Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Mar 17, 2016 11:43 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I see very similar situation to jonas.

by **jmanley32** Thu Mar 17, 2016 11:50 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I see very similar situation to jonas.

opps didn't wuote. The precipitation not being around the low instead 500 miles to east as sroc4 said convective feedback.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Mar 17, 2016 11:54 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I see very similar situation to jonas.

opps didn't wuote. The precipitation not being around the low instead 500 miles to east as sroc4 said convective feedback.

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Mar 17, 2016 11:56 pm

00z GFS = OUT TO 'LUNCH' (midnight snack, maybe??)

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Mar 18, 2016 12:30 am

OH CANADUHHHH!

March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2 - Page 2 Image15

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Mar 18, 2016 12:39 am

by **Math23x7** Fri Mar 18, 2016 12:44 am

Not to be a Debbie downer, but the 0Z CMC is actually an ice storm for NYC/LI, southern Westchester county, coastal CT, and NJ south of I-78:

March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2 - Page 2 Cmcice10

March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2 - Page 2 Cmcice10

by **Snow88** Fri Mar 18, 2016 12:55 am

GGEM looks great. Ukie also looks good.

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:03 am

Math23x7 wrote:Not to be a Debbie downer, but the 0Z CMC is actually an ice storm for NYC/LI, southern Westchester county, coastal CT, and NJ south of I-78:

I posted the CMC's 00z snowfall map; see above. :-)

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:16 am

Guys.

Hearing the 00z EURO caved to the GFS.

by **Snow88** Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:19 am

Euro well east of 12z. Following the GFS?

by **Snow88** Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:21 am

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:26 am

Snow88 wrote:

Huuuuge difference from 12z; not a good sign at all for snow lovers.

by **Snow88** Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:30 am

SoulSingMG wrote:
Snow88 wrote:
Huuuuge difference from 12z; not a good sign at all for snow lovers.

Good enough for me. I will take my 4-6 inches and run with it.

With the way the GFS,Nam, GGEM and Ukie look, this looks like a coastal snowstorm especially in SNE. ( as of right now )

by **2004blackwrx** Fri Mar 18, 2016 3:31 am

I should have known better then to get excited for anything this winter.

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Mar 18, 2016 4:42 am

Not sounding so good so the Euro has caved to GFS not good at all

by **Radz** Fri Mar 18, 2016 4:48 am

Snow88 wrote:Euro well east of 12z. Following the GFS?

Not what i wanted to wake up to... new Euro stumbles and grabs onto there GFS to steady itself?? Embarassed

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Mar 18, 2016 4:52 am

So I wonder what all other models do being they where all with Euro

by **Radz** Fri Mar 18, 2016 5:02 am

Guessing 12z suite today will see a broad consensus between models at a modest 48hrs before the onset of the event... this hobby makes one age at a much increased rate

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 18, 2016 5:39 am

Wow gfs wins again. 06z nam way out to sea no snow at all. Well let's get back to spring then. Amazing how the euro caving and I hate to think it's gonna go even more east. Maybe rb was right all along. Unless all the models had convective feedback I don't see us winning this one.

by **nutleyblizzard** Fri Mar 18, 2016 5:50 am

I'm not giving up yet. Numerous times this winter storms have trended west inside 48 hours. It would be pretty shocking if the GFS was right all along. Other then the NAM it had no support. I'll be interested to hear what Frank has to say.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Mar 18, 2016 6:09 am

Dang, this is why I wanted a phase. At this point it's safe to say the phase will not happen. The southern stream is too far ahead of the northern stream. So we're left with a strong southern energy but the surface low needs to take the perfect track. I still think the 250mb jet supports a track near the BM. Should be an interesting 12z.

by **nutleyblizzard** Fri Mar 18, 2016 6:14 am

6Z GFS went east. Complete whiff. What a cruel joke to end winter if this were to happen. Other than our January blizzard, Too many storms to count would be OTS or cutters. Let's see what happens at 12Z. Hoping for a miracle turnaround now even though we were in great shape just 12 hours earlier.

by **sroc4** Fri Mar 18, 2016 6:17 am

WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 18, 2016 6:20 am

sroc4 wrote:WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

hows that morning cup joe sroc? Ya my sentiments exactly! Then again we were all ride euro train. We didn't have all model agreement so someone had to cave. Maybe we do the west shuffle now till sun. Happened b4.

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 18, 2016 6:30 am

Euro ensembles agree with operational but some are still hits but more like a 3 to 6 inch storm. Some are a bit more some are zero. Haven't counted exactly and do not have time. 12z will tell the tale.

by **docstox12** Fri Mar 18, 2016 6:58 am

Well, I posted yesterday without looking at any models that the LHV would be lucky to get a couple of slushy inches.Now that looks very generous.There is just some evil force taking these things S and E constantly.I'm not knowledgeable enough to say it is climate change, but it IS A CHANGE as verified by my watching snowstorms since 1960.

Please let's just push the reset button on winter up here and get on with Spring and warmer weather.

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