HURRICANE MATTHEW

algae888 wrote:Today's GFS is on the easternmost side of the cone from official National Hurricane Center forecast by 8 a.m. Sunday. It is Northwest of the official location by at least 150 miles if not more. I would take the GFS with a grain of salt it is not going to be right

In what respects, the entire run, so you do not think a EC landfall is going to happen?

algae888 wrote:Today's GFS is on the easternmost side of the cone from official National Hurricane Center forecast by 8 a.m. Sunday. It is Northwest of the official location by at least 150 miles if not more. I would take the GFS with a grain of salt it is not going to be right

Agreed.

algae888 wrote:Today's GFS is on the easternmost side of the cone from official National Hurricane Center forecast by 8 a.m. Sunday. It is Northwest of the official location by at least 150 miles if not more. I would take the GFS with a grain of salt it is not going to be right

I would take every model now with a grain of salt but the GFS has plenty of support from the GEFS.

algae888 wrote:Today's GFS is on the easternmost side of the cone from official National Hurricane Center forecast by 8 a.m. Sunday. It is Northwest of the official location by at least 150 miles if not more. I would take the GFS with a grain of salt it is not going to be right

Reasoning? I am not saying you are incorrect but why?

sroc4 wrote:

algae888 wrote:Today's GFS is on the easternmost side of the cone from official National Hurricane Center forecast by 8 a.m. Sunday. It is Northwest of the official location by at least 150 miles if not more. I would take the GFS with a grain of salt it is not going to be right

Agreed.

You talking this run you mean or overall in the end all?

Quietace wrote:

algae888 wrote:Today's GFS is on the easternmost side of the cone from official National Hurricane Center forecast by 8 a.m. Sunday. It is Northwest of the official location by at least 150 miles if not more. I would take the GFS with a grain of salt it is not going to be right

Reasoning? I am not saying you are incorrect but why?

Hey whats up ace, you haven't chimed in at all on this till now, how ya been?

BTW need change title of thread to TS Mathew, US effect or not?

jmanley32 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

algae888 wrote:Today's GFS is on the easternmost side of the cone from official National Hurricane Center forecast by 8 a.m. Sunday. It is Northwest of the official location by at least 150 miles if not more. I would take the GFS with a grain of salt it is not going to be right

Reasoning? I am not saying you are incorrect but why?

Hey whats up ace, you haven't chimed in at all on this till now, how ya been?

I have been good. I only chime in when I feel like I need to.

Snow88 wrote:

algae888 wrote:Today's GFS is on the easternmost side of the cone from official National Hurricane Center forecast by 8 a.m. Sunday. It is Northwest of the official location by at least 150 miles if not more. I would take the GFS with a grain of salt it is not going to be right

I would take every model now with a grain of salt but the GFS has plenty of support from the GEFS.

I may end up being dead wrong and I am nowhere near as educated as the admin and mods here along with others but I am going with the GFS, dunno why just a feeling, again could be wrong and will admit defeat if so.

snow247 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Finally. A tropical storm named after me! :-D

Me too

It better not disappoint.

Niiiice, so we're uber invested! My friends are already ssshhing me and I haven't even gotten started yet! ;-)

HOLY CRAp look at the trough modelled in the west NOW - JESUS H Mary and Joseph

This looks beautiful by my eye as modelled

Quietace wrote:

algae888 wrote:Today's GFS is on the easternmost side of the cone from official National Hurricane Center forecast by 8 a.m. Sunday. It is Northwest of the official location by at least 150 miles if not more. I would take the GFS with a grain of salt it is not going to be right

Reasoning? I am not saying you are incorrect but why?

Ace I don't believe the GFS positioning is correct it is way off of National Hurricane centers official forecast location. It's off at almost every position for the first 4 days. So then how can we trust the GFS days 5 or later plus most of the more reliable guidance has its south of where the GFS is showing

Look at the trough and block setting up and he is getting pissed - this could be an 18Z run

amugs wrote:Look at the trough and block setting up and he is getting pissed - this could be an 18Z run

Wow

algae888 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

algae888 wrote:Today's GFS is on the easternmost side of the cone from official National Hurricane Center forecast by 8 a.m. Sunday. It is Northwest of the official location by at least 150 miles if not more. I would take the GFS with a grain of salt it is not going to be right

Reasoning? I am not saying you are incorrect but why?

Ace I don't believe the GFS positioning is correct it is way off of National Hurricane centers official forecast location. It's off at almost every position for the first 4 days. So then how can we trust the GFS days 5 or later plus most of the more reliable guidance has its south of where the GFS is showing

Whats the more reliable guidance? The NHC cone is basically a mean between the GFS/ECMWF if you take a look at the discussion. The usual prog for a uncertain scenario.

The GFS has held on that HP moving east and blocking Mathew and that trough has had subtle changes but this looks like it will capture. Mathew is mean hi-res 945mb.

Quietace wrote:

algae888 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

algae888 wrote:Today's GFS is on the easternmost side of the cone from official National Hurricane Center forecast by 8 a.m. Sunday. It is Northwest of the official location by at least 150 miles if not more. I would take the GFS with a grain of salt it is not going to be right

Reasoning? I am not saying you are incorrect but why?

Ace I don't believe the GFS positioning is correct it is way off of National Hurricane centers official forecast location. It's off at almost every position for the first 4 days. So then how can we trust the GFS days 5 or later plus most of the more reliable guidance has its south of where the GFS is showing

Whats the more reliable guidance? The NHC cone is basically a mean between the GFS/ECMWF if you take a look at the discussion. The usual prog for a uncertain scenario.

Euro eps and ukie

Uh boy, near due north, this looks bad....

This is going to slam close to NJK=

algae888 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

algae888 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

algae888 wrote:Today's GFS is on the easternmost side of the cone from official National Hurricane Center forecast by 8 a.m. Sunday. It is Northwest of the official location by at least 150 miles if not more. I would take the GFS with a grain of salt it is not going to be right

Reasoning? I am not saying you are incorrect but why?

Ace I don't believe the GFS positioning is correct it is way off of National Hurricane centers official forecast location. It's off at almost every position for the first 4 days. So then how can we trust the GFS days 5 or later plus most of the more reliable guidance has its south of where the GFS is showing

Whats the more reliable guidance? The NHC cone is basically a mean between the GFS/ECMWF if you take a look at the discussion. The usual prog for a uncertain scenario.

Euro eps and ukie

Wouldn't say they are any more reliable than other guidance, especially in a anomalous scenario as this one. Each suite should be treated fairly equal. Most scenarios are on the table with this. You'll see the entire pattern evolve more in the next day or two.

Snow88 wrote:This is going to slam close to NJK=

what the heck is NJK?

Holy Crap

Get ready NYC. WOW

Oy, when was the last time NYC had a direct hurricane impact? Not saying that will happen but just to even be on a model run and if this shows that wont be the first one.

OMG...