January 22nd-23rd High Impact Storm

Seeing the RGEMs H5 also makes me feel better, as it is even slightly positively tilted and a bit deeper at its hour 48 versus the 12z GFS neutral axis, closed, and slightly weaker version. Could also be grasping at straws. Just pointing out observations.

billg315 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:What makes me feel a bit more confident is upon inspection of the SREFs, is that many of them have a similar H5 evolution to the GFS versus the NAM, and because the NAM and SREFs utilize the same basic dynamical core, it might just be coming down to a few particular parameterizations.

Whoa, whoa. "parameterizations" is too complex a word for me. I deal better with large-scale big picture words. (there's a joke in this comment; if nobody gets it, it's probably because it's just not very funny. lol).

I think I got it lmao parameterization: the act of defining a particular aspect of the atmosphere with a set value or algorithm that is not physically observable. For example, a big one is cloudy physics. Since nobody is just sitting up in the sky observing how every cloud is formed, they assign the models with a particular algorithm, or set of equations and steps to follow, so the model can compute an approximation of that process. Believe it or not, they can lead to large errors sometimes by the end of model runs, especially short-range and high-res guidance which is running many more computational functions than globals, so the errors propagate and grow exponentially faster.

GFS looks pretty much the same at H5 through 54 versus 12z, if anything, it's slightly deeper with our southern low.....

If anybody was going to get it rb, I figured it would be you. haha. and thanks for the explanation. It's sort of what I thought it meant. but you explained it much better than I joked about it. lol

Our ridge behind our southern system is noticeably more amplified through 60. It's also located further west, more in the actual PNA region. This could be a big run, here folks....

jmanley32 wrote:Wherte are frank and sroc, it is odd. Frank did say he had to look this over tonight o maybe he is or is just too busy with work.

I wouldn't worry Jman. If I know Frank and sroc, they are looking at this from every angle, at every level and with every possibility in mind so that when they do next post on it, they will be able to give a comprehensive explanation as to what they think we can expect.

Through 72 Canadian ridge looks a bit stronger and our southern low is definitely stronger; by a full 6 dam.

HOUR 84 IT'S COMING. Whether rain, snow, or the end of the world, it's coming ahaha

lmao. something is always coming. I sure as hell hope it ain't the end of the world.

This is setting us up for the biz:

Terrible GFS run for everyone except for Central New England northward

Warm and rainy

Through 96 H5 low is deeper and maybe 50 northwest of 12z. Precip shield is going to explode these next few frames with the coupled jets.

A 990 mb low, deepening and about to move over the Delmarva cannot be good news for the Jersey Shore regardless of what precip type we are looking at.

Wherever you see the blues I'd be willing to bet that's ridiculously heavy snow:



CCB band is CRAZY

jmanley32 wrote:rb according to wxbell map, et that fell through hr 90 was snow to the coast!

CMC so far through 72 looks to be taking similar trends to the GFS.....

Precip shield through 90 is MUCH more organized on the 00z. D@mn.

H5 low is roughly the same intensity but about 75 miles further south than 12z through 90.

I think the CMC snow map might send somebody into cardiac arrest looking at 850's through 90 if they hold aha waiting for more frames.......