Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

[jmanley32]

So I am placing this in banter cuz I m not in the NJWX area but let me say I came to the right spot for tonights snow, its coming down light to moderately at times, nearing a half inch of so, looks by radar go snow all night, sweeet! Futurecase moderate snow through 5am and still western  edge is over western CT, I didnt being my ruler damnit, can't add it to my totals anyways LOL. Thios is where I am at, slightly south of the marker but weather.com does not recognize uncasville, ct.

https://weather.com/weather/radar/interactive/l/USCT0155:1:US?layer=radarConus&zoom=8&animation=true

[jmanley32]

I am THE LAST member of this board to have a reason to complain about this winter, so the following is NOT A COMPLAINT (it is a threat)!!  If Red Sox Suck gets 2 God/Roidzillas in the next 6 days while we get little or nothing I'm going to single handedly drive up there and rent a giant heater and find that traitor Jim Cantore (he's from NY) follow him around and melt all the snow as it falls around him so he's as miserable as the rest of us and he gets Jack Diddley Shit!!!!!

By the way my next post will be my 1996th post.  anyone remember that winter?

We definitely picked the right man as Director of Mental Health. As I said at the time we need someone whose been there and back. Sounds like your on your way there again.

Cantore loves Bostoians (hah got over your filter Frank) because either he is from there (yet you say he is from NY) or hi went to school up there its one or the other but he has a bias to go to Red Sox town (a personal one). Bot I totally agree with you, we need to see a winter like they did a few years ago tunneling down streets and complete mayhem, snow piles till July!!

[Guest]

Even though this isn't supposed to be a very significant snow event, I still find myself unable to do much of anything without sneaking back here to see if anybody has posted anything new. Is there any room in Frank's 12 step group?

[docstox12]

Even though this isn't supposed to be a very significant snow event, I still find myself unable to do much of anything without sneaking back here to see if anybody has posted anything new. Is there any room in Frank's 12 step group?

My friend, the Sanitarium at OTI runs a wonderful 12 step program for snowaholics, and, as Director of the Sanitarium, I can help you with a customized treatment program that suits your needs.We are open 24/7 to serve snowaholics.Contact Treasury Director CP, who recently underwent therapy for Snow Deprivation Syndrome,my Director of Mental Health, syosnow or myself should you desire more information.

Peace

Docstox

[Guest]

Will my insurance cover this?

[docstox12]

Will my insurance cover this?

Any citizen of OTI is automatically covered by Bannanacare, our Island Health program.Since we grow our own currency, the OTI dollar is bannana/coconut/mango based, the Treasury is always in surplus thus this health benefit is available to all OTI Citizens.Give some thought to becoming an OTI Citizen so you would AUTOMATICALLY be covered at the Sanitarium for the therapy of your choice.In lieu of that, the Sanitarium accepts all Mainland Health Plans as payment but your plan would have to be examined for co-pays and percentages paid out for psychiatric therapy.Snowaholicism and Snow Deprivation Syndrome are covered maladies on most insurance plans.

Hope this helps!

[Guest]

I hope my mainland shrink isn't the jealous type. So, um, how do I sign up?

[docstox12]

I hope my mainland shrink isn't the jealous type. So, um, how do I sign up?

I will rubber stamp your Visa Aresian.When you arrive on the Island, consult the Bureau of Tourism for a brochure on the Sanitarium for directions.Once there, see me in my office.Good luck Sir!!!

[Guest]

My plane just landed.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

My plane just landed.

That's a problem because we don't have an airport but I guess we now have a landing strip courteousy of the Aresian. I would suggest on your next visit take the OTI shuttle boat, the "queen snow biknini" it's usually docked in sector 7.

[Guest]

Good grief. I hope I landed on the right island. I remember a story about 7 people getting stuck on an island and it seemed like they were there forever.

[jmanley32]

Good grief. I hope I landed on the right island. I remember a story about 7 people getting stuck on an island and it seemed like they were there forever.

man frank said we are all crazy tp a new member during last storm. He ain't kidding lol. Fantasy islands I know we had that thread but wow love it.

[SNOW MAN]

Anybody watching the special on the sun on the Discovery channel narrated by Sting ? It should be interesting. It started at 10:00 pm

[Frank_Wx]

I need to complain. I am at 19 inches of snow this winter. Way below normal. Its been mild too. Early grade, a D

[Guest]

Blame Iso. He's the one who called for below average snow fall for your area this winter.

[algae888]

I need to complain. I am at 19 inches of snow this winter. Way below normal. Its been mild too. Early grade, a D

i'm at 24.5". normal is about 30" here. so AN att. I would say a C as temps to warm and no snowpack most of winter. will need one more 6+ or several smaller ones to bring grade to a B.

[SNOW MAN]

Don't feel bad Frank. I didn't even get to 15 inches this year. Very disappointing Winter in my area. Hopefully next year will be better.

[Frank_Wx]

Blame Iso. He's the one who called for below average snow fall for your area this winter.

I normally do. Isotherm, aka Tom, also made this map BTW.

Damn you, Tom!

[billg315]

I need to complain. I am at 19 inches of snow this winter. Way below normal. Its been mild too. Early grade, a D

FRANK!! lol.

p.s. I'm at about 15" (probably being generous). The time to catch up to my average of 30" is dwindling. I need to complain too.

