Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

by **billg315** Sat Feb 04, 2017 10:34 am

Ok, this post is designed to prompt a big snowstorm. Usually if I brag about something I'm quickly humbled so . . .
I never saw this being a good snow winter. When I looked at "the year after an El Nino" winters in the past they mostly seemed to be under-performers in the snow department. I know that isn't everything, but it can't be discounted. If you look at my Central Park snowfall projection (and Godzilla projection) in the "Winter Contest" it is sitting pretty right now. Also, note however, when I posted that I added the parenthetical about March, because even in a snow deprived winter, sometimes March can give us a good unexpected blast of snow out of the blue.

by **Grselig** Sat Feb 04, 2017 12:14 pm

I'm hoping to throw in the towel today and pick it up around the 11th. Hopefully SROC is accurate.

by Guest Sat Feb 04, 2017 12:18 pm

It's something to hope for, which is more than we've had so far.

by **frank 638** Sat Feb 04, 2017 12:34 pm

Does anyone remember the blizzard of 93 in March
I was 11 years old when the storm happened .I would never forget how strong the winds were and the snow changed to sleet for a while before going back to snow .when the wind blew sleet on our windows we thought our windows would break I would never forget how heavy the sleet was .I am just hopeing this winter we would see a snowstorm for everyone before winter is done

by **docstox12** Sat Feb 04, 2017 1:08 pm

frank 638 wrote:Does anyone remember the blizzard of 93 in March
I was 11 years old when the storm happened .I would never forget how strong the winds were and the snow changed to sleet for a while before going back to snow .when the wind blew sleet on our windows we thought our windows would break I would never forget how heavy the sleet was .I am just hopeing this winter we would see a snowstorm for everyone before winter is done

Frank, I remember that one very well.The night before the temps were near 40 degrees and I didn't think the storm would produce.However, that day the storm hit with incredible intensity.Heavy, wind driven snow that accumulated rapidly, must have been over 2 inch per hour rates.However, I tuned in to the Weather Channel when I got home from work( most of my patients cancelled out so I got home around 12 noon) , and they were already reporting sleet down the Jersey Shore, so I knew in about an hour I would be doomed to slop.Sure enough, it changed and at least 3 inches of sleet fell on top of 14 inches of snow.Shoveling that was no picnic.Had the storm been 50 miles East I would have gotten over 30 inches which is what NEPA got from the storm.Anyway, a monumental area wide storm especially for March.This is why I never throw in the towel until after mid March.

by **SENJsnowman** Sat Feb 04, 2017 5:14 pm

track17 wrote:Well all I know is the weather apps have been spot on all winter. At least for the jersey shore.

Track is kinda right that the weather apps have been nailing the 'Shorecasts' this winter. In fact, Track nailed the big windstorm, saying that it would be more hat than cattle.

That said, the apps (and the pros) did all whiff on our Jan 7th storm...a bona fide Mothra for the Shore. No app or TV/radio met that I know of had us for more than 1-3 until the morning of. The folk here saw it coming a week away...literally!

So, for me, I'm seeing the apps and media as being basically reliable long range and when people here disagree with them I just keep my head on a swivel, looking at both, until one view emerges as stronger than the other or until everyone agrees.

(This seemed to fit better in banter, so I copied the OP from long range.)

by **Quietace** Sat Feb 04, 2017 5:17 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
track17 wrote:Well all I know is the weather apps have been spot on all winter. At least for the jersey shore.
Track is kinda right that the weather apps have been nailing the 'Shorecasts' this winter. In fact, Track nailed the big windstorm, saying that it would be more hat than cattle.

That said, the apps (and the pros) did all whiff on our Jan 7th storm...a bona fide Mothra for the Shore. No app or TV/radio met that I know of had us for more than 1-3 until the morning of. The folk here saw it coming a week away...literally!

So, for me, I'm seeing the apps and media as being basically reliable long range and when people here disagree with them I just keep my head on a swivel, looking at both, until one view emerges as stronger than the other or until everyone agrees.

(This seemed to fit better in banter, so I copied the OP from long range.)

Sigh. You did not see the point of my comment.

by **SENJsnowman** Sat Feb 04, 2017 5:33 pm

That's not true at all. I was only assessing Tracks comment in a vacuum, without respect to your point. Your point was 1 line long and clearly stated...in other words, it was impossible to not see it. Furthermore, your point is hard to argue with, it's patently true on its face.

I was only engaging with what Track said, without respect to your follow up. What he said was true and I can only perceive the info that my met knowledge allows for, which ain't much.

Is that better, dude?

by **Quietace** Sat Feb 04, 2017 5:45 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:That's not true at all. I was only assessing Tracks comment in a vacuum, without respect to your point. Your point was 1 line long and clearly stated...in other words, it was impossible to not see it. Furthermore, your point is hard to argue with, it's patently true on its face.

