Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[amugs]

Northern lights ring - jesus teh entire High latitude region of earth - MADONNE!

[jake732]

If anyone gives a flying hoot, cmc shows a even next weekend ❄️

[Guest]

CMC is the JB of weather models. It shows snow most every other day every run

[track17]

Jake should probably post in banter but there is not chance for us at the jersey shore. Just look at the temps on weather.com or noaa

[jmanley32]

The CMC does not show an event for us, a storm is offshore. Everything else is warm.

[sroc4]

The CMC does not show an event for us,  a storm is offshore.  Everything else is warm.

CMC is not as aweful a model as one might think during winter months. Jman this is a snow event on the CMC for most verbatim and not that far off from coming further N if there is a touch more phasing. For now its one run. The only thing certain in life if death. Everything else is subject to change.

[Math23x7]

Someone on another forum posted this:

"Too much focus on the MJO. The driving factor this winter has been the QBO, which was incredibly bad for January. To me, this means the strong westerlies continue which means the PV remains locked up north and we do not get the blocking to produce prolonged cold and multiple snow chances. Just more of the same. Marginal cold with transient arctic shots and thread the needle events, which overall have not panned out for most."

He then went on to say:

"Another thing is the teleconnections. People are talking about how great they look. And most do. Except one very important one in this case. The EPO. In 13-14 I believe it was we overcame a strongly positive QBO with an historically negative EPO. The EPO is going positive."

[Snow88]

[track17]

No chance just go on weather.com and look at the temps. Maybe the other place will get cold but no chance at the jersey shore

[Quietace]

No chance just go on weather.com and look at the temps. Maybe the other place will get cold but no chance at the jersey shore

Do you know know where those temps on weather.com come from? As in where they are generated from?

[track17]

Don't know but have been pretty spot on as of late

[sroc4]

Someone on another forum posted this:

"Too much focus on the MJO. The driving factor this winter has been the QBO, which was incredibly bad for January. To me, this means the strong westerlies continue which means the PV remains locked up north and we do not get the blocking to produce prolonged cold and multiple snow chances. Just more of the same. Marginal cold with transient arctic shots and thread the needle events, which overall have not panned out for most."

He then went on to say:

"Another thing is the teleconnections. People are talking about how great they look. And most do. Except one very important one in this case. The EPO. In 13-14 I believe it was we overcame a strongly positive QBO with an historically negative EPO. The EPO is going positive."

Overall one cannot deny the strong +QBO effects.  The truth is however, our understanding of the QBO, how it behaves, and its true effects on the strat and tropospheric weather is fragmented at best. We do know that there are relationships between the phase and strength of phase of the QBO and the likelihood of higher latitude blocking to develop, but its likely this relationship is intertwined with how the QBO ultimately affects the stratospheric circulations; whether it be a direct relationship or indirect by countering or deflecting other forces that would otherwise act to change the stratospheric circulation for better or worse.   ie: we know that heat flux/EPV and resultant  wave 1 and 2 attacks that are initiated in the troposphere can rise up from the troposphere into the stratosphere and lead to changes in temperature and intensity of the sPV.  And if the strat vortex is displaced perturbed or split there are typically profound effects that result in the troposphere.  

I found year 66-67 and 67-68 to focus on.  66-67 was a negative la nada ENSO year and 67-68 was a weak La Nina.  66-67 CPK finished with 51.5" of snow, well above normal and had a strong+ QBO, whereas, 67-68 finished with 19.5" of snow, below normal snowfall with a mod neg QBO.  

                   66-67           67-68            
snowfall        51.5"AN       19.5"BN            
QBO               strong+      mod-strong -        
EPO                 pos                neg                
NAO            neg-neutral        neg                  
PDO                 neg               neg                  

The two factors that we do not have historical data for, or at least I cannot find is the MJO and the state of the strat. So like the highlighted portion of the above quote simply states we always have to look at the combined effects and which one teleconnection or combination of tends to drive the pattern.  

