Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

jmanley32 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:NAVGEM really far south. Totally rocks southern jersey but wouldn't be toooo too severe in NYC area if scenario played out.

NAVGEM was also south with the 12z run.

outlier?

Quietace wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Yeah I heard Skins. My parents are on LBI right now and they said that it's packed and nobody is even mentioning this thing. I told to do what they had to and get off as soon as possible because it's gonna be gridlock once people realize.

This is why when I come back this winter I am going to get involved in the local OEM. To slow to respond, and ZERO evacuations being in place. Are you frickin nuts! Especially in Cape May and Atlantic Counties. Everyone should be out from Belmar south in the lowest lying areas. Parts of Manasquan and Brielle flood at full moon, and conservatively add 4-5 feet to it, its a no brainier and I cant stand ignorance to facts, and "waiting". There job is to save lives and property and they are not doing currently. If they wait until Saturday night to issue evacs there is going to be gridlock down south and people are not going to get out. And if it stays as modeled, there is going to be repercussions for property and life and its sickening. there hasnt been enough communication between the NWS, and news outlets to get the info out to the public. 90% of the pop is not taking this seriously. DSS is one of the most important parts of meteorology and I feel its failing right now.

Ace I agree they should have,people getting out but I bet it's because of the holiday weekend which is nuts. I bet if this forecast holds they will evacuate the east side of point pleasant beach and it will be tough with all the rentals.

Thats not a excuse. What you do is get them up out of the office, and walk door to door handing out the  slips. Then you tell them to get the h out. 3 step process, which you need a few days to execute.

rb924119 wrote:Not saying I disagree, but be careful when you say this. Sometimes the outliers hold the truth. Nobody likes to admit this, one GFS ensemble member had Sandy nailed days before the Euro. I know for a fact that it did because I remember talking about it with my college professor. I believe it was member 15. One out of hundreds got it right. Just be mindful and open to all possibilities, that's all I'm saying. See what makes it different; question why it's different. See what it means to you. Then decide to toss it.

Quietace wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:how come it went quiet...are we waiting for more models to come out?

Since it is EDT model come out a hour later than in the winter. Thus we have to wait until 9:45 for the first round of data to get in. 8pm int. advisory just came out with little changes.

jmanley32 wrote:What happened to Franks update blog?

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:What happened to Franks update blog?

15 minutes

rb924119 wrote:May or may not be problematic lmfao but I agree, I'm just saying don't be blinded by consensus. 9/10 times consensus is right, but it only takes that one time to really burn you. Believe me, I've been there, and I'm sure if you asked any other forecaster on here he or she will say the same thing.  It's better to be wrong for reasons that you believed to be right, than to be wrong for the wrong reasons.

Sanchize06 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:May or may not be problematic lmfao but I agree, I'm just saying don't be blinded by consensus. 9/10 times consensus is right, but it only takes that one time to really burn you. Believe me, I've been there, and I'm sure if you asked any other forecaster on here he or she will say the same thing.  It's better to be wrong for reasons that you believed to be right, than to be wrong for the wrong reasons.

Absolutely. I mean if Hermine comes off the coast of NC and makes a direct left turn into Virginia Beach I'll never toss it again haha

rb924119 wrote:Totally agree mugs. And I saw that. The low locations shows it best. Distinct northwest lean in the mean. Not good.

nutleyblizzard wrote:Wow just saw the 18z GEFS. The latest EPS also came west. This is getting serious folks. Would not surprise me to see a landfalling cane somewhere between cape may to sandy hook at 00z.