Re: Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

by **billg315** Sat Sep 03, 2016 8:36 am

Where I am rain will be a secondary concern. It's the wind and more importantly the surge that will determine whether this island goes under water or has structural damage.

by **rb924119** Sat Sep 03, 2016 8:40 am

Most of the SREF members that correctly portrayed H5 are bad for the coast.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Sep 03, 2016 8:42 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:If you look at it on radar would you say thats gonna hit us? I mean really? You can see its going to sleep with the fishes. Even if it does retrograde its just toying with us, it'll keep all the fun offshore.

You are not getting the point. Coastal flooding and possible wind damage is still very much on the table. A Hurricane that will stall for 2-3 days off the coast is going to be problematic for many people along the shore and a few miles inland. The rest of us are in wait and see mode to see if the retrograde comes to fruition. If it does, the wind will reach TS strength for much of the state. If it does not, we should be able to salvage the holiday weekend with just overcast and breezy conditions. Rain never looked like a big deal for those away from the coast.

Here is the surge forecast

Assuming the low comes in that close to the coast, if its as far away as its been trending as of 6z it'll be much much lower than that.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Sep 03, 2016 8:42 am

rb924119 wrote:Most of the SREF members that correctly portrayed H5 are bad for the coast.

Usually west biased beyond 30-40hrs

by **rb924119** Sat Sep 03, 2016 8:46 am

12z H5 analysis from ewall has a distinct H5 interaction that appears to be expanding the 582 dam contour. Phasing. Strengthening. Remains to be seen though until the next analysis. Have to use the meso page until then. Gonna be interesting.

by **rb924119** Sat Sep 03, 2016 8:49 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Most of the SREF members that correctly portrayed H5 are bad for the coast.

Usually west biased beyond 30-40hrs

I know. But I'm saying based on H5 I only looked at the individual members that had the actual heights portrayed correctly.

by **Quietace** Sat Sep 03, 2016 8:57 am

rb924119 wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Most of the SREF members that correctly portrayed H5 are bad for the coast.

Usually west biased beyond 30-40hrs

I know. But I'm saying based on H5 I only looked at the individual members that had the actual heights portrayed correctly.

Wow some Meteorology + critical thinking thrown in there....not modelology Wink

by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:00 am

Wow...stayed up to read the posts last night and went to bed feeling better..now looking at these posts..I am just down right confused..and worried .as you know by now we live off the Raritan Bay on the water...but we are fortunate to have the Floodgate....called the Floodgate office..and spoke to the supervisor just now and he said they are on alert and can take care of everything at any time....that makes me feel better..because during Irene they did not pump out soon enough and there were problems...with Sandy they closed the gates and pumped early...but with Sandy...there was a lot of warning...there will not be a lot of warning with this thing... I am really worried for my neighbors in Union Beach..who are still so exposed to what a surge can bring..a lot of them have raised..but not all and some are still in the process....and I know this is what comes with living by the water..lol...Thank you to all who are so dedicated and keeping us lay people up to date!! ps..my new toy came..Acurite 5 piece station(thank you Janet for recommending..it is up and running)

by **Quietace** Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:00 am

Ill post some current obs before I start my school work for the day. Precip is about to begin in Cape May,
Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 10 Nerad25

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 10 Nerad25

by **Quietace** Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:03 am

This is certainly ET by now....
Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 10 2016AL09_MIIWVRGB_201609031123

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 10 2016AL09_AMSUSR89_201609030757

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:06 am

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:07 am

Waiting for update 3

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:11 am

My predicted track and rule of thumb, as long as its east of the contintental shelf, feast in peace.

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 10 11lrghj

Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2 - Page 10 11lrghj

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:16 am

So does it still stall out or is it just going to continue NE

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:25 am

Largest pressure falls also occuring way out over the ocean, this thing is fetching for warm, moist water from the gulf stream and will try to stay in it as a tropical system.

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-21746-1472899007.gif

by **rb924119** Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:31 am

Looks like the convection Frank mentioned earlier might be trying to fire and wrap around a little bit.

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:34 am

When will we know for sure the direction of this thing?

by **WeatherBob** Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:37 am

Thank God it is trending away from the coast. It will do its loop far enough off shore and spare us the potential tragedy. Just a big breeze machine for us for a few days. However, tides can still run 2 to 4 ft above normal and the rip currents will be brutal.

by **Snow88** Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:37 am

Yes the models have shifted east but you can't let your guard down just yet. This will not be another Sandy or Irene. Sandy was way more powerful than this and Irene tracked right up the east coast.

by **Snow88** Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:38 am

WeatherBob wrote:Thank God it is trending away from the coast. It will do its loop far enough off shore and spare us the potential tragedy. Just a big breeze machine for us for a few days. However, tides can still run 2 to 4 ft above normal and the rip currents will be brutal.

It's not trending away yet and who knows if he will be more west. A lot of posts all over the internet this morning are like winter posts. ( It's over, It's over )

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:39 am

WeatherBob wrote:Thank God it is trending away from the coast. It will do its loop far enough off shore and spare us the potential tragedy. Just a big breeze machine for us for a few days. However, tides can still run 2 to 4 ft above normal and the rip currents will be brutal.

Hey man, we can get hit with a tropical storm without it being a tragedy, Sandy was a record low pressure beast of once-in-a-lifetime proportions.

by **WeatherBob** Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:39 am

NjWeatherGuy, thanks for that pressure fall map. That has sealed the deal for me where this baby is heading for! Basic meteorology!

by **Quietace** Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:41 am

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Largest pressure falls also occuring way out over the ocean, this thing is fetching for warm, moist water from the gulf stream and will try to stay in it as a tropical system.

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-21746-1472899007.gif

by **rb924119** Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:41 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:When will we know for sure the direction of this thing?

Not to sound like a jerk, but probably not until it's over lol It's just one of those situations where I think models will continue to flip-flop and it will just a be a now-cast. ET's/TT's can be fickle, and I think this is a prime example of that, especially since we could very well see BOTH occur over the next 60 hours.

by **Quietace** Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:42 am

WeatherBob wrote:NjWeatherGuy, thanks for that pressure fall map. That has sealed the deal for me where this baby is heading for! Basic meteorology!

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:42 am

Snow88 wrote:
WeatherBob wrote:Thank God it is trending away from the coast. It will do its loop far enough off shore and spare us the potential tragedy. Just a big breeze machine for us for a few days. However, tides can still run 2 to 4 ft above normal and the rip currents will be brutal.

It's not trending away yet and who knows if he will be more west. A lot of posts all over the internet this morning are like winter posts. ( It's over, It's over )

The trend has definitevely and undeniably been east across the board while the low is strong, as well as many models kicking the low out quicker. While it is still possible things change and things are still west from several days ago, they have been trending east for the past day.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Sep 03, 2016 9:42 am

Member of another board:

Wind gusts already up to 33mph reported on a LBI weather station. Not bad given Hermine's still distant location. The water pile-up has already begun for the shore.

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