In general La Nina years are warm in the east with these ridge flexing at times and storm tracks that are N or west.  Here are maps compliments of Joe Daleo re the general tendencies for La Nina years:

La Ninas are typically fickle with cold and warm spells


They feature active northern storm tracks that reinforce the snows north but bring more often rains south. You can add a track across the lakes into southeast Canada.


CPC researchers showed the QBO modulated ENSO patterns and with a strong westerly QBO, the La Nina pattern would suggest a western Canada negative height anomaly in the mean which is exactly what we have seen this year thus far.




Here is the main point of this write up.  I call bullshit on the QBO being the driver.  The state of the ENSO, La Nina forcings coming out of the tropical Pac has been driving the big picture, with the QBO enhancing the La Nina forcings.  As seen above you can have a weak La Nina and a strong +QBO and still end with above normal snowfall.  If the QBO was weaker some of the other indices we have been looking at may have more influence at changing that underlying pattern more consistently or for longer periods than we have seen.  IF Iam correct about the main underlying influence to the big picture has been coming out of the tropics, then the MJO pulse, IF real out strongly into phase 8 WILL ABSOLUTELY lead to changes that we do not currently see on the modeling.  As has been stated all season; however, it would have to be a bigger driver such as a true SSWE to change the fundamental La Nina influence to sustain a more prolonged period of change.   With the strat forecasted to undergo changes for the better as alluded to by Isotherm combined with strong pulses into favorable MJO phases we will absolutely see at least 1 maybe two significant EC storms before all is said and done.  This last statement however is contingent upon the MJO forecast verifying.  With this currently modest MJO pulse in phase 5, which is typical of and enhancing to the La Nina pattern above, models are stuck, so LR projections look horrible.  Combine with models historically having a difficult time incorporating the effects a change to the stratPV might have beyond 7days, I would not expect the models to catch on until we see the MJO get into phase 7.  Again this is all contingent on this forecast verifying.  We shall see.  Throw in your towel if you want, but seeing is that its still Feb 4th not 24th I am going to wait and see what we look like in about 6-7days when the MJO should be entering into phase 7.  That puts us at Feb10-11 a solid 2-4week period to make or break.

[frank 638]

Srock thanks for the post u made u are right it is still early Feb things can change for the better who knows maybe we can get a great snowstorm who knows .

[Quietace]

Don't know but have been pretty spot on as of late

Straight from the GFS verbatim. As does all your weather apps. So to summarize, do not use them.

[Guest]

Great write up Scott. So am I right by saying that ElNino like last winter is warm for the east and so is La Niña. If that's true we should never have cold. What am I missing?

[Armando Salvadore]

Someone on another forum posted this:

"Too much focus on the MJO. The driving factor this winter has been the QBO, which was incredibly bad for January. To me, this means the strong westerlies continue which means the PV remains locked up north and we do not get the blocking to produce prolonged cold and multiple snow chances. Just more of the same. Marginal cold with transient arctic shots and thread the needle events, which overall have not panned out for most."

He then went on to say:

"Another thing is the teleconnections. People are talking about how great they look. And most do. Except one very important one in this case. The EPO. In 13-14 I believe it was we overcame a strongly positive QBO with an historically negative EPO. The EPO is going positive."

Overall one cannot deny the strong +QBO effects.  The truth is however, our understanding of the QBO, how it behaves, and its true effects on the strat and tropospheric weather is fragmented at best. We do know that there are relationships between the phase and strength of phase of the QBO and the likelihood of higher latitude blocking to develop, but its likely this relationship is intertwined with how the QBO ultimately affects the stratospheric circulations; whether it be a direct relationship or indirect by countering or deflecting other forces that would otherwise act to change the stratospheric circulation for better or worse.   ie: we know that heat flux/EPV and resultant  wave 1 and 2 attacks that are initiated in the troposphere can rise up from the troposphere into the stratosphere and lead to changes in temperature and intensity of the sPV.  And if the strat vortex is displaced perturbed or split there are typically profound effects that result in the troposphere.  

