Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

[Guest]

Yikes!!! I've been Rick-Snowed!!!

Also, I wonder how often north-central/western Canada has Feb temps in the mid to upper 30s.

[RJB8525]

oh man that's cruel ace LOL

[sroc4]

Is there anything in fantasy storm range?

Yes
See below:

Brilliant!

[Guest]

I think this is the most joy I've seen on the board in a while.

[Isotherm]

This winter has paralleled what I expected, and 2011-12 was in my analog grouping with 73-74 the lead analog. However, factors tend to shift as one approaches the end of meteorological winter and that is the window I have been targeting (feb 15 onward) for the first genuine blocking regime of the season. Certain variables are much different now vs the past two month. Ozone transport has been very good which is aiding the warming pole and will keep the vortex weak. Many other reasons I have noted in the LR thread. Bottom line, I have been negative the entire winter, and now that most seem to be closing the blinds, I see better signals than I have all season.

[amugs]

This winter has paralleled what I expected, and 2011-12 was in my analog grouping with 73-74 the lead analog. However, factors tend to shift as one approaches the end of meteorological winter and that is the window I have been targeting (feb 15 onward) for the first genuine blocking regime of the season. Certain variables are much different now vs the past two month. Ozone transport has been very good which is aiding the warming pole and will keep the vortex weak. Many other reasons I have noted in the LR thread. Bottom line, I have been negative the entire winter, and now that most seem to be closing the blinds, I see better signals than I have all season.

You are with a minority of folks at this stage of the game Tom and I applaud you for it- JB & Tom perfect together. I hope it happens. 11-12 was abysmal.

Thoughts on next three winters - solar min, increased volcanic activity, base state cooler?? LOL???

[sroc4]

This winter has paralleled what I expected, and 2011-12 was in my analog grouping with 73-74 the lead analog. However, factors tend to shift as one approaches the end of meteorological winter and that is the window I have been targeting (feb 15 onward) for the first genuine blocking regime of the season. Certain variables are much different now vs the past two month. Ozone transport has been very good which is aiding the warming pole and will keep the vortex weak. Many other reasons I have noted in the LR thread. Bottom line, I have been negative the entire winter, and now that most seem to be closing the blinds, I see better signals than I have all season.

Tom as I mentioned in the other thread you have been one of the most consistent, accurate, and most importantly objective in your analysis throughout this winter. I dont normally like to blow smoke up anyones arse, but I applaud you.

[amugs]

I think people throw statements out there to obfuscate and simply play contrarian a bit.

Really?/ Christ I had to look this up - you sure your not a Rhodes Scholar or writer for the Meteorological Science Journal??

ob·fus·cate
ˈäbfəˌskāt/Submit
verb
past tense: obfuscated; past participle: obfuscated
render obscure, unclear, or unintelligible.
"the spelling changes will deform some familiar words and obfuscate their etymological origins"
synonyms: obscure, confuse, make unclear, blur, muddle, complicate, overcomplicate, muddy, cloud, befog
"mere rationalizations to obfuscate rather than clarify the real issue"
bewilder (someone).
"it is more likely to obfuscate people than enlighten them"
synonyms: bewilder, mystify, puzzle, perplex, confuse, baffle, confound, bemuse, befuddle, nonplus; informalflummox
"her work became more and more obfuscated by mathematics and jargon"

[Isotherm]

Thanks for the kind words Scott and mugs. Hopefully we can see something interesting before we begin looking toward the warm season.

[amugs]

Thanks for the kind words Scott and mugs. Hopefully we can see something interesting before we begin looking toward the warm season.

I am like Scott in more ways than one and I don't blow smoke up folks arses but yuo have been on this winter and teh last three since we have been on forums together - well since I joined forums you are on.

[Guest]

Redfield NY. 59" of snow last 36 hours and still snowing

[HectorO]

We need a "the rest of winter" confidence meter. Mine's would be about 1%. I've heard the "shifting" talk since November. Looking forward to spring and longer days.

[HectorO]

Redfield NY. 59" of snow last 36 hours and still snowing

Of course, Oswego County averages more than some snow resorts out west.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Redfield NY. 59" of snow last 36 hours and still snowing

Of course, Oswego County averages more than some snow resorts out west.

Yep 200-300 inch avergage per year in some of those towns and inthe tug hill plateau of NY a couple of spots average over 300 inches. One of these days......

My confidence meter not quite as low but it's around 20%.

[Grselig]

I hate this talk about spring. It just feels wrong. Yes, baseball would be cool, but its only Feb 3rd. I know that the numbers don't look good, but I really want one zilla storm this year. Just one. Otherwise its a wasted season and life is too short to have wasted seasons.

[docstox12]

Redfield NY. 59" of snow last 36 hours and still snowing

Of course, Oswego County averages more than some snow resorts out west.

Yep 200-300 inch avergage per year in some of those towns and inthe tug hill plateau of NY a couple of spots average over 300 inches. One of these days......

My confidence meter not quite as low but it's around 20%.

