HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Well Frank if you are right about this needing to pass 75, current cone does not look promising, what is your theroy behind this and how confident are you that it still couldnt effect the US if it stayed just east of 75 or 74.

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:Cone shifts a little east, landfall now in Haiti

Thats a pretty subtle chage. overall its still west and wind probabilities now spread to the US.  However slight.

Yeah, still has a NNW track after landfall, a lot different than the NE track after landfall the EURO was showing yesterday. Looks like it's going to come down to how far west this can get to interact with the trough, the timing of the ULL exiting and timing of the trough and how much it phases. Going to be a long week lol

Hi-Res GFS initializes at 962 mb, as good as we're going to get I suppose

NHC Has Matthew 75.5w at 120hrs

Hr 42....GFS definitely coming in a bit stronger than previous runs and a tad west, a little more interaction with GOM trough

Hr 66....Moving NNW out of Cuba, still a tad west of 18z

Hr 66....Matthew is a tad west and western trough looks a little sharper...

Still slightly west through hr 102....going to come down to the timing and strength of the trough

At 114, Matthew is west of 18z by about 50 miles. The ULL is weaker and trough is stronger. Should result in a run closer to 12z than 18z GFS.

Wow!!! Hr 126 trough looks much stronger!!!

At 126, now in the same spot as 18z. Closeness to the coast will depend on trough-ridge partnership. How amplified does the ridge get and how quickly does the trough capture him. ULL is further east this run which should empower the ridge some

Hr 126...Location about the same now as 18z but much stronger trough

Now actually slightly east at hr 132 compared to 18z

Hr 150...definitely east now compared to 18z, earlier interaction with the trough though, trough is going to have to do some work

Biggest difference to me is the ULL was weaker allowing the ridge to amplify more. A very impressive block on the 00z GFS. The trough is a bit more progressive which may actually help capture the storm faster, whereas the 18z GFS was kinda late with it because it dug too much which slowed it down.

Matthew may be too far east for this trough to get him though, he's definitely east of 18z.

Trough really trying at hr 162, might be too far east though

The H5 vorticity in the trough is not consolidated at the base. I don't see how this swings back. Likely going to be a miss, let's see.

00z CMC is well out to sea.

00z GFS is also OTS. Trough did not dig enough, but I think the bigger issue was Matthew did not track as far west putting a lot of pressure on the trough.

This is consecutive runs in a row now that the GFS has trended east with track. Even though it was showing impacts over our area, the track was gradually shifting east each run. There is still a full 6 days of model runs (at least). We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Latest ensembles show all members offshore (GFS) even though I feel the EURO will not verify 100% (too slow) as usual I feel the overall soln will end up as a compromise between the two, with the CMC factored in as well which has been awfully consistent. As I said I felt this could be Joaquin part II in other words dipping south and bombing out and slowing down as it currently has done may cause it to miss the phase and head out to sea. In other words, a frusturating waste of time of tracking for weather weenies along the eastern seaboard.... again..... and latest runs seem to back up this theory, which it is nothing more than. There is a lot of time left and time for solutions to change, but feel the waffling GFS just doesnt have this thing nailed and it was just eye candy, but we track on. Ill be on night shift again tonight bringing in my thoughts as newest runs and obs come out. But as of now my thinking is shifting to OTS and minimum to no impacts to our area, besides maybe kicked up surf at the beaches, but its still too early to completely rule out anything.

Heading for Nova Scotia at hr 186, capture much too late

GFS just missed the trough. This is a clear nod towards the Euro. Right now, everything points to a miss but we are still 6 days away. Lets see what tomorrow brings. Night.

UKIE, the model that has also shown EC landfall, is also OTS.