I found year 66-67 and 67-68 to focus on.  66-67 was a negative la nada ENSO year and 67-68 was a weak La Nina.  66-67 CPK finished with 51.5" of snow, well above normal and had a strong+ QBO, whereas, 67-68 finished with 19.5" of snow, below normal snowfall with a mod neg QBO.  

                   66-67           67-68            
snowfall        51.5"AN       19.5"BN            
QBO               strong+      mod-strong -        
EPO                 pos                neg                
NAO            neg-neutral        neg                  
PDO                 neg               neg                  

The two factors that we do not have historical data for, or at least I cannot find is the MJO and the state of the strat. So like the highlighted portion of the above quote simply states we always have to look at the combined effects and which one teleconnection or combination of tends to drive the pattern.  

In general La Nina years are warm in the east with these ridge flexing at times and storm tracks that are N or west.  Here are maps compliments of Joe Daleo re the general tendencies for La Nina years:

La Ninas are typically fickle with cold and warm spells


They feature active northern storm tracks that reinforce the snows north but bring more often rains south. You can add a track across the lakes into southeast Canada.


CPC researchers showed the QBO modulated ENSO patterns and with a strong westerly QBO, the La Nina pattern would suggest a western Canada negative height anomaly in the mean which is exactly what we have seen this year thus far.




Here is the main point of this write up.  I call bullshit on the QBO being the driver.  The state of the ENSO, La Nina forcings coming out of the tropical Pac has been driving the big picture, with the QBO enhancing the La Nina forcings.  As seen above you can have a weak La Nina and a strong +QBO and still end with above normal snowfall.  If the QBO was weaker some of the other indices we have been looking at may have more influence at changing that underlying pattern more consistently or for longer periods than we have seen.  IF Iam correct about the main underlying influence to the big picture has been coming out of the tropics, then the MJO pulse, IF real out strongly into phase 8 WILL ABSOLUTELY lead to changes that we do not currently see on the modeling.  As has been stated all season; however, it would have to be a bigger driver such as a true SSWE to change the fundamental La Nina influence to sustain a more prolonged period of change.   With the strat forecasted to undergo changes for the better as alluded to by Isotherm combined with strong pulses into favorable MJO phases we will absolutely see at least 1 maybe two significant EC storms before all is said and done.  This last statement however is contingent upon the MJO forecast verifying.  With this currently modest MJO pulse in phase 5, which is typical of and enhancing to the La Nina pattern above, models are stuck, so LR projections look horrible.  Combine with models historically having a difficult time incorporating the effects a change to the stratPV might have beyond 7days, I would not expect the models to catch on until we see the MJO get into phase 7.  Again this is all contingent on this forecast verifying.  We shall see.  Throw in your towel if you want, but seeing is that its still Feb 4th not 24th I am going to wait and see what we look like in about 6-7days when the MJO should be entering into phase 7.  That puts us at Feb10-11 a solid 2-4week period to make or break.

Fantastic analysis and research Scott! As Steve D taught me, the QBO is an enhancer, and not necessarily a driver. Back in my winter outlook i did in Nov, i noticed that the speculative evidence that draws the statement of "anything over + 10m/s U-wind (aka ++QBO)" ruins winters. Not necessarily, i found other analogs as well with --QBO or ++QBO and still found AN snowfall. So, there are other variables at play here and one of the main drivers is definitely the state of ENSO and ocean cycles. Regarding your statement about the MJO, right on! Indicated by the VP at 200mb, this is one coherent legitimate MJO wave. I was a bit conflicted reading about seeing a TPV lobe end up in the Bering Sea/ALuetian domain, however, if a canonical WQBO/-ENSO argues that a ridge takes place there, than we flood the country (more like the midwest and EC) with pacific air while the trough dumps in the west. However, can't the same be said if you replace it with a dateline trough and you get a reversal of the rossby wave configuration over NA? Well, i'm pretty sure the answer is yes, but we've seen that the jet extensions and +EPO leads to a failing meridional pattern. We shall see where this goes, but i stick with us not leaving this winter without at least seeing one snow event and i've been firm with it on FB.

