4      11.9
2011... -1.3       61.9

[algae888]

here is criteria noaa uses for there analysis.
"Warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5oC for the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v4 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW)], based on centered 30-year base periods updated every 5 years.

For historical purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive overlapping seasons. The ONI is one measure of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods."
so even though pacific can go - or + at any given time it's only consider a nino or nina when that criteria is met hence why some are saying hurricane season will not be great, esp early on, because nina conditions cannot be met until September at the earliest.

[WOLVES1]

That's what I remember 2011 being a La Niña and lots of snow.

[algae888]

That's what I remember 2011 being a La Niña and lots of snow.

yes but odds heavily favor less snow. we must have had a -nao during that year. my memory of la nina is cold and dry (1970's). my hope is for a 95-96 repeat. that year oni was -.9 and 75.6" of snow. do not think we get below-1 next winter. we shall see.

[WOLVES1]

The -1 number is a bench mark form weak to strong?

[algae888]

The -1 number is a bench mark form weak to strong?

I believe over -1 is moderate. Strong probably starts at -1.5

[Quietace]

That's what I remember 2011 being a La Niña and lots of snow.

yes but odds heavily favor less snow. we must have had  a -nao during that year. my memory of la nina is cold and dry (1970's). my hope is for a 95-96 repeat. that year oni was -.9 and 75.6" of snow. do not think we get below-1 next winter. we shall see.

The 1970s were also driven in a large part due to the strong negative PDO, which forcing's act in a very similar way to negative ENSO event.

[frank 638]

I hope we have a repeat of a 95 96 winter for 16 and 17 I rember we had snow from late Nov till early April

[Math23x7]

It's interesting that people I asking about the winter of 2010-11.  I mentioned this in another thread but it was when I began to follow the old 7-online chat board.  And it was when I thought Frank was the insider meteorologist for Channel 7 behind the scenes for quite awhile, not knowing until February 2011 that he was only 18 years old.  And as I have said many many times, Frank was the only one as far as I know, that called for a "Godzilla" from the January 26th-27th, 2011 two nights before it commenced.  This is a video from March 2011 featuring images and graphics Frank put up and was put together by his brother Tommy (as mentioned in the description).  For the newcomers, those were his snow maps as he made them back in the day.  And he shows the sustained -NAO +PNA, and -AO for the big snowstorms and how the +AO beginning in late January coincided with the sudden switch from active snowy pattern to not-so-active snoy pattern:

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The ENSO regions were in an anomalously warm state. These things usually counteract each other. After the 1997-1998 super El Nino, the following year we saw a super La Nina. At the least I think we'll see a moderate Niña next year

Frank, if what you say is true, and I have no reason to believe it isn't, both of those winters 97/98 and 98/99 were both horrible and among the top ten warmest of all time and among the least snowiest of all time.

1997/98 had a Dec-Feb average temperature of 39.6, which at the time made it the second warmest winter in history, snowfall in NYC was a meager 5.5 among the 5 worst winters ever.

1998/99 which you identify as a super La Nina was almost as bad. The winter average in NYC was 38.7, which at the time made it the fourth warmest winter ever and the snowfall was a paltry 12.7 inches. This three year period from 96/97 to 98/99 had the least amount of snowfall in any 3 year period by far in NYC history.

So if a Super El Nino gives us horrible winters and a Super la Nina gives us horrible winters than we really need to avoid any extremes.

What we need is a Super El Noneia, which is the exact neutral zone of a super El Nino and a super la Nina.

Actually there is no such term but it sounds good to me so I thought I'd throw it in there. You may feel free to use it as you wish. It was inspired by Doc's coining of the phrase Hell Nino to describe this past winter, which certainly was apropos.

[dkodgis]

CP, let's call it El NoNo with a wink and a nod to Amy Winehouse and her song.

[Snow88]

That's what I remember 2011 being a La Niña and lots of snow.

yes but odds heavily favor less snow. we must have had  a -nao during that year. my memory of la nina is cold and dry (1970's). my hope is for a 95-96 repeat. that year oni was -.9 and 75.6" of snow. do not think we get below-1 next winter. we shall see.

In 2010-2011, I had 60 inches of snow by Feb 1 thanks to a strong -NAO and -AO until February.

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