Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

After 23rd which now doesn't look like high impact event we have nothing else well into begin Feb per last few runs of gfs. Stick a fork in winter she's done. Bring on spring if it's not gonna snow which it's looking unlikely.

How are you able to predict next week's storm will not be high impact? The EURO has over 2 inches of rain and gusty winds. That is high impact to me. It very well could be nothing but some rain showers but it's too early to tell.

As for winter, I guess you have been reading over my posts and failed to watch my video? It's going to get cold again. Snow does not always accompany cold, but it's a key ingredient...

yeah sorry guys I saw isotherm torch post and I wrote this when I was half asleep doesnt hold any ground sorry hsha. Yeah sroc pic about says it but I just saw that and had a syo moment jk james.

We've all had those moments, laugh it off and move on, apologies not necessary.

[sroc4]

CP check your personal messages.

Jman no need to apologize. Knee jerk reaction. We all get it. I for one will be off for the most part of this week as there will likely be a lot to track and watch come the end of the month. One could drive themselves crazy watching grass grow, or in this case wait for the pattern to change. Its coming but we have some time. Like Frank said we all have to have some patience right now.

[Quietace]

To continue my rant from the long-range Thread about LaGuardia Airport, how can on a good radiational cooling night Central Park be at 30 degrees Newark at 25 and LaGuardia at 32. It happens often. I bet the rest of Queens near LaGuardia is in the low 20s on a night like that. Maybe CP, mike, doc or dtone can explain. Anyway fun times ahead

I didn't have to wait very long for an example to actually occur. ..

700 AM EST MON JAN 16 2017


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Central Park   CLEAR     30  19  63 N3        30.47R
LaGuardia APRT CLEAR     32  18  56 CALM      30.46R
Kennedy INTL   PTCLDY    30  18  60 CALM      30.47R
Newark Liberty PTCLDY    26  18  71 NE6       30.46R WCI  19
Teterboro APRT CLEAR     26  20  77 CALM      30.46R
Bronx Bot Gard NOT AVBL
Wall St Helipt SUNNY     32  21  64 E3        30.47R
when I woke up my phone said 32* in Mt. Vernon at 6 30am.  check my weather gauge it reads 19*. closest reporting station to my house is LGA. LGA does not represent the north portions on nyc metro. I would bet my life there is not one area in northern queens or the Bronx above 25* this morning. I mean come on are they taking temps near a building vent that omits heat? there are many open area's inside LGA that would give a more accurate temp for this area. people are in for a surprise this morning when they head out as temps are well below nws sites.

CPK sometimes function as a mini suburb in the middle of city so its expected to be cooler than the airports. Despite that  CPK avg low is actually lower than LGA in Jan.
38/27 in CPK vs  39/26 at LGA.  My theory for that is CPK temp is taken in a heavly wooded area..(technically it doesnt meet nws offical standards) and it acts as a canopy limited radiational cooling on some nights.  Day to day though LGA is warmer.
I find unoffical temps I take to be warmer than CPK but cooler than LGA..usually closer to LGA though. I dont have a huge open yard so I cant replicate CPK conditions. I think LGA is a little warm, but almost all stations are airports so its useful for comparison sake. If your comparing data with Bos or DC for example, a heavily wooded park  vs airports in those cities throws things a little.
I find LGA  to be closer to what you'd experience  standing in Times Sq, or Main St Flushing, or Fordham rd. Any congested urban strip.
NW Queens is pretty congested and urbanized so its quite a UHI even without the airport. The bldgs just arent tall.
LGA's wx station is on the NW edge of the airport. If you zoom in on google earth you might be able to make it out.  Which way the wind blows in relation to the runway probably is a factor. Ive also read that a westerly wind blows UHI core   air from Manhattan toward LGA..dunno how valid that is.
Ive driven early morn into Westchester and I see temps plummet sometimes, mainly after you pass the Cross County.

http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KLGA

[HectorO]

Damn, next week looks like a torch. I know some have said not to panic but lets be honest. Warm weather in the future forecast almost always seems to come to fruition. It's the cold weather that flip flops. And this pattern change doesn't seem to be a change so much especially, if they only last a few days. Back when I was a kid we called them "cold fronts" . Right after things just get warm again. Time to start getting the grill ready!

[rb924119]

Ok, so the first two frames will be valid BEFORE the date in question, and the second two will be valid immediately after the last members move the system through. Note that there is no additional accumulation "padding" the totals from the event in question, as no other snow is recorded.

Before:




After:

[Frank_Wx]

Damn, next week looks like a torch. I know some have said not to panic but lets be honest. Warm weather in the future forecast almost always seems to come to fruition. It's the cold weather that flip flops. And this pattern change doesn't seem to be a change so much especially, if they only last a few days. Back when I was a kid we called them "cold fronts" . Right after things just get warm again.  Time to start getting the grill ready!

Next week is supposed to be warm. We're in a thaw. We'll be in one until the 25th. After the 26th is when it'll get cold again.