I was only engaging with what Track said, without respect to your follow up. What he said was true and I can only perceive the info that my met knowledge allows for, which ain't much.

Is that better, dude?

Your original comment got me thinking. With it given I do not look at weather apps, I would like to see a study on their accuracy. This is mainly due to what I said before, they are directly derived from the GFS who horizontal resolution views many shorelines like ours, and Long Island's as water with effective elevation of 0. This is a unfortunate circumstance of grid box's and limitations of computing power but as we continue to downscale weather models aka the HRRR, this flaw will hopefully improve. I will have to dig around for a study because I am sure someone has to have looked at this. Though I will say the effective accuracy would be low given the huge grid box's present. Some locations would have no error, while other locations would have high errors due to simple elevation and environmental differences. Just because one location was spot on does not mean the mean error was still relatively large, but this is hypothetical at the moment.

by **SENJsnowman** Sun Feb 05, 2017 8:35 am

One thing I know for sure, the GFS and the Euro routinely show a dry or rainy Jersey Shore when everyone else is supposed to catch snow, whether short range or long range. Not sure why, maybe it's the elevation levels or interference from the Ocean like you mentioned, but it almost never fails.

Occasionally, it misses the other way, showing snow for us and we get none...that happened last weekend in fact. But those instances don't happen from general model shortcomings, but more because actual atmospheric conditions changed.

When the apps do call for snow, the amounts of snow called for are usually understated...they hardly ever say more than 1 inch for the Shore. So, I use the TWC forecasts of at least an inch to measure their confidence level in snow v. no snow or snow v. rain/mix. If it persists for at least 2 runs and we are within 3-4 days, I start to get excited...I know I shouldn't, but I just can't help it.

This is why, when the app shows a big fat snowflake in my forecast, especially short range, I cannot help myself: I get excited. ESPECIALLY when it's a day time snow flake. Especially when it's for 1-3 inches accumulating. Like it says right now for this Thursday!!!

(The countdown to the deflated feeling when the Thursday snowflake disappears from my phone by sometime later today can now begin).

by **Dunnzoo** Sun Feb 05, 2017 9:01 am

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Weatherperson%27s_Day

Happy Weatherperson's Day!

by **RJB8525** Sun Feb 05, 2017 9:25 am

very cool

happy weatherperson's day

by Guest Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:23 am

I hope EVERYONE (INCLUDING PEOPLE LIKE JMAN WHO DONT LIKE SPORTS) REGARDLESS OF POLITICAL BELIEFS OR ETHNICITY, WATCH THE SUPER BOWL TODAY. DRINK AMERICAN MADE BEER, EAT MAC AND CHEESE AND MEAT WITH WINGS AND APPLE PIE. BE PATRIOTIC TODAY!!!

by **Quietace** Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:28 am

syosnow94 wrote:I hope EVERYONE (INCLUDING PEOPLE LIKE JMAN WHO DONT LIKE SPORTS) REGARDLESS OF POLITICAL BELIEFS OR ETHNICITY, WATCH THE SUPER BOWL TODAY. DRINK AMERICAN MADE BEER, EAT MAC AND CHEESE AND MEAT WITH WINGS AND APPLE PIE. BE PATRIOTIC TODAY!!!

I will be multi-tasking. One monitor has the game, my laptop screen my references, and the other monitor has one of my 4 papers I have going right know. All of my friends are going to one of them's apartment, I just don't have the time for that...gotta be productive while also doing my civic duty santa

by **Grselig** Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:35 am

Quietace wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:I hope EVERYONE (INCLUDING PEOPLE LIKE JMAN WHO DONT LIKE SPORTS) REGARDLESS OF POLITICAL BELIEFS OR ETHNICITY, WATCH THE SUPER BOWL TODAY. DRINK AMERICAN MADE BEER, EAT MAC AND CHEESE AND MEAT WITH WINGS AND APPLE PIE. BE PATRIOTIC TODAY!!!
I will be multi-tasking. One monitor has the game, my laptop screen my references, and the other monitor has one of my 4 papers I have going right know. All of my friends are going to one of them's apartment, I just don't have the time for that...gotta be productive while also doing my civic duty

I do not yet understand why today is not a national holiday. Everybody should be off tomorrow as well. No mail. No banks. Just like New Year's Day.

by **Grselig** Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:36 am

Hope. So there is a potential storm on Feb 9th. So far this winter has been cruel.

All about Hope.

