March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

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March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Mar 17, 2016 7:03 pm

Hi everyone! Here is today's update:

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2016/03/euro-model-shows-godzilla-while-gfs.html


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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by Joe Snow on Thu Mar 17, 2016 7:48 pm

Great write up Frank................ Looks like we have one more dance with Old Man Winter
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by frank 638 on Thu Mar 17, 2016 7:56 pm

thanks frank for the great post at least winter will go out with a bang after all we only had one blizzard 2 or 3 minor snow event . i look forward to have one more snowstorm have a good night frank Very Happy Razz Thumbs up party

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by billg315 on Thu Mar 17, 2016 7:56 pm

Nice write-up Frank. March has produced some memorable snowstorms before, looks like it might be fixin' to do it again.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by jimv45 on Thu Mar 17, 2016 8:12 pm

Nice post. But I think the east trend will start soon been watching for a few days before I finally gave and needed to post some models got my interest but not going to be pulled in to see this go east again hope I am wrong but not feeling it.

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by rb924119 on Thu Mar 17, 2016 8:48 pm

I know that this belongs in the Obs thread, but I just got off the phone with my parents..........they had thundersnow this evening GFS Model GFS Model Brick Tired Mad I LIVED IN THAT HOUSE FOR 20 YEARS AND NOT ONCE DID I EVER EXPERIENCE IT. I HAVEN'T REALLY LIVED AT HOME FOR ABOUT FIVE YEARS (between college/internships and now actually having moved out) AND OF THOSE FIVE YEARS THEY HAVE HAD IT FOUR TIMES. UGHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!! Mother Nature that's a cruel joke to play on a person, let me tell you!! End rant lol On the other hand, hopefully its a positive vibe for the possible event this weekend Wink

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Mar 17, 2016 9:11 pm

@rb924119 wrote:I know that this belongs in the Obs thread, but I just got off the phone with my parents..........they had thundersnow this evening GFS Model GFS Model Brick Tired Mad I LIVED IN THAT HOUSE FOR 20 YEARS AND NOT ONCE DID I EVER EXPERIENCE IT. I HAVEN'T REALLY LIVED AT HOME FOR ABOUT FIVE YEARS (between college/internships and now actually having moved out) AND OF THOSE FIVE YEARS THEY HAVE HAD IT FOUR TIMES. UGHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!! Mother Nature that's a cruel joke to play on a person, let me tell you!! End rant lol On the other hand, hopefully its a positive vibe for the possible event this weekend Wink

This made me LOL

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Mar 17, 2016 9:12 pm

SREFS



JMA



Wootw00t

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by rb924119 on Thu Mar 17, 2016 9:20 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:I know that this belongs in the Obs thread, but I just got off the phone with my parents..........they had thundersnow this evening GFS Model GFS Model Brick Tired Mad I LIVED IN THAT HOUSE FOR 20 YEARS AND NOT ONCE DID I EVER EXPERIENCE IT. I HAVEN'T REALLY LIVED AT HOME FOR ABOUT FIVE YEARS (between college/internships and now actually having moved out) AND OF THOSE FIVE YEARS THEY HAVE HAD IT FOUR TIMES. UGHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!! Mother Nature that's a cruel joke to play on a person, let me tell you!! End rant lol On the other hand, hopefully its a positive vibe for the possible event this weekend Wink

This made me LOL

So glad my pain is your laughter -_- lmao Karma is a _____, just so you know :p

And the JMA is redonkulous I won't lie ahaa

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 17, 2016 10:09 pm

Great write up Frank (never will I call you teh saint word (F R A N _ _ _) and like I said in part I of the is storm thread if we get a phase then watch the bleep out - that woudl be a monster I feel. ECM and EPS are all on board for this storm - that says a lot imb. Looking forward to great info coming 6AM from euro and gfs caving

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Mar 17, 2016 10:49 pm

nam dumps over ct li and north 12-18. too far east.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Mar 17, 2016 10:53 pm

actually not to far east the banding just doesnt reach to the area. it goes out to 84 centered over cape cod.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by sroc4 on Thu Mar 17, 2016 10:54 pm

Convective feedback on the NAM hrs 63-78. By 12z tomorrow peeps going to go nuts.

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Dec 11th = coating
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Jan 14th = 1.75"
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March 10th = 4.8"
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Mar 17, 2016 10:55 pm

TTHE NAM, my friends, is trending toward the EURO, plain and simple. Watch her 12z run mañana. Razz
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by sroc4 on Thu Mar 17, 2016 10:55 pm

Once again lost a ton of convection to the east. Model wants to focus on the wrong spot

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Mar 17, 2016 10:56 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Convective feedback on the NAM hrs 63-78. By 12z tomorrow peeps going to go nuts.
Ahhhh, we posted same thought at same time, Sroc! Haha cheers
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Mar 17, 2016 10:56 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Convective feedback on the NAM hrs 63-78. By 12z tomorrow peeps going to go nuts.

nice so sroc, that means that precip shield should have been much more expansive? Also was there a phase?
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by sroc4 on Thu Mar 17, 2016 10:56 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:TTHE NAM, my friends, is trending toward the EURO, plain and simple. Watch her 12z run mañana. Razz

Great minds Soul

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by sroc4 on Thu Mar 17, 2016 11:04 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Convective feedback on the NAM hrs 63-78. By 12z tomorrow peeps going to go nuts.

nice so sroc, that means that precip shield should have been much more expansive? Also was there a phase?

IMO between the hrs I stated the precip and LP center should be more focused not sitting 500miles to the EAST of center.    We look to get partial phasing between hrs 69-75ish.


Last edited by sroc4 on Thu Mar 17, 2016 11:07 pm; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by sroc4 on Thu Mar 17, 2016 11:06 pm

I call BS on this:





_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by sroc4 on Thu Mar 17, 2016 11:08 pm

Headed to bed...going to wake up with a fresh cup O joe and will put out a first call

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Mar 17, 2016 11:17 pm

I see very similar situation to jonas.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by Math23x7 on Thu Mar 17, 2016 11:29 pm

I just had a chance to look at the 21Z SREFs for NYC.  Keep in mind that with the qpf on the plumes, many of them have a mix of some sorts.  And one of them, which has 1.95" of qpf, has 1.72 inches of snow before changing to heavy rain.  But if you want to take the snow amounts as they are, six have them have no snow, five of them have a trace to one inch, six of them have 1-2 inches of snow, four of them have between 2-6 inches of snow, three of them have between 6-12 inches of snow.  And two of them have 12"+, the highest amount being 15.53" of snow.  The mean is 3.18" and the Median is 1.6"  Here is the image of the amounts I put onto Excel:


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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Mar 17, 2016 11:43 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I see very similar situation to jonas.

confused confused
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Mar 17, 2016 11:50 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I see very similar situation to jonas.

confused confused
opps didn't wuote. The precipitation not being around the low instead 500 miles to east as sroc4 said convective feedback.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

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