Well CP, I figure it this way the starry eyed optimist I am.There are really 4 major months for snow around these parts, Dec, Jan, Feb and Mar.Dec and Jan are now burned so 50% of the snow possibility is over.That still leaves Feb and Mar so my optimism level is 50% right now.By the middle of Mar it will have dwindled to where I will throw in the towel if no snow is on the horizon then.In my experience, long range modeling is for guidance purposes only.Anything can happen.For example, people were lounging on blankets in, dare I say this, Central Park with the temps in the 70's a few days before the March 1888 Blizzard and look what happened there,LOL.KCACO!!!

[amugs]

Doc ^^^^ you were there sipping vino and eating cheese with Louisa back then??

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Redfield NY. 59" of snow last 36 hours and still snowing

Of course, Oswego County averages more than some snow resorts out west.

Yep 200-300 inch avergage per year in some of those towns and inthe tug hill plateau of NY a couple of spots average over 300 inches. One of these days......

My confidence meter not quite as low but it's around 20%.

Well CP, I figure it this way the starry eyed optimist I am.There are really 4 major months for snow around these parts, Dec, Jan, Feb and Mar.Dec and Jan are now burned so 50% of the snow possibility is over.That still leaves Feb and Mar so my optimism level is 50% right now.By the middle of Mar it will have dwindled to where I will throw in the towel if no snow is on the horizon then.In my experience, long range modeling is for guidance purposes only.Anything can happen.For example, people were lounging on blankets in, dare I say this, Central Park with the temps in the 70's a few days before the March 1888 Blizzard and look what happened there,LOL.KCACO!!!

Thanks Doc I needed that.

I can't stand when people say in February bring on the warm weather as if it's going to be magically in the 70's everyday in February and March. Historic perspective please, the average high temperature in NYC doesn't hit 70 until May 11, that's when you can expect to see consistent 70 degree weather. Although in this God awful pattern weve e been locked into for 20 months maybe we throw historic normals out the window.

OTI Sanitarium here I come.

[frank 638]

Yea this weather pattern sucks I can't believe we have been stuck in pattern for 20 months when will it change

[HectorO]

Redfield NY. 59" of snow last 36 hours and still snowing

Of course, Oswego County averages more than some snow resorts out west.

Yep 200-300 inch avergage per year in some of those towns and inthe tug hill plateau of NY a couple of spots average over 300 inches. One of these days......

My confidence meter not quite as low but it's around 20%.

Well CP, I figure it this way the starry eyed optimist I am.There are really 4 major months for snow around these parts, Dec, Jan, Feb and Mar.Dec and Jan are now burned so 50% of the snow possibility is over.That still leaves Feb and Mar so my optimism level is 50% right now.By the middle of Mar it will have dwindled to where I will throw in the towel if no snow is on the horizon then.In my experience, long range modeling is for guidance purposes only.Anything can happen.For example, people were lounging on blankets in, dare I say this, Central Park with the temps in the 70's a few days before the March 1888 Blizzard and look what happened there,LOL.KCACO!!!

Thanks Doc I needed that.

I can't stand when people say in February bring on the warm weather as if it's going to be magically in the 70's everyday in February and March. Historic perspective please, the average high temperature in NYC doesn't hit 70 until May 11, that's when you can expect to see consistent 70 degree weather. Although in this God awful pattern weve e been locked into for 20 months maybe we throw historic normals out the window.

OTI Sanitarium here I come.

Well then I hope you believe in magic. No such thing as averages this winter, 2 cold days and 2 weeks of warmth is far from it. Although February looks to be colder than January (as if that's hard to do) I'm not sure if we're going to get a big one. Ane even if we do, I'm sure rain will wash the snow away a day or two later. That's why I always say "1" big storm doesn't salvage anything. We had a day in January that damn near almost hit 70. If February finishes this cold you know March isn't going to be cold. We'll see some 70s. I mean we don't see many months where you get back to back cold months.

[Guest]

A few days ago Tuesday's storm (when there was still a chance of frozen precip) showed .60" QPF for our area. Now it will be rain and it's up to 1.4". I BET IT VERIFIES PERCECTLY

[docstox12]

Doc ^^^^ you were there sipping vino and eating cheese with Louisa back then??

LOL, Mugs, maybe I was heh,heh,heh!!!

[Fededle22]

Instead of a snow confidence meter, maybe we should just switch to a count down to when pitchers and catchers report or maybe number of days to first game of MLB. I'm not a big fan of shoveling but I am a fan of snow storms.

[Guest]

I can't believe that it looks like we're going to have two diabolically horrific winters back to back.

[weatherwatchermom]

sad my morning doves are here...they nest in the same spot every year...sad because they are almost a month early...but glad they are still around....glass half full or empty

[billg315]

Ok, this post is designed to prompt a big snowstorm. Usually if I brag about something I'm quickly humbled so . . .
I never saw this being a good snow winter. When I looked at "the year after an El Nino" winters in the past they mostly seemed to be under-performers in the snow department. I know that isn't everything, but it can't be discounted. If you look at my Central Park snowfall projection (and Godzilla projection) in the "Winter Contest" it is sitting pretty right now. Also, note however, when I posted that I added the parenthetical about March, because even in a snow deprived winter, sometimes March can give us a good unexpected blast of snow out of the blue.

[Grselig]

I'm hoping to throw in the towel today and pick it up around the 11th. Hopefully SROC is accurate.

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