Long Range Thread 13.0
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
The damn primary drives up warm air into the area ahead of the storm and we end up as rain. we're going to need the primary to transfer quicker for things to get interesting.algae888 wrote:mugs that block in c/Canada stays there for 5 days. nothing cutting with that look..
I would give us a 25% chance of snow the next 10 days in the midst of the torch! pattern change after. fun times ahead
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
nut this is ens 2 m temps for 1st system sat 7am and 1pm
then 2nd system tues/ wens 7am and 1 pm.
not to far off upp/30's / low 40's so if system bombs out it will produce it's own cold air. agree set up is not great with regards to cold air but remember we are in late jan so cold will be available further up in atmosphere. we need right track and bomb out south of us and we can snow.
then 2nd system tues/ wens 7am and 1 pm.
not to far off upp/30's / low 40's so if system bombs out it will produce it's own cold air. agree set up is not great with regards to cold air but remember we are in late jan so cold will be available further up in atmosphere. we need right track and bomb out south of us and we can snow.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
algae888 wrote:frank not seeing +++ just + which we can work with in late January. look at this signal on gefs and geps some one in our area will snow with this track..Frank_Wx wrote:Insane block in south central Canada on the EURO. It does some odd things at 500mb, but the signal for a high impact event is there. I will not discount snow but I find it highly improbable. I don't think the pattern is ready for snow that soon after seeing +++ temp departures.
Temps departures in Canada are +20 or higher
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Too much of an antecedent air mass.
We should be monitoring next week's threat for high impact rain and wind.
We should be monitoring next week's threat for high impact rain and wind.
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
yes frank anomoly
actual
obviously a weak system will not do it however if a low bombs out s/n j coast we will snow
actual
obviously a weak system will not do it however if a low bombs out s/n j coast we will snow
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
the trend for this upcoming stretch has been colder 2m temps here are gefs from 12 z thurs valid for 18z sat and then todays 12z valid same time frame
the trend is def colder. we were forecast to be in the 50's for much of this week and weekend. that looks highly unlikely att.
the trend is def colder. we were forecast to be in the 50's for much of this week and weekend. that looks highly unlikely att.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
It's the overnight temps that will keep temp departures at high levels. We should be in the low 30's (upper 20's in some spots) this time of year. Low's will be in the upper 30's to low 40's. That is where your +++ comes from. At least +5 above normal.
Yes, next week could trend colder. Just not seeing it.
Yes, next week could trend colder. Just not seeing it.
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
HP placement is best for New England
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
So I guess I am a bit late to the new discussion of a high impact storm next tues or wed? Wind driven rain being high impact? So what types of winds are we talking, saw that tweet bout CMC, talking hurricane force winds? That would be high impact for sure, but I saw GFS does not have as pronounced a system, CMC and Euro though look like they could be pretty strong. Guess we won't know specifics until later in the week, I for one just hope it holds off from monday cuz im visiting a friend in CT and driving home Monday afternoon.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Okay the fact the GFS is not the strongest and showing 60-75 kt 925mb winds over much of the coastal plain is def concerning. Plus a buttload of rain, man if it could only b snow, Al ur not giving up on that are ya LOL
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
The euro is nuts, can't see it in smaller steps but on tt, thats one heck of a LP, there would def b beach and tree damage, not to mention flooding, honestly doesn;t look like a fun time to me. U all know wind is exciting to me but when its winter id much rather it be snow so I can go out in it, a soaking rain no thanks.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Arewe still looking at possible good snow storm in 27th-5th time frame?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
SoulSingMG wrote:Not sure I remember a rainstorm getting so much buzz during the Winter....
Yes March 2010 we had wind gusts to 70+ mph and a lot of tree and power damage, along with some rain but not as much as this is showing. Not sure about the other month.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Found both of them, look at NY / NJ impacts Dayummm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/December_1992_nor'easter
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2010_nor'easter
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
jmanley32 wrote:Arewe still looking at possible good snow storm in 27th-5th time frame?
Yes Jman and soon I think we are going to need multi threads for all the possible events
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
sweet, check out links to those two storms they referenced in the tewwets i just posted the wiki links.skinsfan1177 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Arewe still looking at possible good snow storm in 27th-5th time frame?
Yes Jman and soon I think we are going to need multi threads for all the possible events
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
[quote="jmanley32"]Okay the fact the GFS is not the strongest and showing 60-75 kt 925mb winds over much of the coastal plain is def concerning. Plus a buttload of rain, man if it could only b snow, Al ur not giving up on that are ya LOL
jon with this look I will not give up. frank always says don't worry about temps this far out. 850's are warm and we know we will have marginal cold air warm by jan standards but i'm sure there are some hits in there. we need to know where the primary goes when the transfer ooccurs and if lp bombs out. at least inland areas should be okay with this setup
jon with this look I will not give up. frank always says don't worry about temps this far out. 850's are warm and we know we will have marginal cold air warm by jan standards but i'm sure there are some hits in there. we need to know where the primary goes when the transfer ooccurs and if lp bombs out. at least inland areas should be okay with this setup
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
algae888 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Okay the fact the GFS is not the strongest and showing 60-75 kt 925mb winds over much of the coastal plain is def concerning. Plus a buttload of rain, man if it could only b snow, Al ur not giving up on that are ya LOL
jon with this look I will not give up. frank always says don't worry about temps this far out. 850's are warm and we know we will have marginal cold air warm by jan standards but i'm sure there are some hits in there. we need to know where the primary goes when the transfer ooccurs and if lp bombs out. at least inland areas should be okay with this setup
true enough, would love to have 3-4 ft snow, per cmc rain of 3-4 inches would drop close to that amount of snow. we can dream. We will know soon enough, one week away or so. Good pt on the bombing out, the october snowstorm would not have produced several years ago had it not bombed out pulling in its own cold air.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Just gonna throw this out there........BLIZZARD OF 1888. Just sayin'
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Plus, with those strong withs, and that much convection I would think most if not all at least 925mb winds would come down to surface, easy gusts verbatim to 75mph+ on coast and into NYC metro. Long ways to go, will be looking for franks thread and input.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Oh now u just made my heart skip a beat lolrb924119 wrote:Just gonna throw this out there........BLIZZARD OF 1888. Just sayin'
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
rb924119 wrote:Just gonna throw this out there........BLIZZARD OF 1888. Just sayin'
HOW DARE YOU
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
jmanley32 wrote:Oh now u just made my heart skip a beat lolrb924119 wrote:Just gonna throw this out there........BLIZZARD OF 1888. Just sayin'
LMFAOOOO I couldn't help myself, but hey; there's always a chance ahahaha
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
aaahhhhh Blizzard of 1888 aaaahhhhhhh
Ok my image of Homer did not upload. doh
Ok my image of Homer did not upload. doh
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Oh I remember the March 2010 storm. Not good. Had just moved into my old apartment. Wind and rain was intense mid-storm water started pouring in around my window frames. It was a mess (glad I was in an Apt., not my own house. And here's what it did to Main Street in Bound Brook:
https://youtu.be/Ty7PZbFaw-M
https://youtu.be/Ty7PZbFaw-M
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
Looks like we will have lots of vorts to track.
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 13.0
We often talk of a major event to dislodge a pattern and change it. Perhaps an intense coastal storm, even if it is only rain - not snow - is heralding the onset of the colder snowier pattern Frank and others have been alluding to for end of Jan./first half of Feb.
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