Having said that, I'm still a sucker for hope!

by **amugs** Sun Feb 05, 2017 1:44 pm

Tug Hill wow!! This is a white weenie dream!!
https://twitter.com/MarkSperduti/status/828029234585141248

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sun Feb 05, 2017 1:58 pm

amugs wrote:Tug Hill wow!! This is a white weenie dream!!
https://twitter.com/MarkSperduti/status/828029234585141248

Tug Hill Plateau in NY is a snow lovers heaven. Amazing pictures, paradise.

by **RJB8525** Mon Feb 06, 2017 11:24 am

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Feb 06, 2017 12:01 pm

RJB8525 wrote:

You can check out any time you like.......
But you can ne-ver leave!

by **Math23x7** Tue Feb 07, 2017 12:00 am

Some interesting developments over the last couple of days. We'll see if they last. Last year, on January 16th, I was catching up with some old college friends in the city and the long range did not look bright at that point for any snow. I vented (albeit without shouting) saying that the weather had been boring and then went on to say "Give me something! Please God, give me something!! PLEASE!" in frustration. I went home that night and saw the light snow forecasted on the HRRR, and it gave us the first accumulating snow on the 17th. While the light snow was falling, models began to pick up on the potential Godzilla for that weekend. Cut to six days later, it it became a Roidzilla!

Now, two days ago, things looked bleak, and in frustration I thought "That's it, screw this winter!" and put away the ice melt and shovel into the garage. Cut to two days later and there's something to track for later this week. Still a long way to go though.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 07, 2017 12:31 am

Math23x7 wrote:Some interesting developments over the last couple of days. We'll see if they last. Last year, on January 16th, I was catching up with some old college friends in the city and the long range did not look bright at that point for any snow. I vented (albeit without shouting) saying that the weather had been boring and then went on to say "Give me something! Please God, give me something!! PLEASE!" in frustration. I went home that night and saw the light snow forecasted on the HRRR, and it gave us the first accumulating snow on the 17th. While the light snow was falling, models began to pick up on the potential Godzilla for that weekend. Cut to six days later, it it became a Roidzilla!

Now, two days ago, things looked bleak, and in frustration I thought "That's it, screw this winter!" and put away the ice melt and shovel into the garage. Cut to two days later and there's something to track for later this week. Still a long way to go though.

And knowing this why did you wait until two days ago?

by **Dunnzoo** Tue Feb 07, 2017 12:37 pm

Crap, going to be mobile almost all day tomorrow! No internet at my FIL's house in Forked River!

by **Grselig** Tue Feb 07, 2017 12:45 pm

NWS just took away my "Hazardous Weather Alert". Will it be replaced....??? Very Happy

Most people threw in the towel last week. I did. No regrets.

by Guest Tue Feb 07, 2017 12:47 pm

Math I posted this yesterday. I need your help here.

I think Frank was referencing my personal favorite storm of all time. It was rain and turned to snow about 9 pm. Snowed till 3 am. Picked up 19" in 6 hours. YES I KNOW WHAT I JUST TYPED. it switched over in Philadelphia first and they got slammed. I remember the weather channel reporting 2-4" per hour rates and I was like yeah right!!!!

We need Math to give us the correct date. HANDS DIWN MY FAVORITE EVENT EVER. WATCHED EVERY FLAKE IN FRONT OF THE FIRE WITH JACK........Daniels

by **Math23x7** Tue Feb 07, 2017 12:55 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Math I posted this yesterday. I need your help here.

I think Frank was referencing my personal favorite storm of all time. It was rain and turned to snow about 9 pm. Snowed till 3 am. Picked up 19" in 6 hours. YES I KNOW WHAT I JUST TYPED. it switched over in Philadelphia first and they got slammed. I remember the weather channel reporting 2-4" per hour rates and I was like yeah right!!!!

We need Math to give us the correct date. HANDS DIWN MY FAVORITE EVENT EVER. WATCHED EVERY FLAKE IN FRONT OF THE FIRE WITH JACK........Daniels

Uh James, you mentioned this at the meetup we had in the city on 1/10/15. The storm you are referencing is likely the 1/26-27/11 snow event. I screamed (because it was noisy there from the football game that was one) to you "FRANK CALLED IT!"

In the Storm Archives section, I talk about this storm. And I have video footage in four parts (part 2 is the one you need to watch, which is not in the first post but several posts below).

Here is the link: https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t449-4th-anniversary-of-january-26th-27th-2011-the-storm-that-frank-called

And by the way, I'll post my video here:

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 07, 2017 1:01 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Math I posted this yesterday. I need your help here.

I think Frank was referencing my personal favorite storm of all time. It was rain and turned to snow about 9 pm. Snowed till 3 am. Picked up 19" in 6 hours. YES I KNOW WHAT I JUST TYPED. it switched over in Philadelphia first and they got slammed. I remember the weather channel reporting 2-4" per hour rates and I was like yeah right!!!!

We need Math to give us the correct date. HANDS DIWN MY FAVORITE EVENT EVER. WATCHED EVERY FLAKE IN FRONT OF THE FIRE WITH JACK........Daniels

The Jack Daniels insertion into this story makes me question both its authenticity or at the very least its accuracy.

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