HURRICANE MATTHEW

So many differing opinions and observations, long way to go it seems. I am guessing sunday or Monday will be when we start to have a much better idea, maybe not even until Tuesday.

GFS TRACK DOWN HERE LOOKS TO BE WINNER WINNER  CHICKEN DINNER



EURO WAS NEAR THE YUCATAN FOR CRYING ALL NIGHT

LOTS OF TIME - I like LC and my feeling is again the solar burst/flare is going to screw up the block somehow

OCT paths - climo

I wonder if we have hurricane Matt at 11am. I do see the ots but I don't think anything along ec can be ruled out yet.

Who knows what's going to happen it seems right now GOM is not going to happen or less likely so it's Ec vs Ots

skinsfan1177 wrote:Who knows what's going to happen it seems right now GOM is not going to happen or less likely so it's Ec vs Ots

right that's what I was saying. Even a scrape if it is indeed as strong as some GEFS show's wpuld b bad especially beaches wind field will likely expand too.

Favorable waters for rapid intensification - from the shear do not be surprised if it weakens as the eye gets exposed but once it turns north it has great HP - cant go over the shredder Hispaniola slowly or middle but more so to its right.

GFS is more west at 96 hours compared to 6z

still a bit more west at 114 hrs, 2mb stronger.

is it actually fl bound at hr 120? that would b new.

edit..nope nv back due n.

does not look good for NC, possibly our area if it stays west and not NE.

Looks like it is riding the coast

Ya id say so snow, landfall around NJ to LI anyone? Unless it turns abruptly.

Ruh Roh, even without a landfall we get a pretty decent storm already starting at hr 174, I understand those are 850mb winds.

Ya not gonna be a total miss. TS winds into the area already.

Gonna make landfall on tip of LI or RI it looks like. Absolute deluge and high winds, maybe to hurricane gusts.

1938 express track, LI hit then again in CT, wow what a run.

CMC is a fish storm

jmanley32 wrote:1938 express track, LI hit then again in CT, wow what a run.

I had a feeling the GFS wasn't done trending west. Let's see if the other models do the same. God help us if the EURO is correct with the intensity.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:1938 express track, LI hit then again in CT, wow what a run.

I had a feeling the GFS wasn't done trending west. Let's see if the other models do the same. God help us if the EURO is correct with the intensity.

It would be worse than 1938, 907mb is def a cat 5, i know pressures are not factored in but usually anything below 928mb is a cat 5. But thats damn hard to believe I would think a cat 1-3 if this were to transpire, and we are now moving up in time, now under 240 hrs and falling each run. The CMC has some other LP form over atlantic I think that effects the OTS, I dont even pay attention to the CMC much anymore.

WOW

If the GFS tack is right to make a coastal hit and the Euro is right with a sub 920mb storm ya god help us all...Even I'd be deathly affraid of something as unlikely as that.

Ukie is still way slower than the GFS and CMC

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144

And the blocking came back stronger which kept him locked into the coast.
this is like my son sleeping I swear - the roller coaster - blanket on, off fitted sheet and then boom the bed looks like a pile of straw come sunrise - could it be the same?

Anyway winds will easily be hcane force in this scenario and this would be terrible for the NJ Coast and into LI and CT shores. 16 hours plus of trop force winds and huge surf - saying possible 40' seas when he reves up - MADONNEE!!

GFS is

This storm is epicly huge, even when its at OBX we are already gettting outer banding to start on that run. Lets see if there is any kind of trend with other models and if GFS stops here and holds. Still really far out but getting closer.

amugs wrote:And the blocking came back stronger which kept him locked into the coast.
this is like my son sleeping I swear - the roller coaster - blanket on, off fitted sheet and then boom the bed looks like a pile of straw come sunrise - could it be the same?

Anyway winds will easily be hcane force in this scenario and this would be terrible for the NJ Coast and into LI and CT shores. 16 hours plus of trop force winds and huge surf - saying possible 40' seas when he reves up - MADONNEE!!

GFS is

LOL to the pic, not the run. Ya entire metro area and even way inland would be in big trouble on that run.

Notice the trend on the GFS over the last 48hr in the Atlantic regarding ridging.  Could be a big piece to the puzzle as the system gains latitude