Hurricane Hermine Discussion Part 2

Math23x7 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:The fact the 4k and the 12k NAM are far different raise questions to the handling of the storm by the model which has been inconsistent by all models to say the least. Closest 4k comes has a low 980s to 970s about if you drew a line south from the twin forks of LI and east from ACY. Closest 12k comes is about if you drew a line east of  LBI and south from Martha's Vineyard... and its only in the 990s.

Had the 8/30 12Z 4 km NAM verified, Hermine would have gone down to 923(!) mb in the Gulf:

Not implying either is better! Just a curiosity. However I do recall the 4k NAM nailing the blizzard of 2016 when the 12k OP was way bullish with like 5+" of QPF in the jackpot zones (my area) that ended up getting probably 2-3" worth.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-71.42,45.06,1351/loc=-74.068,40.462

Of course the 12z RGEM/CMC (probably will match up when it runs) brings it back... way west... somehow???

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

The recent Canadian verification scores for this storm were roughly the same as the UK/EURO (slightly lower, but not nearly as bad as GFS) but still, its the CMC, and this looks, well, impossible given the current look of the satellite loop, SLP location, 250mb, ect...

Then again, when was the last time the CMC led the pack and called a storm????.......

Correction, CMC/JMA/SREFs

12z JMA seems like it comes in a little closer too, but its weak, and the JMA

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=jma®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016090412&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=58

JMA

Lets see, the storm still moved NE from 2 hrs ago slightly, center isobar very close from being out of SPC range.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16

12z Ukie

Tom,

Not letting my guard down for teh coast but the impacts are not nearly what was forecasted and being shown yesterday at this time minus the euro basically. Eastern LI and Cape and Martha's plus Block Island now have to really watch imho. Too far east and not strong enough to do anything of great concern here. Even JB saying its over basically with minimal impacts on our area even the coast line. My sister in Belmar sating 8' swells and beach has a good number of sunbathers/ people out.

This was as usually is a hard forecast with tropical systems. lets learn a lesson - without a true block Negative NAO up here these trop systems will most likely go ots.

I have a bbcue to attend in another hour so til next one ciao!

Whatever this model is DWD ICON 12z comes close and strong again, anybody know?

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=dwd_icon&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=030&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=12&mod2=dwd_icon&hh2=030&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

Wow this has become a big cape cod threat now who would thpught. I should gone to friends beach house. This has been crazy. Can't believe any of the models still bring this way back west. I'm only in 30% chance winds now and we still have ts,warnings. Don't get it.

Ok, so we got the UK, CMC, JMA, and SREFs saying its coming back west a bit more.

UKIE sustained winds

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=UV10m&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=UV10m&hh2=060&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=042

I was at the beach at mantolokin nj this morning. All the beaches are closed and police don't let u go near but he waves were really small so not sure what to think at this time

^Govt ordered stupidity regardless of actual outcome. But check this out, 500mb layer current, wonder why they call it a block?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-74.84,36.66,1179/loc=-69.050,37.567

NAVGEM 12z (NAVY) is consistent with a far east inital swing like now, then capturing and closing off down in the southern mid Atl, and riding up the coast again.... very weird scenarios.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016090412&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=219

This run was much stronger for the second pass than the previous, and closer, 996 nearly onshore NJ on Friday if the Navy model is right....

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Ok, so we got the UK, CMC, JMA, and SREFs saying its coming back west a bit more.

UKIE sustained winds

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=UV10m&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=UV10m&hh2=060&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=042

Juan. I love you but give it up. Sunny days coming up. Just a little breezy

You people are obsessed. If it smells like s rat and looks like s rat and moves like a rat and you think it's s rat.... It's a rat!!!! Or something like that

syosnow94 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Ok, so we got the UK, CMC, JMA, and SREFs saying its coming back west a bit more.

UKIE sustained winds

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=UV10m&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=UV10m&hh2=060&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=042

Juan. I love you but give it up. Sunny days coming up. Just a little breezy

Juan?? Tom you mean.

syosnow94 wrote:You people are obsessed. If it smells like s rat and looks like s rat and moves like a rat and you think it's s rat....  It's a rat!!!!  Or something like that

LOL, syo and your not weather obsessed, yeah ok, lol But I kinda have to agree, and now a model showing the effects for the end of the week, no no no, I can't just get out already or come, one or the other.

Thanks everyone for all the analysis done. I rented a house in Holgate (LBI) for the week and hung around until today to see what was happening. I didn't want to get there and have to turn around home. I'm on my way and expect some beautiful seas.

Im not saying anythings gonna happen, but with the projected times and the complicated upper air setup nothing can be completely written. Trust me, I am still in the minimal impacts if any camp unless I see majority of evidence that points otherwise.

For example, it may have actually wobbled a bit to the NW if youve been checking the meso maps like I've said would be telling, real obs.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16

Yes, you can loop the past 4 hours. From -4 to -2 it went almost due east out of frame, than from -2-current it wobbled NW back into frame. Possibly insignificant.... true, as well as the fact that the precipitation is re-emerging on radar SE of our coast.

HRRR not giving up on it yet.....

Definitely did wobble NW but maybe a little too late. I never thought Hermine would get east of 70* longitude but it certainly did.

Dunnzoo wrote:HRRR not giving up on it yet.....

Tel the HRRR and whatever other crazy Canadian or Jamaican model that I'm covered in sunscreen hanging at the beach IN the water with my kids with a UV index of 10 for christs sake