Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[skinsfan1177]

Euro was a complete miss for thurs. Is the threat dead now?

Imo it's dead for NYC south at least

[Radz]

Euro was a complete miss for thurs. Is the threat dead now?

Imo it's dead for NYC south at least

18Z GFS was much closer compared to last few days runs but a little too late for much more improvement i'm guessing

[Frank_Wx]

The GEFS say this is nowhere near dead

[amugs]

Joe Cioffi just tweeted Thurs. storm off the table now hahahaha!!

[jmanley32]

The GEFS say this is nowhere near dead

Wow thats nothing like the operational, that looks almost perfect. Its def not being talked about though, since its apparent the models want to either eject the northern piece to far ahead or the southern piece held back, it is like a race and seems very "thread the needle" as you would say frank.

[jmanley32]

Oh BTW, sorry OT but my mother in law has been home for a week now and has been doing okay but fell yesterday and hurt herself a little, we feel she and her husband need to go into a retirement community where they have on site help and medical but they both do not want to give up their independence which in one sense is understandable but in their best interest to stay alive no.

[Guest]

I'm a little confused here. Which Thursday storm is being discussed? I'm seeing a lot of maps for the 16th, but Frank's map is for the 23rd.

[Snow88]

The GEFS say this is nowhere near dead

Wow thats nothing like the operational, that looks almost perfect.  Its def not being talked about though, since its apparent the models want to either eject the northern piece to far ahead or the southern piece held back, it is like a race and seems very "thread the needle" as you would say frank.

That's not Thursday's storm

[jmanley32]

The GEFS say this is nowhere near dead

Wow thats nothing like the operational, that looks almost perfect.  Its def not being talked about though, since its apparent the models want to either eject the northern piece to far ahead or the southern piece held back, it is like a race and seems very "thread the needle" as you would say frank.

That's not Thursday's storm

No your 100% it is not, thats the 23rd, mega bomb the GFS has been showing, weather its a snowicane rain and high winds or nothing remains to be seen. 10 days out so long way to go. THIS Thursday I guess is pretty much gone for us, damn another one bites the dust!

[Snow88]

Still a miss on the GFS

I think it's time to stick a fork into this thursdays storm. What a shame.

[jmanley32]

Still a miss on the GFS

I think it's time to stick a fork into this thursdays storm. What a shame.

yep next to watch is the following thursday, what is it with thursdays? LOL

[Snow88]

Although, precip was slightly further north and west on the GFS run compared to 18z

[Snow88]

Still a miss on the GFS

I think it's time to stick a fork into this thursdays storm. What a shame.

yep next to watch is the following thursday, what is it with thursdays? LOL

Remember how storms use to only happen on the weekends? lol

[Snow88]

CMC is a miss. Hit's Maine pretty hard.

Goodnight

[Isotherm]

My thoughts on the remainder of the winter are as follows:

 

The physical mechanisms broached in foregoing conversations are still valid insofar as the forthcoming tropospheric pattern, but I feel differently regarding the timing for reasons which will be elucidated here. The negative NAM / NAO period over the past ten days is not related to the current MJO forcing - rather, it is a direct response to the rapid downwelling induced via the stratospheric warming / w=1 event at the beginning of the month. I am also convinced that the reconsolidation of the vortex from near 0 m/s zonal winds to slightly weaker than average is an insufficient factor contributing to the modelled medium range blowtorch. The coherent propagation of the u signal through P-7 is a very warm signal when accounting for background conditions, and so, this is likely the first time - in my opinion - that the MJO forcing is superseding other variables such as the depressed vortex state. The amplified MJO propagation is both deleterious and beneficial, therefore. The progged torch centered on February 20th +/- 3 days makes sense due to the attendant lag time w/ the extratropical circulation. As a result, there will be a break in the favorability, but I strongly believe that we have not seen our last winter event of the season. I never expected this winter to be an overall "wintry" one with persistent snowpack and frequent opportunities, so the potential for late winter always concerned setting up a more propitious pattern for another snowfall. There is a +MT and concomitant jet extension with Nino-esque GWO/AAM forcing over the next several days. Initially, I thought that w2 generation would be enhanced due to the tropospheric precursors, and it has, but not sufficiently so to impact the upper stratosphere. The models are now detecting the amplified w1 generation associated with the propagating MJO wave and precursor pattern. With the vortex already in a weakened state, and guaranteed robust MJO forcing w/ induction of planetary waves, I would anticipate another stratospheric attack circa Feb 20-25. This coincides well with the time-lag of the MJO. A second zonal wind reversal is possible, but not definitive. Even if there isn't a zonal wind reversal, I think we will see a gradually improving tropospheric pattern once again by the last week of February - especially after the 24th-25th. I'm not particularly crazy about the 22nd-23rd period for a storm because we're in between periods of favorability. I think the next time frame to monitor for a threat would be toward the last few days of February or early March. Whether that's the final opportunity is indeterminate. To me, this was a 20-26" winter for Central Park, so we've already reached my expectations snowfall wise, and there's room for another event. It's possible, if factors progress as I expect, that Central Park finishes close to normal in terms of snowfall. It's possible they don't. Based upon the above, it is my opinion that winter in the sense of snowfall chances is not "over" yet. There will be a warm break, epitomizing the pattern of this winter overall.

