Hurricane Hermine Discussion

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

amugs wrote:TICKING WEST - FRANK SAID IT WOULD GET PULLED WEST SO LOOK AT THIS NOW - UMMMM...

Yeah but note north movement, likely wont make it any farther, it will get kicked east where it stalls, so if its well to the SE, aside from some coastal flooding, not a big deal. Storm center, tightest isobars and wind will mostly be over water per latest guidance.

It will not get kicked east until the trough comes back next week. The latest hurricane models have it recurving now. GFS and Nam shifted west . Lets see if the west shit is real.

When are 12z runs

amugs wrote:

sroc4 wrote:It really hasn't Mugs. The Cone of uncertainty expanded. Track still has it S and East of the BM by Wed.

True but the position of L in this cone is starting to show a westward curve to it. Albeit not a lot and I am not hyping but just stating that we are starting to see that that it retrogres off the Delmarva and not going ene but also stalls in tjis area. Just my interpretation. NJ coastline down to OC MD shores are the prime zone. Beach erosion will be bad imho due to the hours of water piling up on the shore line, a few high tides in duration with a new moon.
Big 12z suite today but not the final.

Scott that cone shoes the low off of NJ for 3+ days well INSIDE of the BM no? I know it's just a guess and the positions are dead center of a large cone, but....

skinsfan1177 wrote:When are 12z runs

Nam up within minutes

syosnow94 wrote:

amugs wrote:

sroc4 wrote:It really hasn't Mugs. The Cone of uncertainty expanded. Track still has it S and East of the BM by Wed.

True but the position of L in this cone is starting to show a westward curve to it. Albeit not a lot and I am not hyping but just stating that we are starting to see that that it retrogres off the Delmarva and not going ene but also stalls in tjis area. Just my interpretation. NJ coastline down to OC MD shores are the prime zone. Beach erosion will be bad imho due to the hours of water piling up on the shore line, a few high tides in duration with a new moon.
Big 12z suite today but not the final.

Scott that cone shoes the low off of NJ for 3+ days well INSIDE of the BM no?  I know it's just a guess and the positions are dead center of a large cone, but....

Left of 70 but S of 40

sroc4 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

amugs wrote:

sroc4 wrote:It really hasn't Mugs. The Cone of uncertainty expanded. Track still has it S and East of the BM by Wed.

True but the position of L in this cone is starting to show a westward curve to it. Albeit not a lot and I am not hyping but just stating that we are starting to see that that it retrogres off the Delmarva and not going ene but also stalls in tjis area. Just my interpretation. NJ coastline down to OC MD shores are the prime zone. Beach erosion will be bad imho due to the hours of water piling up on the shore line, a few high tides in duration with a new moon.
Big 12z suite today but not the final.

Scott that cone shoes the low off of NJ for 3+ days well INSIDE of the BM no?  I know it's just a guess and the positions are dead center of a large cone, but....

Left of 70 but S of 40

Agreed, but wouldn't that put us in a prime spot for days upon days of rain at the very least?

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Ace seems to think nyc area could get added to ts watches which would signify to me a more nw movement.

I won't speak for him but LI and N coast of NJ will be in the watch area once the timing is closer. It's like looking at a winter storm watch. It's all about timing. There is no doubt tropical storm force winds sustained and or gusts are likely along the entire coast.

I don't remember saying that, but i agree with your statements.

How come no talk about how the storm looks currently is it still on track

Snow88 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

amugs wrote:TICKING WEST - FRANK SAID IT WOULD GET PULLED WEST SO LOOK AT THIS NOW - UMMMM...

Yeah but note north movement, likely wont make it any farther, it will get kicked east where it stalls, so if its well to the SE, aside from some coastal flooding, not a big deal. Storm center, tightest isobars and wind will mostly be over water per latest guidance.

It will not get kicked east until the trough comes back next week. The latest hurricane models have it recurving now. GFS and Nam shifted west . Lets see if the west shit is real.

The trend is not NW. It's NW the SE then NW then SE. Hence why we have seen the cone shift back and forth 6 times in two days and why the cone of uncertainty is over 500miles in diameter for two days from now. The forecast track in the center of the cone is the avg track based on where 75% of the model consensus is. And again the consensus has shifted back and forth. My gut tells me to lean to the right of the current forecast track. Syo if I'm right it would likely place the track S and E of the BM and the most significant effects OTS. That said in no way am I sold on that idea right now. Going to have to watch the mid level trends on the modeling and in real time to see where it stalls out. How far north does it meander and how Far East does it get.

Quietace wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Ace seems to think nyc area could get added to ts watches which would signify to me a more nw movement.

I won't speak for him but LI and N coast of NJ will be in the watch area once the timing is closer. It's like looking at a winter storm watch. It's all about timing. There is no doubt tropical storm force winds sustained and or gusts are likely along the entire coast.

I don't remember saying that, but i agree with your statements.

Sorry Ryan. My point was I cant speak for how you feel but this is what my thoughts were.

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Ace seems to think nyc area could get added to ts watches which would signify to me a more nw movement.

I won't speak for him but LI and N coast of NJ will be in the watch area once the timing is closer. It's like looking at a winter storm watch. It's all about timing. There is no doubt tropical storm force winds sustained and or gusts are likely along the entire coast.

no doesn't matter to me bout watches warnings etc. I was just woder if only immediate Coast would see winds or like me for instance abput 2 miles from hudson and 15 from battery will I see the winds too?

Quietace wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Ace seems to think nyc area could get added to ts watches which would signify to me a more nw movement.

I won't speak for him but LI and N coast of NJ will be in the watch area once the timing is closer. It's like looking at a winter storm watch. It's all about timing. There is no doubt tropical storm force winds sustained and or gusts are likely along the entire coast.

I don't remember saying that, but i agree with your statements.

sorry I edited thst post. I meant alex. U said it could go tropical which I agree too.

12z NAM rolling. So far no major differences through hour 24

Hour 30 is more tucked into the coast than 00z.

still west of 0z through hr 35

Nam is west of the 6z run so far at 42 hours

Is it really West or are we talking 5 miles???

jake732 wrote:Is it really West or are we talking 5 miles???

Significantly further west. At 48 hours it's a solid 100 miles. Maybe somebody can explain why, I can't, don't have time, but it's west. I had a feeling it would be.....

RB what does west mean

Very west at 66 hours

Heavier bands gets into NYC

West of 6z

Stalls east of Cape May or just south of there

Thinking bigger impacts

Tropical Storm Watch Now for NYC

New Track has it remerging into a hurricane of the DE coast.

aiannone wrote:
New Track has it remerging into a hurricane of the DE coast.

Ohhh there is an H in there now.

Tropical storm watch extended into NYC, LI, Southern Westchester, Coastal CT

sroc4 wrote:

aiannone wrote:
New Track has it remerging into a hurricane of the DE coast.

Ohhh there is an H in there now.  

H??