HURRICANE MATTHEW

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Also looks like GFS is caving to Euro intensity, I think I suggestd the possibility of Euro intensity and GFS track yesterday.

If you have EURO intensity with GFS 12Z track - then boda bing baby!!!

I know sick weenie mind - but we have no clue and neither do the model - pay attention to the 500mb maps and they will tell you some insight into the possible track.

Yeah for Maine, we would need it further south to feel much impact.

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Also looks like GFS is caving to Euro intensity, I think I suggestd the possibility of Euro intensity and GFS track yesterday.

If you have EURO intensity with GFS 12Z track - then boda bing baby!!!

I know sick weenie mind - but we have no clue and neither do the model - pay attention to the 500mb maps and they will tell you some insight into the possible track.

Yeah for Maine, we would need it further south to feel much impact.

Not today 12z I meant yesterdays!!

18z GFS coming in a little more slower and west, really close to Florida at hr 126. Going to be an interesting run

Opps was watching 12z gfs

Uh oh....hr 192 doesn't look good at all

WE HAVE PHASE JUST OFF LI - SEE LI !!!!



VENTRICE FTW HERE!!!!!!!!!!

Hr 210....landfall in Cape Cod

JMAN here are your winds - hybrid baby need it 100 South and we get it reall good

Lookin more in the present...doesnt look good for Jamaica?

Wow a retrograde into the cape, next stop NYC! Dosen't matter look at the wind field! We would still get TS effects. Cape cod would be in ruins.

amugs wrote:JMAN here are your winds - hybrid baby need it 100 South and we get it reall good

Wow 925mb winds 60kts plus even into the area, I have a bad feeling ventrice is right and this shifts again. I was wondering if the 18z would retrograde further south. I guess I win, still so far to go.

Dtone wrote:Lookin more in the present...doesnt look good for Jamaica?

Very concerned for them, wouldnt be surprised to see cat 5 impending on them.

Hmm, maybe a slower storm would give the the secondary trough Day 7-8 a chance to phase with Matthew. If the storm were fast, the Day 4-5 trough could miss him hence an OTS scenario. The 18z GFS was a very destructive solution. We'll see how this plays out over the weekend.

Look how the trough captures him and destroys Boston

Wow get a little busy at work and...well in the words of the great Ron Burgandy...that escalated quickly! I can't believe we are Cat 4 with possible additional strengthening. I am about to go out for an evening with my beautiful wife so unless I want to be in the dog house this weekend when it gets real interesting, I will be off radar tonight. Salute to all as many glasses of Vino will be had.

The good thing about a Boston landfall is Fenway Park would be destroyed.

Mugs from that wind map looks like cat 2 maybe 3? High res pressure is sub 940s. It actually intensifies a bit before landfall on cape, is this hybrid by this pt. Would def b stronger with winds than sandy, closer to the landfall area, lets see what 00z does, if the west continues then we may have FL landfall.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:The good thing about a Boston landfall is Fenway Park would be destroyed.

you are mean...

That run would give very strong effects to a large portion of the EC coastline from FL to carolinas then up here. Ugg another 10 days looks like. Exactly how I feel, lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1ptUOeO35M

941mb in latest recon

Did anyone think this would happen? I for one actually did not think it would ramp up this fast. I also wonder how much it will actually weaken after crossing the ilands at such high intensity. Then I see it regain in bahamas and if it tracks up EC I think it will be slow to weaken hence the risk to our area.

18z NAVGEM captures Matthew and destroys our area

Hi res on the approach toward cape is 936mb! Insane.

I know it's early but when are you anticipating this coming to nj/ny area?