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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

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HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 3 Empty Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by amugs Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:53 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Pretty much everyone in the area gets it bad, pretty well inland, a smidge west and in makes a central LI hit, that be even worse.  Not time yet to sound the alarm but yeah GFS has been getting more consistent on no OTS.  So if we get the turn past 74W does that mean the rest of the Euro is likely wrong too?

JMAN - we have ALOT of variables on the table to effect the track so we cant just go by what tis model is saying. No alarms sounding until I Frank gives the All Call. Temper the excitement.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:54 pm

Matthew is moving south now haha. 

Honestly, models have no clue. There's many ways for this storm to hit us unfortunately. GFS just showed us how ULL may not mean much if the trough and ridge is strong.

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Post by hyde345 Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:58 pm

Somebody please post 925mb wind maps when you have them please.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:58 pm

the euro comes out at in about an hour?
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:01 pm

Wow winds are rough with this run.


HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 3 Gfsne_10
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:02 pm

hyde345 wrote:Somebody please post 925mb wind maps when you have them please.
On it, it not pretty pretty much anyone from 25 miles to the coast is screwed on this run, at least cat 1 sustained winds.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:03 pm

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 3 Gfsne_11

Way more than 25 miles inalnd in NJ, I expect it to expand as it continues into next frame. Brutal.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:05 pm

Cool thing about these maps frank shared me to the link is that u can click ur exact area, mine says 72kts! And I am not even on the water.
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Post by Snow88 Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:06 pm

GEFS is right near the coast

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/gfs-ens/current/12z/GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_na_f174.png
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:06 pm

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 3 Gfsne_12
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Post by hyde345 Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:06 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:Somebody please post 925mb wind maps when you have them please.
On it, it not pretty pretty much anyone from 25 miles to the coast is screwed on this run, at least cat 1 sustained winds.

Thanks
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:08 pm

Wow 70-90kts around NYC wow!

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 3 Gfsne_13

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:10 pm

Landfall is actually RI, man misquamicut will be wiped off the map again!

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 3 Gfsne_14
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:11 pm

Most of this mixes to the ground versus the 850's right? Especially with all the heavy precip, or is this not like t0storms and mixing down is not a issue?

If this were winter it would be the most epic blizzard of all time.
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Post by Snow88 Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:21 pm

Navgem is a monster
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:23 pm

Snow88 wrote:Navgem is a monster

im still wait for it on tt, where u looking?
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:26 pm

I can only see it out to 144 hrs on 06z, does it get captured?
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Post by amugs Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:35 pm

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 3 Captur10

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:38 pm

Wow 2mph due south, wth?!!

HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn" - Page 3 2pm_co10
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:48 pm

Where do I find the NAVGEM out to 180? I hear its a huge hit and wanted to have the link. TT only 144 and not loading also wxbell only 144 hrs.
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Post by Snow88 Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:50 pm

WTF is M?
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Post by Snow88 Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:51 pm

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/index.html?tab=global#global
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:52 pm

Snow88 wrote:WTF is M?
Major, so its progged to regain once out of bahamas....
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:54 pm

Snow88 wrote:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/index.html?tab=global#global

weird that link takes me to a page that says not private back to safety?
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:12 pm

Euro looks east and slower.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:15 pm

Direct landfall on haiti...
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Post by RJB8525 Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:20 pm

wow a cat 5..huge monster. looking at it gives me a pit in my stomach feeling
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