Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Snow88 wrote:

WeatherBob wrote:Thank God it is trending away from the coast.  It will do its loop far enough off shore and spare us the potential tragedy. Just a big breeze machine for us for a few days. However, tides can still run 2 to 4 ft above normal and the rip currents will be brutal.

It's not trending away yet and who knows if he will be more west. A lot of posts all over the internet this morning are like winter posts. ( It's over, It's over )

The trend has definitevely and undeniably been east across the board while the low is strong, as well as many models kicking the low out quicker. While it is still possible things change and things are still west from several days ago, they have been trending east for the past day.

Member of another board:

Wind gusts already up to 33mph reported on a LBI weather station. Not bad given Hermine's still distant location. The water pile-up has already begun for the shore.

JB

"Global models may drag Hermine too far east as they feed back on escaping baroclinic feedback pressure fall center to east of Hermine. "

Quietace wrote:

WeatherBob wrote:NjWeatherGuy, thanks for that pressure fall map. That has sealed the deal for me where this baby is heading for! Basic meteorology!

Ugh thats not what the message I was trying to send...

WeatherBob wrote:NjWeatherGuy, thanks for that pressure fall map. That has sealed the deal for me where this baby is heading for! Basic meteorology!

But pressure fall maps don't show you the anomalous block to the north that will try to turn Hermine back west?

Ace lmao

Those pressure falls are associated with convection that is rapidly escaping the central circulation. As the day wears on you will see those fade since the nocturnal cycle of oceanic convection falls off to a minimum.

rb924119 wrote:Ace lmao

Those pressure falls are associated with convection that is rapidly escaping the central circulation. As the day wears on you will see those fade since the nocturnal cycle of oceanic convection falls off to a minimum.

Frank_Wx wrote:Member of another board:

Wind gusts already up to 33mph reported on a LBI weather station. Not bad given Hermine's still distant location. The water pile-up has already begun for the shore.

Manasquan Inlet is 16 NNE G25

SREFS a bit more tucked in than 03z

Frank the problem is I think it sped up and ran ahead of the block, HP is supposed to be situated square to the NE of the low to lock it in, right now its N/NNW

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16

Wow

Check out @EdValleeWx's Tweet: https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/772067279278407680?s=09

Good morning ya'll.
Looks like 12z suite are going to be big again after a wobble last night at 0z.
After digesting the posts I am still of the belief as rb posted. Read JB twitter feed, said models pushing it to far east due to the baraclonic zone. If for any ting it heads NE over warmer depper waters it will strengthen and this will slow down and get locked in as per h5. NAM going off now.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Frank the problem is I think it sped up and ran ahead of the block, HP is supposed to be situated square to the NE of the low to lock it in, right now its N/NNW

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16

Correct, mentioned that this morning too. But some models have the High moving east today ahead of Hermine which is why she ends up stalling. Now we have to see if she retrogrades west or just stalls. Huge difference

NAM is coming out now

Looking a bit west

Notice the HP east of Maine

Yes Frank, they are a bit NW, but mostly suspect amped ARW members which I dont trust after hour 36ish. We all knows the SREFs in general are a grasp a straws bad group of models, seems like a group of members like NAM on meth (ARW) and another which is like the GFS on oxycontin (NMM).

Huge difference in the precip over NJ compared to other runs

Dont like messy H5 and apparent divergence and dry air over our area. H5 had a tight counterclockwise pull on it as depicted the other dsy, now its a strung out mess.

Sunday Noon. By Monday, I would expect this to deepen back to Tropical Storm strength

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Dont like messy H5 and apparent divergence and dry air over our area. H5 had a tight counterclockwise pull on it as depicted the other dsy, now its a strung out mess.

Lots of dry air around. I mentioned that in my 2nd update too. That's why those away from the coast should not see much rain. Less than 1 inch.

12z Nam is coming in more north and west

Looks like the NAM has a pretty good handle on this system right now. Upper level system not strong enough to pull the storm farther north. Surface system wil merge with upper system offshore, might slow up and meander some. Kinna likea winter storm system. This is just my opinion.