Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

[algae888]

Scott what I like about this threat that's different than the last several threats we had is that we are now inside seven days actually the start time is 6 days out and it has been trending better for our area. The last several threats we had in the seven-to-ten day range and once it got inside 7 Days model started showing the Cutter solution.

[Frank_Wx]

It looks like we have another cut off ridge in the western Arctic that may try to push the PV south and supply us the cold. There definitely seems to be a big storm looming, just a matter of determining wet or white. If the NAO goes negative and is ideally placed, I think we have a shot. Euro was a bomb! 

[amugs]

SNOW WEENIE MUGS IS READY FOR A EURO BOMB HERE - A0 GOING NEG, EPO AND IF IF WE CAN GET THE NAO TO HOLD N THEN WE COULD HAVE A DOOZY - BACK FROM MY SELF IMPOSED HAITUS!

[Snow88]

0z GFS has a weak low offshore

[Snow88]

0z GGEM went from an inland runner to OTS. Storm is offshore. Long week ahead with these models lol.

[algae888]

all models shifted well east. good spot at this range imo. most storms have trended n/w as we moved closer in time. as I said yesterday a cutter is probably unlikely att which means coastal areas have better chances at seeing one more acc snowfall.
euro

cmc

gfs

ukie

[algae888]

then we have the navgem and jma...

[algae888]

cmc ens...

gfs ens are mostly ots. it's usual progressive bias

[algae888]

00z para gfs...

[Snow88]

AO and NAO aren't that negative like it was showing yesterday

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

[Snow88]

The PNA might be the problem here. The ridge out west has to hold instead of flattening out.

[sroc4]

AO and NAO aren't that negative like it was showing yesterday

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

Personally I don't care about the AO in this situation.  All I care about is the EPO and the NAO in this set up.  This combo is what will hopefully allow the cold air source to be there ahead of the storm and force the storm track from cutting if modeled correctly.  Anthony here are the weather bell graphics regarding the NAO.  On the ensembles and operationals for the GEFS/GFS and , EPS/Euro they show the NAO already neg, and they still show it getting close to two standard deviations negative around the 16th-17th.  To me the intensity and axis of the positive heights on the 500mb maps agrees with a strong neg NAO 16th-17th, so I think the CPC graphics you posted are incorrect.











As the NAO transitions back to neutral around the 20th, which is consistent on all 4 images above, this in theory should allow the storm to come up.  The way its currently modeled its either coming up the coast or going to be a near miss OTS.  Think back to Jan.  We had a -NAO in the middle of the month, but no storms when the NAO was neg.  It wasn't until the NAO transitioned back to neutral positive that we got the blizzard to come up around the 23rd.  



To me the current modeling and the teleconnections are making a strong case for this thing to make a run at us. That said there is still plenty of time for the modeling to evolve differently, so I am not paying that close attention to where the surface maps are placing the low at the moment. I agree with what Al mentioned yesterday in that I am leaning towards either coming up the coast or OTS and less towards a western track for the moment.

[sroc4]

The PNA might be the problem here. The ridge out west has to hold instead of flattening out.

That could be the difference in OTS or Up the coast

[Quietace]

Looking past the system next week.....Their is a strong signal for above normal temperatures as higher heights move into the East. EPS Weeklies have 850s 2-4 degrees C above from day 12 to 16 before spread increases. A few days with strong south westerly flow as the high is positioned over the SE US.

[amugs]

Scott look at the differences between teh 6Z and 12Z runs pulled off Wxbell





Nice ridge in the west. Aluetian LP off the coast in a good spot, -NAO with what looks to be a 50/50 LP bottle dup in front or underneath it - GFS coming around - storm is closer to shore in teh OP on the 12Z runs and will shift this way - I am for one not leaning to a cutter at all this time but I am thinking like Al and you have stated - Coastal or a swipe not sold on an OTS miss yet but than is the forever Snow Weenie in me.

Ukie says go WEST young bukeroo - come to papa - I like where we are sitting at this juncture and what the tele's are saying or indicating as well

[algae888]

Scott and mugs the CMC is way amped up. 978 MB off the Virginia capes. If then moves almost due east. It's still misses us and precipitation Shield looks kind of funny but nice Trends on all models today

[amugs]

Scott and mugs the CMC is way amped up. 978 MB off the Virginia capes. If then moves almost due east. It's still misses us and precipitation Shield looks kind of funny but nice Trends on all models today

Al just looked on SV and wow that is one heck of a storm - we have seen these before this winter. Need that puppy to come further North and not seeing why it takes path up the coast and then slides east as it hit the VA Capes with the ridge pumped out west on the CMC and again what looks to be a 50/50. Plenty of time and great trends absolutely.

[amugs]

EURO says HELLO

[nutleyblizzard]

EURO says HELLO

I assume its a shift west Mugs? With the 24 hour panels off the tropical tidbits site its tough to tell.

[algae888]

mugs a 6hr difference with the phasing of the n/s and s/s and this will be a monster...

we either need a quicker n/s or a slower s/s for a perfect phase. good runs 5+ days out

[amugs]

Al plenty of time and a full phase woudl be HUUGGGEEEE!!

JMA says A DOUBLE HELLO!!

[amugs]

EURO says HELLO

I assume its a shift west Mugs? With the 24 hour panels off the tropical tidbits site its tough to tell.

Nuts,
I have not seen other runs since I came on board after my self imposed hiatus last week when we were Morching for March - just now looking at the 0z runs yes it is a shift west - excellent trends by the big boys!!

[amugs]

Also, it comes in on Sunday night - overnight - into Monday - Sun angle will not be issue if this were to occur as currently projected

[jake732]

Who's in this photo?
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[jmanley32]

I can't believe we are tracking such a big possible storm after 70+ degree days, I was kinda hoping for the nice weather to continue but shoot if this can be a monster storm bring it. The Euro trended quite a bit west, a few hungred miles looks like. CMC is a snowicane if it moved up the coast. Def have watch this one, but we have been skunked like with that last epic miss.

[algae888]

Nws going with rain as precip type for coastal areas even with low east of bm.

[jmanley32]

Nws going with rain as precip type for coastal areas even with low east of bm.

I can see that happening but this is still 5 days out a ton can and will change as u know Al.

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