March 20th-21st: Spring Godzilla Part 1

HectorO wrote:Is there supposed to be some cold air getting sucked in for this storm? Right now the temps look a bit warm for it to be just an all snow event.

No theres going to be a huge injection (as rayno says) of cold air coming in fri through sat it will be plenty cold as most of it is happening late day and overnight.

I believe temps tomorrow morning are only go be in the low 30s upper 20s.

Ryan Maue from wxbell is going to run  a test operational run of the upgraded Euro today for this storm, if he is getting hyped you know somethings up.

Fwiw, 9z SREF at 87 hours. Looks like the Euro or maybe even slightly west.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087&image=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_mslp.gif&model=sref&area=namer&param=mslp&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160317+09+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

Wow. What does the color coding indicate on those are maps?

We will b in range with the Sr models in the next day or so. And sat will b a big day.

Bernies latest video he does not seem as intrigued as he was yesterday, Guess he is just being cautious prolly cuz the Euro is the only major model of the 3 showing a huge storm. Lets hope it holds ground, he thinks its not coming far west either.

Wow LGA Sref members out to its end has max at 2.21 LE and a low of .52 LE, that's a big spread but makes a call for a 6+ event pretty clear FWIW.

jman, and max??

jake732 wrote:jman, and max??

I said 2.21 max, meaning 22.1 inches if all snow. But a large majority are less than 6 inches and a few are 0.

can u post map?

Its not a map its a graph not sure let me see, but its really not reliable at this time the SR models really only become good around 24hrs out or less.

JMA - IF THIS WERE TO COME TO FRUITION THEN WE HAVE SNOW TO RAIN FOR THE COAST AND A BOMB FOR INLAND AREAS AND THOSE JUST OFF THE COAST.

Those just off the coast? So people in boats? LOL

I do not want any any any rain all same event plz!

I didn't think precip type was going to be a issue, so overnight it would change to rain that doesn't make a lot of sense as its at its coldest.

Idk sometimes on the coast u never know.

amugs wrote:

JMA - IF THIS WERE TO COME TO FRUITION THEN WE HAVE SNOW TO RAIN FOR THE COAST AND A BOMB FOR INLAND AREAS AND THOSE JUST OFF THE COAST.

that depicts a very weak storm too. Oh I see the phase coming into the 1004mb, so assuming this went out further it would intensify very quickly, am I right?

12z NAM does not look promising, FWIW not worth posting this far out.

jmanley32 wrote:12z NAM does not look promising, FWIW not worth posting this far out.

I disagree Jman. Ill post why in a moment

Remember what the surface maps looked like at this time pre blizzard Jan23rd. The heaviest precip was being centered east when in reality it came back to be associated with the deepening surface low. With NAM in its extended range this should correct even if the 500mb maps stay the same.

Notice the position of the LP S of LI and where the heaviest convection is to its east. above. Now look below at the energy to which the surface is trying to focus and where the LP center is. It just doesnt make sense. The LP center IMO should be futher S and W along the coast based off the energy rounding the trough at hr84. If what I think is correct extrapolated the N energy should be phasing with the base of the trough over the next 6-12hrs leading to the deep LP the Euro shows. We will see as the NAM comes better in range over the next 24-36hrs

Upton's Twitter graphic just now; talk about laments terms lol

SoulSingMG wrote:12z GFS comes in west of its last run by 50-75 miles.

Surface maps still doesnt quite add up to 500mb and I still think GFS playing catch up even at 500mb.  Id still take this:

CMC coming in much more amped compared to 00z Pay particular attention to how much further N the 552 line is around Indiana/Ohio

old hr 54:


New Hr 42:

Yep. GFS should of shown a stronger surface reflection upon looking at the improved H5 levels. This crazy model is playing catch up with itself!

Oh CANADA!!!!


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