Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[Guest]

Frank, your winter outlook from back in November was pretty spot on.

1)Warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures and weak La Nina conditions will keep temperatures warm for the southern U.S, with the southeast ridge reaching as far north as NYC at times.

2)There will be a noticeable thaw late December or early January.

3)Godzilla storms (12"+ snowstorms) will be difficult to come by. More light to moderate events are expected.

4)An early Spring. As early as March.

[sroc4]

Check out this Pacific jet extension. Do not expect a +PNA anytime soon. Holy crap.

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=npac_250

Looks like the beginnings of the wave break at the end of the loop.

[Frank_Wx]

Frank, your winter outlook from back in November was pretty spot on.

1)Warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures and weak La Nina conditions will keep temperatures warm for the southern U.S, with the southeast ridge reaching as far north as NYC at times.

2)There will be a noticeable thaw late December or early January.

3)Godzilla storms (12"+ snowstorms) will be difficult to come by. More light to moderate events are expected.  

4)An early Spring. As early as March.

Thanks. There are aspects of the outlook that went right, but definitely some that did not. I believe I had normal to colder than normal conditions for the Met Winter, and we'll finish above normal. I think I had the right idea heading into the winter but did not organize my thought's exactly how I wanted to. I'll try and be a bit more consistent next year.

Check out this Pacific jet extension. Do not expect a +PNA anytime soon. Holy crap.

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=npac_250

Looks like the beginnings of the wave break at the end of the loop.  

Good catch

[Guest]

Don't be so hard on yourself. At the end of winter 15-16 you were saying this winter wasn't going to be pretty.

Also, Iso deserves credit for his outlook which called for warmer than normal with normal precip (above normal for me) and below average to average snowfall.

You guys are the ones that need to be on TV.

[Armando Salvadore]

Frank, your winter outlook from back in November was pretty spot on.

1)Warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures and weak La Nina conditions will keep temperatures warm for the southern U.S, with the southeast ridge reaching as far north as NYC at times.

2)There will be a noticeable thaw late December or early January.

3)Godzilla storms (12"+ snowstorms) will be difficult to come by. More light to moderate events are expected.  

4)An early Spring. As early as March.

Thanks. There are aspects of the outlook that went right, but definitely some that did not. I believe I had normal to colder than normal conditions for the Met Winter, and we'll finish above normal. I think I had the right idea heading into the winter but did not organize my thought's exactly how I wanted to. I'll try and be a bit more consistent next year.

Check out this Pacific jet extension. Do not expect a +PNA anytime soon. Holy crap.

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=npac_250

Looks like the beginnings of the wave break at the end of the loop.  

Good catch

hmmm... sounds familiar... "It appears we also see a jet retraction the week of the transpiring warm anomalies (19th-23rd), which in conjunction with the MJO propagation, makes sense. So a wave break seems apparent the last week of the month and we should see ridging impose back towards the western part of the Canadian Provinces and stretching towards Alaska". My response to Tom yesterday haha. This is also why i don't believe winter opportunities will be completely shut off. May have to watch end of the month into early March. Disappointing we could not cash in this week as with downstream blocking and two, ready to go, vortices in both of the jets, could not align and phase. It figures we see a jet extension the week off this potential when all seemed apparent last week like we were going to be in for something big. Oh well. Goes to show that the atmosphere never guarantees you a thing, despite what deemed as favorable.

[Guest]

This Thursday's threat which at one point looked to be a roudzilla for us has gone poof. Now watch the one on the 23rd verify but with no cold air. AS A MATTER OF FACT ITS PRETTY MUCH A GUARANTEE. OTI will be ready

[SoulSingMG]

This Thursday's threat which at one point looked to be a roudzilla for us has gone poof. Now watch the one on the 23rd verify but with no cold air. AS A MATTER OF FACT ITS PRETTY MUCH A GUARANTEE. OTI will be ready

Such a disappointment. I really thought this mid/late-week system had a ton of potential. And now, a 60°F weekend is on tap.

[RJB8525]

This Thursday's threat which at one point looked to be a roudzilla for us has gone poof. Now watch the one on the 23rd verify but with no cold air. AS A MATTER OF FACT ITS PRETTY MUCH A GUARANTEE. OTI will be ready

such the life of our winter this year..poof

Don't be so hard on yourself. At the end of winter 15-16 you were saying this winter wasn't going to be pretty.

Also, Iso deserves credit for his outlook which called for warmer than normal with normal precip (above normal for me) and below average to average snowfall.

You guys are the ones that need to be on TV.  

i remember a few members definitely saying they were worried about this coming Winter

[amugs]

We have had snow in a terrible pattern this winter and some locals are BN but not by 2011-12 standards in our area (IMBY 11" this year 25.5")- shore folks have had what winter used to be like overall. Past few winters have been an absolute abnormality down there.in snowfall, but is it hmmm??
We started off with snows in late November fro area members and have teh opportunity for some more as we head into early March. COld no, will rank in teh top 10 warmest winters, snowfall - still a few weeks to go and another SECS would bring many locals to near normal or for some just above. Looking at the the glass half filled here peeps.

