Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

by **Radz** Sat Oct 01, 2016 9:53 pm

Hope its short lived but no one knows:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/SPBULL/MSG2760044.01.txt

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Oct 01, 2016 9:58 pm

Can confirm there is a GOES satellite outage and this will effect 00z model runs tonight.

Ugh...

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Oct 01, 2016 9:58 pm

It's a runaway hurricane. Everyone...run.

by **Radz** Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:00 pm

Last time there was a large GOES 13 outage, they put Goes 15 on full disc mode until 13 was repaired/replaced i believe...

by track17 Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:01 pm

Confused what is everyone talking about

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:01 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:It's a runaway hurricane. Everyone...run.

Imagine it comes back on and Matthew is barreling up the coast having briefly sped up to 200mph then slowed down again lol jk

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:01 pm

track17 wrote:Confused what is everyone talking about

No sattelite images to see Matthew or any of the eastern atlantic US.

by track17 Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:03 pm

Oh ok thank you

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:05 pm

GOES-East right now... #Matthew #oops pic.twitter.com/ZhSMNEQRS6
— Brian Adams (@Wx_Adams) October 2, 2016

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:06 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
GOES-East right now... #Matthew #oops pic.twitter.com/ZhSMNEQRS6
— Brian Adams (@Wx_Adams) October 2, 2016

LMFAO!! Frank you made me burst out laughing and I am alone lol

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:11 pm

So basically forget whatever the models show until this is fixed?

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:16 pm

Relax everybody GOES-East is back up and running.

by **Radz** Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:20 pm

The convection to the east, "Martha", is insane...

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:28 pm

Levi made mention of that convection being part of matthew being blown off from the winds coming across the ocean.

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:30 pm

Wow, thats the oddest thing I have ever seen (Its got stronger convection than matthew!), almost looks like its own tropical entitiy, rb made mention of the possibility that the models may be struggling as both have a LP and maybe it possible they do not know which to focus on. Rb you still thinking this if your still around? I wonder what the pressure is in there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/html5-rb-short.html

by **Radz** Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:39 pm

Eye has cleared out again, hard to tell if it was a true eye replacement cycle or not, but looking better again either way- interesting to see next official update

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:43 pm

To my untrained eyes it looks like a NW movement has started again.

by **Sanchize06** Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:43 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Wow, thats the oddest thing I have ever seen (Its got stronger convection than matthew!), almost looks like its own tropical entitiy, rb made mention of the possibility that the models may be struggling as both have a LP and maybe it possible they do not know which to focus on. Rb you still thinking this if your still around? I wonder what the pressure is in there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/html5-rb-short.html

Also looks like it's starting to move NW now, almost to 74W now

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:44 pm

Radz wrote:The convection to the east, "Martha", is insane...

Beginning to think Martha is a result of convergence between the easterlies and south winds due to Matthew's counter clockwise movement.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:46 pm

Now that I think about it, Levi mentioned in yesterday's video Columbia is pretty mountainous so there may be winds downsloping off the mountains. Between Matthew's circulation, the easterly trades, and the downsloping I think that is why Martha exists.

by **Sanchize06** Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:52 pm

11 PM Update: Everything the same, movement officially NNW at 7 mph now

by **Sanchize06** Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:54 pm

Cone shifts a little east, landfall now in Haiti

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:55 pm

Not everything, Matthew is now not expected to weaken, all the plots say major!

by **Radz** Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:56 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Now that I think about it, Levi mentioned in yesterday's video Columbia is pretty mountainous so there may be winds downsloping off the mountains. Between Matthew's circulation, the easterly trades, and the downsloping I think that is why Martha exists.

If thats the case, I'd expect we shall see it diminish as Matthew moves NW away from land

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:57 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:Cone shifts a little east, landfall now in Haiti

Thats a pretty subtle chage. overall its still west and wind probabilities now spread to the US. However slight.

by **jmanley32** Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:59 pm

Well Frank if you are right about this needing to pass 75, current cone does not look promising, what is your theroy behind this and how confident are you that it still couldnt effect the US if it stayed just east of 75 or 74.

by **Sanchize06** Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:02 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:Cone shifts a little east, landfall now in Haiti
Thats a pretty subtle chage. overall its still west and wind probabilities now spread to the US. However slight.

Yeah, still has a NNW track after landfall, a lot different than the NE track after landfall the EURO was showing yesterday. Looks like it's going to come down to how far west this can get to interact with the trough, the timing of the ULL exiting and timing of the trough and how much it phases. Going to be a long week lol

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