[track17]

Well all I know is the weather apps have been spot on all winter. At least for the jersey shore.

[sroc4]

Great write up Scott. So am I right by saying that ElNino like last winter is warm for the east and so is La Niña. If that's true we should never have cold. What am I missing?

Jim a super El Nino like last year is a case of too much of a good thing. The energy associated with the STJ last year was so juiced up it was pumping up the SE Atlantic ridging out ahead leading to a STJ that wanted to be west of the region rather than just off the coast. The Pac Jet was also extra amped up leading to a strange pattern for El Nino in that instead of the SW CONUS getting wet it was the NW CONUS. This also aided in flooding the country with Pac air and helped keep any cold air locked to the N throughout the majority of the winter. Combine that with an extremely anomalous stratospheric circulation that wouldn't budge until early march the cold air simply couldn't come down. We did however get the blizzard after a weak strat warming event in early to mid Jan that disturbed the vortex temporarily, and again the record mid-late Feb cold spell where it reached -1 I believe after an early Feb strat warming event. But again the strat very quickly in both instances tightened back up.

[Snow88]

Maybe some hope by mid month?

PNA looks good on the GFS by mid month

AO looks good by mid month

[rb924119]

Scott, what a post!! The EURO Ensemble has a decent clustering of lows around day 11 near the Delmarva, but I'm very hesitant to buy into anything at this point. I just don't honestly really like the projections, even with the MJO pulse, which is why I've thrown my towel. We will certainly see, though, as you said, the long range gurus here are pretty optimistic, so there's a good chance I'll eat my words lmao

[Math23x7]

I have mentioned this numerous times before, but during the 2011-12 winter, it was on February 11th that, on the old WABC board, Frank officially threw in the towel on winter. I wonder if Frank will wave the white flag in the near future given how terrible the pattern looks going forward.

[sroc4]

The CMC does not show an event for us,  a storm is offshore.  Everything else is warm.

CMC is not as aweful a model as one might think during winter months.  Jman this is a snow event on the CMC for most verbatim and not that far off from coming further N if there is a touch more phasing.  For now its one run.  The only thing certain in life if death.  Everything else is subject to change.  

When I posted this on the 3rd it was one model and one run.  CMC lost it, but here are two other models and two other runs.  Don't sound the bells just yet.  That said this isn't LR either.  

Jus sayin...we track!  

[Radz]

The CMC does not show an event for us,  a storm is offshore.  Everything else is warm.

CMC is not as aweful a model as one might think during winter months.  Jman this is a snow event on the CMC for most verbatim and not that far off from coming further N if there is a touch more phasing.  For now its one run.  The only thing certain in life if death.  Everything else is subject to change.  

When I posted this on the 3rd it was one model and one run.  CMC lost it, but here are two other models and two other runs.  Don't sound the bells just yet.  That said this isn't LR either.  

Jus sayin...we track!  

A glimmer of hope popping up in the shorter range... would be nice to offset Wednesday's predicted torch

[devsman]

12z runs better have this storm

[jake732]

I know it's early but what type of storm is this? And what's the ceiling ? Does it have enough energy and strength to be a strong storm?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

As the saying goes it's always darkest before the dawn. Here's to a glimmer of hope that yesterday was was that time and today is the dawn.

13 straight days of a solid snow cover here so I shouldn't be complaining but already foreseeing losing it by Wednesday a Thursday snowfall would be a Gods send.

[Guest]

This storm threat for Thursday does not make sense meteorologically IMO. The cutter on Tuesday into Wednesday will be followed by strong NW winds gusting into Thursday at over 40mph. HOW THEN CAN A STORM RIDE UP THE COAST WHEN EVERYTHING IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS FIGHTING AGAINST ITS MOVEMENT AND PUSHING IT OTS? doesn't jive for me. Zero confidence in this one for me. I know we are all frustrated and hoping but let's be realistic.

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