January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Jan 20, 2017 2:24 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:It's all ahead of the warm front though, once that goes through the wind will shut right off like a switch. Very interesting setup.

EURO Wind for NYC:

30-40 mph between 1am-7am Monday
40-50 mph between 7am-1pm Monday
50-60 mph between 1pm-7pm Monday
25-35 mph between 7pm-1am Tuesday

Bad.
so the gusts to 65 or higher on euro u don't think will reach that? Are these gusts or sustained?

That is wind not gusts. Gusts on the EURO are over 70 mph for some
dear lord I was wondering. Looks like I'm in the bullseye for that 12 hr period. Interesting question
Since sandy they made new parameters. Would this b a high wind warning or a tropical storm or hurricane warning. Don't say its stupid as the nws said if the same damage is expected regardless of tropucal nature they would issue as needed. A high wind warning just wouldn't seem to irk the public at all.

High Wind Warning. Or Wind Advisory. Especially Upton, they never issue HWW's usually. Def NOT trop or hurricane advisories as this is not a tropical system. They didn't even issue tropical storm or hurricane warnings with Sandy.
Yes my pt. They changed that after sandy the way they issue thimgs nvm. This will b a warning no way we get gusts to 70mph and advisory. That's winds 40 to 50 gusts. Franks post is sustained not gusts.

IF models still show these kind of winds in two days, yeah, likely a HWW. Remember tho, Jman: the changes made after Sandy within the NWS advisory protocols was due to Sandy's storm surge. The only wind warning they'd issue with a storm like this (I'm pretty certain) would be High Wind. At any rate, it would be nice to actually see a true wind storm around here! Obviously minus any of the damage that would ensue...
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 20, 2017 2:59 pm

Well with wind comes damage can't have one or other. Frank has been on the winds as moat others have so I'm not backing off that this is the one time it will pan out. If I'm wrong fine no biggie. That comes with weather even pros.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

Post by billg315 on Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:38 pm

It is currently pouring rain. My backyard has been relatively soft the last couple weeks with occasional rain and two minor snow events. This storm promises even more heavy rain. I'm guessing we don't need winds much in excess of 30 or 40 mph to bring down trees given these ground conditions.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:43 pm

Jersey shore is in big trouble not good at work today they had no idea a storm was even coming no preperations
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

Post by billg315 on Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:45 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Jersey shore is in big trouble not good at work today they had no idea a storm was even coming no preperations

Yeah, that's an excellent point too. Didn't hear anyone talking about it until I sent my coworkers an email advising them to watch the forecasts. If the forecast doesn't have the word "snow" in it this time of year, people tune it out. I think a lot of people might get caught sleeping on this storm.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:52 pm

billg315 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Jersey shore is in big trouble not good at work today they had no idea a storm was even coming no preperations

I said to my supervisor at dpw you guys been following the Storm he says what storm lol. I said the nor Easter he says for snow. I say no the rain and strong winds he says who cares I want white gold for overtime. I say we may get the overtime get the chainsaws ready lol

Yeah, that's an excellent point too. Didn't hear anyone talking about it until I sent my coworkers an email advising them to watch the forecasts. If the forecast doesn't have the word "snow" in it this time of year, people tune it out. I think a lot of people might get caught sleeping on this storm.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:53 pm

billg315 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Jersey shore is in big trouble not good at work today they had no idea a storm was even coming no preperations

Yeah, that's an excellent point too. Didn't hear anyone talking about it until I sent my coworkers an email advising them to watch the forecasts. If the forecast doesn't have the word "snow" in it this time of year, people tune it out. I think a lot of people might get caught sleeping on this storm.
NAM holding on the winds even upped a bit looks like. Yeah my concern too muddy, 30-40, 50-70 go be a disaster. Like frank said may be first test for trump.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:59 pm

NAM is crazy, winds about 50-70 gusts and precip is not done at 84 but already 3+ inches around NYC area and jersey.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

Post by amugs on Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:10 pm

Snow for the NNJ and EPA and..... Northern frontier lady and gents... I give the  12z NAM meso model


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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

Post by amugs on Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:11 pm

Hi res models do well with convection of these storms

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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

Post by lglickman1 on Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:12 pm

based on the amount of precipitation this is supposed to spit out wouldnt we think that upstate NY would be getting more snow? Or are they going to change over to rain at some point?

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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:16 pm

STORM WATCH just hoisted for the waters off C/N Jersey & all of Long Island including the Sound.

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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:20 pm

Take a look at that beautiful 16" bullseye right over my parents house in n central Ulster County.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:24 pm

HWO issued for most the area on land too, 1st step.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:26 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Take a look at that beautiful 16" bullseye right over my parents house in n central Ulster County.
I know where you are headed lol
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:34 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:STORM WATCH just hoisted for the waters off C/N Jersey & all of Long Island including the Sound.

imo those numbers are low especially for over the waters. If frank is right with his winds for nyc then the winds over water have to b higher. But they always err on side of caution and as u have stated winds on models can b overdone. We will see in next 24 hrs or so better idea.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:49 pm

18z GFS out to hour 48, no one else on here right now?
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:58 pm

Guess not, LP is tracking up through western NY, pops a LP off NJ coast, basically same winds 50-70mph gusts. but it looks diff than the other models.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

Post by amugs on Fri Jan 20, 2017 5:06 pm

Progression of GFS 850 winds











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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Jan 20, 2017 5:15 pm

I'm on Jman. It's Friday happy hour. Most people are out
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 20, 2017 5:17 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I'm on Jman. It's Friday happy hour. Most people are out
right, wish i wasnt in hospital praying for my mother in laws heart surgery. ill be here all night, 5 plus hrs of waiting. need keep busy somehow.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 20, 2017 5:18 pm

amugs wrote:Progression of GFS 850 winds











wild ride , LOOONG RIDE lots of damage, trees power ocean...I saw trucks out do trees today. GFS also may be a little weak on this run, interested to see SR models get into prime range. This really is just turning into a wind event with decent rain, which won't help as ground already saturated to weaken roots. i am just guessing but tri state will prolly see 6 figure outages if not more combined.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Jan 20, 2017 5:24 pm

I'm on Jman. It's Friday happy hour. Most people are out
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Jan 20, 2017 5:24 pm

Good luck buddy. Post a little thumbs up when she's out of the woods
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Jan 20, 2017 5:25 pm

Not good but it's just weather. Praying for your mother in law J man there's the stuff in life that really matters. Let your weather family know when you have an update on her.
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Re: January 22nd-24th Storm Update / Discussions

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