Refer to this map by our own ISOTHERM for averages - this is a work of art peeps - da vinci would be proud!!

This is for this century

[Guest]

My average annual snowfall here on the NS of LI is about 30" which I have now surpassed for the 5th straight year!! 36" so far this season. 1996 is still the gold standard for me with 78" IMBY

[rb924119]

My average annual snowfall here on the NS of LI is about 30" which I have now surpassed for the 5th straight year!!  36" so far this season. 1996 is still the gold standard for me with 78" IMBY

As Frank likes to say: "Congrats, it's your winter." lmfao jk buddy. Hope you've enjoyed it thus far!

[Guest]

Precip is above normal but snowfall below so far. Nothing a roidzilla wouldn't fix though.

[RJB8525]

My average annual snowfall here on the NS of LI is about 30" which I have now surpassed for the 5th straight year!!  36" so far this season. 1996 is still the gold standard for me with 78" IMBY

Has anyone received more snow than you? I'm pulling for you, i picked you to win LOL

[Snow88]

It's a shame that thursday's snow will not pan out. It could have been a biggie. Next time period to watch is late February.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

My average annual snowfall here on the NS of LI is about 30" which I have now surpassed for the 5th straight year!!  36" so far this season. 1996 is still the gold standard for me with 78" IMBY

Has anyone received more snow than you? I'm pulling for you, i picked you to win LOL

45.0 here in the HV, Gods country.

[Radz]

It's a shame that thursday's snow will not pan out. It could have been a biggie. Next time period to watch is late February.

So close but yet...

[Math23x7]

The last time I saw the eastern US under the color that it is in below: December 2015

[jmanley32]

The last time I saw the eastern US under the color that it is in below: December 2015

ban him Frank LOL, nah this is legit and it stinks but what can we do.

[Dtone]

The last time I saw the eastern US under the color that it is in below: December 2015

ban him Frank LOL, nah this is legit and it stinks but what can we do.

I saw that too..rest of Feb looks dismal for snow, maybe a thread the needle event esp. N&W of NYC.
Still managed to get to near the normal total winter snowfall with some time to go. Not bad squeezing snow in between extended mild periods.

[Guest]

My average annual snowfall here on the NS of LI is about 30" which I have now surpassed for the 5th straight year!!  36" so far this season. 1996 is still the gold standard for me with 78" IMBY

Has anyone received more snow than you? I'm pulling for you, i picked you to win LOL

45.0 here in the HV, Gods country.

I agree on the God's country comment as I am a huge country boy. A redneck actually. No place better but......................someone better tell CP to stop measuring the snow in his yard with the metric system/. 45 cm is not more than 36"

[Frank_Wx]

*Whistles*

By the weekend...

GEFS:





EPS:

[Guest]

Family ski trip in the Poconos next week at Camelback . Looks like I might be skiing in shorts and using the outdoor spa?

[Guest]

The 500mb looks bad for the rest of the month, but 850 and 2m temps drop as we head into March. Didn't somebody mention that the end of Feb or early March still gave us another chance?

[RJB8525]

Family ski trip in the Poconos next week at Camelback .   Looks like I might be skiing in shorts and using the outdoor spa?  

made me laugh but its sad at the same time..because it's true

[Armando Salvadore]

Jet retraction -> Wave break -> MJO propagation into west pacific (?)-> -NPO = watching for an east coast storm threat around the 28th-3/5. While cold air will be an issue, it was brought to my attention about march of 1999 and 1984 both winters were rather lackluster, however come march, two formidable snow events. Most likely heavy wet snow too because now you're dealing with changing wavelengths, seasonal jet, sun angle, etc,. Think i'm liking that period.

[nutleyblizzard]

Jet retraction -> Wave break -> MJO propagation into west pacific (?)->  -NPO = watching for an east coast storm threat around the 28th-3/5. While cold air will be an issue, it was brought to my attention about march of 1999 and 1984 both winters were rather lackluster, however come march, two formidable snow events. Most likely heavy wet snow too because now you're dealing with changing wavelengths, seasonal jet, sun angle, etc,. Think i'm liking that period.

Ah yes March 5th. The anniversary of the infamous bust of 2001. Perhaps mother nature can return the favor by recreating the storm and directly hit us this time with a Frankzilla.

[Isotherm]

Armando, I have researched those years and both featured major strat warming events at the end of Feb. I continue to think we will see another period of favorability insofar as high latitude blocking. The first zonal reversal did induce NAM reversal the first half of Feb. Not expecting a severe pattern, but sufficient for another snow event down the road.

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