October 2016 Observations & Discussions

You are prob right Frank

Everything vs the GFS
Models are trending wetter with this system like they did with Matthew.

Umm 12z cmc 2 ft snow for northern vt at hr 90 and snow all way down to northern hudson valley. Don't but it but wow. And even gfs gives us rain now but cmc and euro are wettest.

amugs wrote:

yep looks like this weekend could end in a significant snow event for northern areas. That's a big change from earlier in wk.

Euro continues to trend wetter in spots with snow in New england

Wow 85° here for the high. Its for to be a record

skinsfan1177 wrote:Wow 85° here for the high. Its for to be a record

Records everywhere today.

It does seem like models are trending wetter for those at and east of NYC. Will have to be watched closer.

Nor'easter making a comeback, ha!

Euro

Cold fall feel here peeps - get out the firewood this weekend and hot cocoa

Nice

Flakes for NE and NY state into EPA and Possibly NW NJ and Mid HV

skinsfan1177 wrote:Wow 85° here for the high. Its for to be a record

Felt great! Hubby and I took a ride and had lunch and drinks outside at Jenk's. Beautiful day!

Pretty impressive Heatwave for Mid October many records were broken today and LaGuardia had three consecutive broken records in a row. Now enough with this heat on to late fall and winter

Frank_Wx wrote:Nor'easter making a comeback, ha!

Sure has, did you see the Euro wind gust maps holy crap, I mean not insane but if they verified a prolonged on and off period of 30-55mph gusts, higher possibly at shore. Rain totals a few inches plus just east of NYC, seems to be a real threat needle for that access of rain, and Euro has a foot of snow upstate! Wouldn't mind seeing that but I know we wont so ill settle for some rain and advisory to high wind level winds. Of course it seems the euro always overdoes the gusts. But its not like a passing front, its the pressure even before and after the rain for us. We shall see, but never can put things off the table. Now just one question, is this due to the tropical system or the other way you said the noreaster could happen by the trough digging so far south and making its own lp?

I am looking forward for the nor easter for sat I mean really 85 * and its Oct 19 already I hope we are done with the 80s  bring back our fall please

Got to 86*
Records everywhere today. Park hit 85. LGA 86 which makes 3 straight record highs there. Newark was 87* Even along the water it got to the mid 80s.

Dunnzoo wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Wow 85° here for the high. Its for to be a record

Felt great! Hubby and I took a ride and had lunch and drinks outside at Jenk's. Beautiful day!

It was so nice and yes a great day for jenks. Locals summer

Welcome to 2016

The 18z GFS has 0 inches of rain for everyone this Friday, while other guidance has 2 or more inches. If this were a snowstorm with 10:1 ratios we'll be trying to figure out if we'll get 20 inches of snow or nothing. Welcome to the age of modeling.

Understand the threat for a coastal storm, mainly for NYC on east, is there. Those west of NYC won't see much in my opinion.

I had a feeling some models were over-doing the precip for the area on Friday. In my blog on Monday I mentioned how the high latitude blocking will not get established until after this event, and we remain in a progressive pattern. EURO tends to slow the flow down even though we have a ridge in the west rolling east as a trough crashes into the PAC NW. I would expect less than an inch of rain today through tomorrow. GFS and CMC have little rain for the area now. I would expect this to remain the case. EURO did not handle this very well, at all.

Frank_Wx wrote:I had a feeling some models were over-doing the precip for the area on Friday. In my blog on Monday I mentioned how the high latitude blocking will not get established until after this event, and we remain in a progressive pattern. EURO tends to slow the flow down even though we have a ridge in the west rolling east as a trough crashes into the PAC NW. I would expect less than an inch of rain today through tomorrow. GFS and CMC have little rain for the area now. I would expect this to remain the case. EURO did not handle this very well, at all.

GFS never bit on the rain

GFS for the win

Snow88 wrote:GFS for the win

With a stronger polar jet for this upcoming winter I am going to side more with the GFS on winter storm this year as it usually handles northern stream systems better.

Wow we are giving the GFS the win before the final whistle?  Prob true but Bold none the less esp for isolated areas.  There is a fair amt of vorticity rotating through at 850mb.  Ill give the GFS the win after the game has been played.  

Scott todays nam 4k nam and rgem all have nyc metro at .25" or less. Higher totals Well east and west across Eastern Long Island in eastern PA. I don't think we'll see over an inch of rain from this which is what the GFS has been showing all along. It's amazing how often one model verifies against all the other guidence but yes let's wait and see what happens

What's interesting to note on all guidance for the next few weeks is the development of large and intense low pressure systems in various locations across the u.s. and Canada. Not from Southern systems that tap into the Gulf but more Northern stream that develop within the thermal gradient which I think is what will happen this winter. The ingredients are there Arctic intrusions with a warm atlantic in a warming climate. doesn't mean everyone will end up snow storms for us but should be some intense storms this year

Looking at the ao and nao the last few days shows sharp spikes and drops over the next 10 days. Good ingredient for strong systems hopefully we can get this in December January February

If you kept off from turning the heat on thus far, you will need it Tuesday night.