Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[Snow88]

0z runs were in the right direction

Lets see the 12z runs

[Snow88]

12z GFS is coming in with better blocking

[rb924119]

And what a surprise (not) the GFS continues to correct itself towards what should happen based on its progged teleconnections. Result? Well, let the hype begin, is all I shall say aha

[rb924119]

However, this would likely NOT be a large event; probably a Mothrazilla at best. The flow is much too zonal with a limited moisture supply, so keep that in mind.

[amugs]

Ray that is rhe Greatest Father's Day movie of all time IMHO.
As Isotherm pointed out, there is interference in the models depiction of this massive percolating jetstream.

As Ray pointed out that we have seen this so many times with the model shuffle, has a storm losses it only to bring it back within 72 hrs and it makes jumps or strides to the original idea. May not be exact but the idea is there. The players are on the field here for us, will it be a full or partial  NE corridor storm? We just need the west coast to help us out and get some heights to rise. I feel with this set up we will see tjis happen, how much remains to be seen.
If we can hook the NAO over the top to the PAC then watch out. 
There will be laughable if not 180 degree difrences in the model runs. Tom pointed this out two days ago it takes time for our supercomputers to digest and play out the variables.

[Snow88]

Great run for NYC north

[Snow88]

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/cmc/current/12z/CMC_MSLPThickQPF_na_f177.png?1364096147

[rb924119]

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/cmc/current/12z/CMC_MSLPThickQPF_na_f177.png?1364096147

Check the evolution of the pattern BEHIND this one on the CMC......now THAT could raise eyebrows

[Snow88]

PNA, NAO and AO look better today

[Armando Salvadore]

Crazy similar look to what the 12z guidance has for next weekend.... March 1999 analog leading up to the snow event that occurred. 2 things; Lack of pacific amplification in this analog AND notice how robust the blocking ridge is. Relying on the baroclinic zone will be a component to this situation next weekend. I really am liking our odds.

[Math23x7]

Crazy similar look to what the 12z guidance has for next weekend.... March 1999 analog leading up to the snow event that occurred. 2 things; Lack of pacific amplification in this analog AND notice how robust the blocking ridge is. Relying on the baroclinic zone will be a component to this situation next weekend. I really am liking our odds.

I remember that event. It gave us several inches of snow. I was eight years old and had off from school that day. Me and my sister built a nice snowman for the day off. Soon after this, however, it warmed up quickly. Of course, because of the compact snowman we built (and because it was in the shade), it stood a bit later. Five days after the snow much of the snow had melted. However, the snowman (albeit no longer resembling one, rather a several inch tall snowbank), was still intact.

[amugs]

Gfs and GEFS honking at thin period Isotherm and Arondo are talking about. Wave break, low AAM, trop forcing MJO wave, TPV setting up in SE Canada and a feedback retrogression from the Greenland block to help set up a Rec block over the top bridging the pac to the GREENLAND Block. We have cold.cold air in Canada that will aid in our snow chances, storms can tap that.
Looking at this weekend to the with for what could be multiple chances. Nothing etched in stone of course but the potential from what I am seeing at h5 is there.

[Snow88]

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/gfs/current/00z/GFS_MSLPThickQPF_na_f105.png?1364096147

1st wave is way further south

[Snow88]

Incoming on the GFS

[Snow88]

NYC is crushed this upcoming weekend on the GFS

Overrunning followed by a coastal

[Snow88]

GFS is 12+ for a lot of the area

[jmanley32]

So whats the status on thi storm potential, looks like Sunday? Is the crazy Euro run still possible? I cannot even imagine the wind maps on the run scott posted, that was sooooo sexy OMG. I will be on again after a haiatus for a bit LOL

[jmanley32]

GFS is 12+ for a lot of the area

GFS is more like 14-20.

[Snow88]

Wow GFS has 4 snow threats

CMC

[Snow88]

Earthlight

We are bordering on KU-level hemispheric evolution now on much of the medium range ensemble guidance as we move into the Day 5-10 period. Westward movement of vorticity from Greenland into the Davis Straight and Central Canada with a closed and/or notable polar block circulation have been known to preclude some of the more prolific Northeast US snowstorms on record. In addition, the elongation of the tropospheric polar vortex over Southeast Canada suggests that cold, well sourced high pressure systems will be meandering to our north over Northern New England and Southeastern Canada. An active Pacific pattern ensures multiple disturbances ejecting eastwards into this airmass.


While the individual details are yet to be determined, and we don't have a handle on individual pieces of energy, I can say with confidence that at the current juncture this is the best looking pre-loading pattern over the higher latitudes I have seen in quite some time.

[SoulSingMG]

00z EURO: Game ON.

[algae888]

We basically have three systems to watch in the next 4 to 10 day period. One on Friday one on Sunday and one the following Tuesday. Models have been all over the place with these systems but one thing models keep spitting out are a foot plus of snow somewhere from Virginia Coast through New England. My guess at this point is that most of the East will see at least one decent snowfall with the jackpot Zone somewhere between those areas I mentioned above of a foot or more. Definitely interesting times ahead as we are in a period That we have not seen this whole winter.

[jake732]

Y is this place so frikin dead???? We have a couple storms to track!!! It ain't July u know.

[sroc4]

Def going to be lots of potential to talk about.  Here are some of the main differences in the upper levels between 500mb on the Euro(furthest S soln), the GFS(in between), and the CMC(furthest N soln), for the first system for Friday.  There is still much to be worked out regarding timing and positioning etc.   Some common features on the surface maps is strong LP just poking into the picture in the top right corner of all three surface maps.  This could act as a 50/50 LP and slow things down.  The other thing common on all surface maps is strong HP over top of our system. If the system slows at all enhancement via a strong baroclinic zone could be significant.  It all depends on where the frontal boundary sets up.  My ears are perked as this is now under 5 days.  Just keep in mind the euro nailed the clipper that wasn't this past Friday keeping everything to the south, but the CMC agreed with it then.  This time the CMC, at least last nights 00z, is much closer to the GFS in its timing and upper level features, so we shall see.   NOTE: I used the 540 line on the 500mb maps as an arbitrary thickness to show the differences in the heights along the EC ahead of the main mid level energy.  

[sroc4]

Y is this place so frikin dead???? We have a couple storms to track!!! It ain't July u know.

Many people have thrown in their proverbial white towels Jake.  And with the LR too often showing the goods only to fall flat I think many are hesitant.  However, rest assured if in another 24-48 hrs if the euro starts to comes back to the GFS/CMC with the first system regarding the board you will be saying................

[dkodgis]

The last line in my signature says it all

[docstox12]

Y is this place so frikin dead???? We have a couple storms to track!!! It ain't July u know.

Many people have thrown in their proverbial white towels Jake.  And with the LR too often showing the goods only to fall flat I think many are hesitant.  However, rest assured if in another 24-48 hrs if the euro starts to comes back to the GFS/CMC with the first system regarding the board you will be saying................

OMG Doc I'm screaming laughing with tears!! Grand slam home run!!!!

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