January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

Through 60, about the same strength versus 00z but the two trough axes are definitely different, namely the Upper Midwestern one. Southern stream is still neutral over the Southeast.

Not as deep through 72, but northwest by about 75 miles at H5, and more at the surface. Ughhh

EURO is warm but also dry. However, the winds are insane. This is turning into a wind event.

Actually, it's not that dry.

Look at these 850 winds YIKES!!

Euro winds are increasing each run. Finally one I'm not over hyping lol

It's all ahead of the warm front though, once that goes through the wind will shut right off like a switch. Very interesting setup.

SELT BELT YOURSELVES IN WE GOIN FOR A RIDE AUNT BEE!!

Frank_Wx wrote:

omg 70 to 75 mph in nyc and southern westchester good god. Goodbye power.

We might end up in Kansas, Dorothy!!!

The winds will be the main concern. Every model has it gusting to or even over 60 mph near the coast.

rb924119 wrote:It's all ahead of the warm front though, once that goes through the wind will shut right off like a switch. Very interesting setup.

EURO Wind for NYC:

30-40 mph between 1am-7am Monday
40-50 mph between 7am-1pm Monday
50-60 mph between 1pm-7pm Monday
25-35 mph between 7pm-1am Tuesday

Bad.

rb924119 wrote:It's all ahead of the warm front though, once that goes through the wind will shut right off like a switch. Very interesting setup.

the most intense rb like frank said long duration 40ish. Still 12 hrs so 50 to 70 and wow tgat concentrated area over nyc metro that's bad bad. Trees so shallowly rooted.

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:It's all ahead of the warm front though, once that goes through the wind will shut right off like a switch. Very interesting setup.

EURO Wind for NYC:

30-40 mph between 1am-7am Monday
40-50 mph between 7am-1pm Monday
50-60 mph between 1pm-7pm Monday
25-35 mph between 7pm-1am Tuesday

Bad.

so the gusts to 65 or higher on euro u don't think will reach that? Are these gusts or sustained?

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:It's all ahead of the warm front though, once that goes through the wind will shut right off like a switch. Very interesting setup.

EURO Wind for NYC:

30-40 mph between 1am-7am Monday
40-50 mph between 7am-1pm Monday
50-60 mph between 1pm-7pm Monday
25-35 mph between 7pm-1am Tuesday

Bad.

I'm not disagreeing that it will be bad lol I'm just saying it's gonna go from 60 to 0 real quick lmao it won't be a gradual process.

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:It's all ahead of the warm front though, once that goes through the wind will shut right off like a switch. Very interesting setup.

EURO Wind for NYC:

30-40 mph between 1am-7am Monday
40-50 mph between 7am-1pm Monday
50-60 mph between 1pm-7pm Monday
25-35 mph between 7pm-1am Tuesday

Bad.

so the gusts to 65 or higher on euro u don't think will reach that? Are these gusts or sustained?

That is wind not gusts. Gusts on the EURO are over 70 mph for some

What do u think it will b like out in eastern ct monday morning into midday?

Great post Frank! The trend on the GFS and CMC have been to deepen the heights out ahead as well as deepen the trough axis. Also, the 850mb and 700mb low have trended west as well, so it makes sense as to why we're seeing less in the way of snow. 12Z EURO makes sense with its track. Rather cross over DE and SNJ like the GFS shows, it comes up to about WKY, then transfers off the VA coast before tracking parallel to the NJ coast. That moisture feed is rather impressive! Still run the risk of dry slot if a track as close as that happens.

The coast will be toast

HeAring Euro may have had convective feedback issues

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:It's all ahead of the warm front though, once that goes through the wind will shut right off like a switch. Very interesting setup.

EURO Wind for NYC:

30-40 mph between 1am-7am Monday
40-50 mph between 7am-1pm Monday
50-60 mph between 1pm-7pm Monday
25-35 mph between 7pm-1am Tuesday

Bad.

so the gusts to 65 or higher on euro u don't think will reach that? Are these gusts or sustained?

That is wind not gusts. Gusts on the EURO are over 70 mph for some

dear lord I was wondering. Looks like I'm in the bullseye for that 12 hr period. Interesting question
Since sandy they made new parameters. Would this b a high wind warning or a tropical storm or hurricane warning. Don't say its stupid as the nws said if the same damage is expected regardless of tropucal nature they would issue as needed. A high wind warning just wouldn't seem to irk the public at all.

I think watches for wind may be issued by tomorrow night or Sunday 12z.

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:It's all ahead of the warm front though, once that goes through the wind will shut right off like a switch. Very interesting setup.

EURO Wind for NYC:

30-40 mph between 1am-7am Monday
40-50 mph between 7am-1pm Monday
50-60 mph between 1pm-7pm Monday
25-35 mph between 7pm-1am Tuesday

Bad.

so the gusts to 65 or higher on euro u don't think will reach that? Are these gusts or sustained?

That is wind not gusts. Gusts on the EURO are over 70 mph for some

dear lord I was wondering. Looks like I'm in the bullseye for that 12 hr period. Interesting question
Since sandy they made new parameters. Would this b a high wind warning or a tropical storm or hurricane warning. Don't say its stupid as the nws said if the same damage is expected regardless of tropucal nature they would issue as needed. A high wind warning just wouldn't seem to irk the public at all.

High Wind Warning. Or Wind Advisory. Especially Upton, they never issue HWW's usually. Def NOT trop or hurricane advisories as this is not a tropical system. They didn't even issue tropical storm or hurricane warnings with Sandy.

Would somebody please post the WxBell Euro precip totals map for New England?

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:It's all ahead of the warm front though, once that goes through the wind will shut right off like a switch. Very interesting setup.

EURO Wind for NYC:

30-40 mph between 1am-7am Monday
40-50 mph between 7am-1pm Monday
50-60 mph between 1pm-7pm Monday
25-35 mph between 7pm-1am Tuesday

Bad.

so the gusts to 65 or higher on euro u don't think will reach that? Are these gusts or sustained?

That is wind not gusts. Gusts on the EURO are over 70 mph for some

dear lord I was wondering. Looks like I'm in the bullseye for that 12 hr period. Interesting question
Since sandy they made new parameters. Would this b a high wind warning or a tropical storm or hurricane warning. Don't say its stupid as the nws said if the same damage is expected regardless of tropucal nature they would issue as needed. A high wind warning just wouldn't seem to irk the public at all.

High Wind Warning. Or Wind Advisory. Especially Upton, they never issue HWW's usually. Def NOT trop or hurricane advisories as this is not a tropical system. They didn't even issue tropical storm or hurricane warnings with Sandy.

Yes my pt. They changed that after sandy the way they issue thimgs nvm. This will b a warning no way we get gusts to 70mph and advisory. That's winds 40 to 50 gusts. Franks post is sustained not gusts.