[jmanley32]

Holy crap 18z gfs. Frank if u think 2 inches of rain and high winds is high impact how about 7 to 10 inches on 18z for most of central to northern jersey. Mist other ateas aee at least 4 to 6 tgats a disasyer up here. Jesus if that were a snowstorm we would need a higher term than frankzilla.

[SoulSingMG]

I'm getting really tired of all this cold rain! Living in the city and needing to walk everywhere, it's EXHAUSTING.

Imagine if all this rain was SNOW?

[jmanley32]

I'm getting really tired of all this cold rain! Living in the city and needing to walk everywhere, it's EXHAUSTING.

Imagine if all this rain was SNOW?

Oh I hear ya, just wait for next week, if this verifies......Plus winds are strong to damaging for hrs 141-198!

[jmanley32]

This one is actually better the center of that area is 8.82 inches, holy crap. 8 inches of rain that could be 80 inches of snow! I have a feeling from the CMC to the Euro to the GFS all showing some kind of high impact rain and wind event that this could as Frank said yesterday or the day before BAD.

[jmanley32]

Opps I think I accidentally clicked report button sorry guys. Can you get nutleys post back up?

[Guest]

Hey. All you northern Jersey and Orange County ny folks always complaining about us S and E folks you finally "jackpot" according to this run. Congrats

[jmanley32]

Hey. All you northern Jersey and Orange County ny folks always complaining about us S and E folks you finally "jackpot" according to this run. Congrats

Nutley had posted saying this could trend colder, OMG if these amounts of qpf were realized but snow. Syo we can only hope!

[nutleyblizzard]

We need to keep an eye out for colder trends with future runs on next weeks storm. When you compare the 12z and 18z runs of the GFS, the blocking ridge trended west/stronger from the prior run. If this continues in ensuing runs, it would most certainly argue for an earlier coastal transfer like the CMC showed earlier today.

[jmanley32]

[jmanley32]

Winds CMC, holy Crap! With the intensity of precip if those 850 winds come down we go be looking at hurricane force gusts along coast and just inland verbatim on this run.

[jmanley32]

wow

[Guest]

Yes I posted this in 2 different threads!!!

What could you guys POSSIBLY be excited about. This could be IMHO the most frustrating weather event EVER. A sub 980 LP tracking SLOWLY over the BM in late January causing HEAVY RAIN over 2 days.

Cmon now.....

[Guest]

It could be worse, Syo. If your early call about my getting buried in snow from a more inland track is right, you'll get even more rain and high wind. And not being an ocean guy, I can't guess what effects it might have on tides. Or were you hoping that the system would create enough of its own cold air for you to get snow too?

[Guest]

Aresian you are getting crushed by snow period!! Be ready. As far as the ocean and tides go, I know it sounds weird/mean but if you choose to live ON the water this is something you need to prepare for. I never understood people living on the water and then being surprised/complaining when they flood. It is inevitable. Me personally, I hope we get crushed and lose power for a while. I have a wood-burning stove that heats my house and I like to see the chaos in unprepared people.

[Guest]

"I like to see the chaos in unprepared people"...

For that line, if the snow comes, I'm turning your snow man into a snow king.

[Guest]

I'm asking this here as Banter is more of a catchall... I know it's 5 days out and what not, but for my area the Euro is showing 850 temps below freezing with the wind switching from out of the east to out of the NW some time between 12z Monday and Tuesday. Does that bump the likelihood of a change over to frozen precip or will the surface temps be warm enough to keep everything as rain?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

...and you people on here don't agree with me that this would single-handedly be the most frustrating weather event to occur in the history of NYC for snow lovers. 4-5 feet of snow and 60+ MPH winds for 2 days.  This would be 1888  

If this verifies as rain it will be the greatest ever.......I can't even say it. IT's January 23rd FOR PETES SAKE!!!!!!!  

and yes I know it never was supposed to be a wintry event!

I have to agree, but if February ends up being epic it will be forgotten quickly.

It would be fascinating to see 4-5 feet of snow in NYC borough wide and have Central Park record 27.4 inches. Maybe that's what it will take to finally wake everyone up.

[Grselig]

"I like to see the chaos in unprepared people"...

For that line, if the snow comes, I'm turning your snow man into a snow king.  

You are the Joker from the Batman movies. You are an agent of chaos, A man who hates schemers. All those water people are schemers.

[Grselig]

...and you people on here don't agree with me that this would single-handedly be the most frustrating weather event to occur in the history of NYC for snow lovers. 4-5 feet of snow and 60+ MPH winds for 2 days.  This would be 1888  

If this verifies as rain it will be the greatest ever.......I can't even say it. IT's January 23rd FOR PETES SAKE!!!!!!!  

and yes I know it never was supposed to be a wintry event!

I have to agree, but if February ends up being epic it will be forgotten quickly.

It would be fascinating to see 4-5 feet of snow in NYC borough wide and have Central Park record 27.4 inches. Maybe that's what it will take to finally wake everyone up.

As CP said. It would totally suck if this were IT. Hopefully Feb is cold and record breaking snow. Book is still open. But shiit this winter is so far boring

[Grselig]

And I loved the Joker

[Frank_Wx]

Mountains of Cali will see 150 inches of snow.

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