Love these long rangers Tom. Did some analysis this morning and posted in my Facebook group and very similarly mentioned the exact entities. Great job as always. It appears we also see a jet retraction the week of the transpiring warm anomalies (19th-23rd), which in conjunction with the MJO propagation, makes sense. So a wave break seems apparent the last week of the month and we should see ridging impose back towards the western part of the Canadian Provinces and stretching towards Alaska (AKA -EPO). It's also why i remain skeptical of implementing a full blown early spring call anyway, because i also feel we've not seen the last of winter opportunities, especially if the MJO continues into the Eastern Hemisphere (phase 2/3) and its subsequent lagging effects. Regarding next week, right now, i'm leaning more to a miss given the overall state of things, however, in no way am i writing it off. Even with a full phase, we can still see something occur over the northeast even with some degree of interaction from the southern max. It's a shame too given this really could've been a very significant event timing could align itself, however, it's really the cyclical pattern we've been in since November and the recurring Rossby wave train. Another thing to note is, the 200 CHI appears to have also shifted away from the MC, indicating an alteration to the walker cell.

Thanks Armando, and great post to you as well. Good to see we're in agreement. Typically it would be foolhardy for one to forecast an early / rapid onset to protracted spring weather in light of the signals emanating from the stratosphere and TF progression. Blocking in the AO/NAO domains has been obstinate this season, but it will be interesting to see if we can induce a period late Feb-early Mar subsequent to MJO lagged forcing and concomitant stratospheric disruption.

Thanks guys for the kind words.

[Isotherm]

I'm confused a little. Weren't you and others very confident and optimistic for below avg temps and very wintry conditions from mid February through the end of the month early March or am I missing something. What has changed in the past week to change your thinking?

I can't necessarily speak for others, but this is why I am/was very careful with the phraseology of my posts. I never said that I believed a very wintry and/or colder than normal temperature regime was in the offing; my focus has always been on the MJO/strat induced development of a possible blocking/-AO/-NAO regime for the first time this season. I did and still do think these factors will operate congruously to provide another or more than one opportunity for snowfall in late Feb into March. Later this week actually would have been an excellent chance for a major snowfall if the ridge/trough orientation improved slightly, but the time for such changes is running out. And we saw a significant snowfall this past week in response to the stratospheric displacement induced transient favorability. So I would say that many more chances have been popping up versus the past two months of winter for sure.

[Frank_Wx]

Check out this Pacific jet extension. Do not expect a +PNA anytime soon. Holy crap.

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=npac_250

[Quietace]

Check out this Pacific jet extension. Do not expect a +PNA anytime soon. Holy crap.

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=npac_250

California's drought is turning into there worst nightmare.

[Radz]

Very disappointing not to capitalize on a descent pattern this week, just not in the cards this time around- now next weeks threat seems to be lessening, hope things turn around for the end of Feb/early March - fingers crossed

[amugs]

Check out this Pacific jet extension. Do not expect a +PNA anytime soon. Holy crap.

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=npac_250

WOW that is crazy - it is on roids.

Is this from the difference is SST and the MT alignment that has been discussed over teh PAC? That cold pool that now has -PDO along with the warmer pool just below it.

Super Long Range is all indicators are showing an El Nino ready to come back. This would blow SCRIPPS forecast of a strong NINA from the summer and again the fall.

Thursday storm is basically done peeps - we are not taking advantage of a very good set up teles wise (-AO,-NAO, +PNA MJO Phase - not getting the phase that the EURO showed last week that would have been a bomb for us. BUT we had a SECS in a phase 6 of MJO warm pattern which I guess is the give and take this winter.

[Frank_Wx]

Check out this Pacific jet extension. Do not expect a +PNA anytime soon. Holy crap.

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=npac_250

WOW that is crazy - it is on roids.

Is this from the difference is SST and the MT alignment that has been discussed over teh PAC? That cold pool that now has  -PDO along with the warmer pool just below it.

Super Long Range is all indicators are showing an El Nino ready to come back. This would blow SCRIPPS forecast of a strong NINA from the summer and again the fall.

Thursday storm is basically done peeps - we are not taking advantage of a very good set up teles wise (-AO,-NAO, +PNA MJO Phase - not getting the phase that the EURO showed last week that would have been a bomb for us. BUT we had a SECS in a phase 6 of MJO warm pattern which I guess is the give and take this winter.

Mugs, I honestly think the raging PAC jet this year is a result of the difference of SSTA's (going from strong El Nino to La Nina probably did not help) and a very positive QBO.

As Radz said, I think it's very disheartening that we had great teleconnections and a favorable MJO but it looks like there will not be a phase with Thursday's storm. Maybe we see dramatic trends in today's guidance.

[Guest]

Is there any good news regarding the 23rd-25th? The NWS is predicting a much less favorable setup with a +AO, +NAO and no help from the PNA.

[Frank_Wx]

Is there any good news regarding the 23rd-25th? The NWS is predicting a much less favorable setup with a +AO, +NAO and no help from the PNA.

Big storm signal, but at quick glance, we seem devoid of cold air. Maybe you'll have better luck being far north.

[Guest]

Both the GEPS and GEFS long range ensembles are showing troughing out west and mild ridging in the east for that time frame. I suspect I'll join you guys in the rain.

[Frank_Wx]

Winter could be over.

Pitchers and catchers starts today!!!!!!!

[Guest]

Frank, your winter outlook from back in November was pretty spot on.

1)Warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures and weak La Nina conditions will keep temperatures warm for the southern U.S, with the southeast ridge reaching as far north as NYC at times.

2)There will be a noticeable thaw late December or early January.

3)Godzilla storms (12"+ snowstorms) will be difficult to come by. More light to moderate events are expected.

4)An early Spring. As early as March.

[sroc4]

Check out this Pacific jet extension. Do not expect a +PNA anytime soon. Holy crap.

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=npac_250

Looks like the beginnings of the wave break at the end of the loop.

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