[Guest]

Red Sox Suck only got 5" from this past storm when they were forecast for 12-18". That should cheer everyone up

[RJB8525]

I need to complain. I am at 19 inches of snow this winter. Way below normal. Its been mild too. Early grade, a D

i might be 90 by the time i see that 40" average again lol

[sroc4]

LOVE LOVE this conversation. Wanted to say it so moved it here in case we want to cont it. Ray honestly truer words havent been spoken.


by TheAresian Today at 11:35 am

rb924119 wrote:
TheAresian wrote:
rb, while I agree with you and your frustration, let me play devil's advocate for a second. This Thursday's storm is a good example of the problem that forecasters face. The Euro called for a phase of the 2 systems up until just recently while the GFS always went the other way. You can't go on TV and tell people that there will either be a severe storm or a weak storm. The viewer doesn't care about phases and closed lows and what happens at 500mb. They want quick and easy and if there's one thing I've learned on this board, it's that predicting the weather is anything but quick and easy.

Great counter! BUT, my frustration is NOT coming from the fact that there is always a degree of uncertainty in every forecast. I'm not arguing that at all. My frustration stems from them living and dying by models, and following them/changing their forecasts every time the models change. My point is that if they took time to look at everything, they should make "a forecast" at some unspecified lead time. For example, as you brought up Thursday, my (quiet) stance on that system has been OTS since the end of last week because I didn't like the western ridge orientation and noted the fact that every deep southern stream system this season has not ejected out in its entirety, nor quickly. I couldn't care less about what the smaller results were of phasing or not phasing, rain versus snow. I made a prediction. Then, I stuck with it; I didn't change it from "40 and mostly sunny" to "36 and mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow" to "33 and a chance of a storm" to now "40 and partly sunny". By continuously changing your forecast with the models you decrease your accuracy. Think about it; you make a forecast and stick with it until the day before. If it's right you were 100%. If you have to change it the day before, you're still 50%. The way they do it, they make four forecasts, still change the day before, and then still end up to be wrong sometimes. Even if they're right with their final forecast, they're still only accurate 20% of the time.

Now, you could say that by not changing with models you aren't making the uncertainty known. My counter to that is even though you stick with your call, you can still just mention something like "I'm alone in this forecast right now, as guidance says 'x', and I will alert you to any changes in my forecast as soon as I can." But by taking a stance, you demonstrate you have a backbone and aren't afraid to follow what you believe. People understand that it is a highly imperfect science and there will be busts, they know this. But when you constantly change and are STILL wrong (ala B-ston) it starts changing the public view of our broader reputation, understandably, yet the people responsible are the first to retaliate. THAT's where my frustration comes from.

I think your idea for saying you split from guidance is the best way to go, but media personalities are the wrong place to look for the integrity that you and the rest of the forecasters on this board possess.

And my apologies to the mods and other members is this is banter rather than discussion.

[rb924119]

I have absolutely nothing against the fact that they're wrong; heck, I'm wrong all the time. It's part of the field, the science, the nature of the beast. That's how you learn. But when they just don't pay attention, do things like that, are still wrong, and then make excuses for why they're wrong, in the positions that they're in really hurts our science. They have such potential be spokesmen (and women) for our field, and some are, believe me some are, and actually show that while yes we are wrong sometimes, we CAN and DO regularly get things right, but they just continuously let it slip by them, while people like us in the shadows do much better jobs but don't have the opportunity to reach the masses because some aren't "certified". I'd take any of you guys, or the collective sum for that matter, over the entirety of our local media forecasters twice on every day that ends in "y". I don't know if they are laxadaisical because they're satisfied with the money associated with being on big networks and have lost the the passion, don't care at all, don't know too much, or are afflicted by parts of all of the above, but it absolutely grinds my gears to hear someone say "must be nice to still get paid to be wrong all the time" when it's really, in my experience, people and entities with the power to change that mindset that are the cause of it.

[rb924119]

And there is absolutely no reason that they couldn't take a stance while stating the possibilities. "Here's what's on the table, but THIS is what I think and why." Doesn't need to be complicated and as in depth as we are on here; completely agree that most don't care and all they want to know is if it's going to snow or not, but just "I don't think this storm will happen because so far this season these types of events have not happened in the way that this model shows (shows graphic pointing out two H5 pieces of energy). See how the energies come together? That hasn't happened in this way yet this season for various reasons, but reasons that have played out several times and the models failed to pick up on it this far out. So while yes there is a storm chance, disagree with this solution and think it goes OTS, which is reflected in the 7-day. Any changes and I'll let you know." Done. Not complex, not long winded, yet effective in demonstrating your point, educating the audience for 20 seconds, and letting them know the potential bust factor in your forecast but that you will communicate changes as soon as you have them. In my opinion, this would make a world of difference in how our field is viewed by the public, by the government (mayors, etc.), and by the other media.

[dkodgis]

Well said all the way around. I once heard a local tell me he would sooner trust the president of the United States than the weatherman. I understand people want simple, quick answers and they have an expectation that experts know how to produce those on the spot when asked because after all experts are experts. There is no accounting for the complexity of it all. The point we predictions and forecasts that are close and right some to most of the time is testimony to the level of expertise of professionals. But maybe on TV is where we cannot get the level we want and this is why we find ourselves here on the board. Let me make the point that when Joe Bastardi predicted a few years of ice-cold winter for 2013 and 2014, I am sure he raised some folks' eyebrows. He is singular in his views and his approach and he appears to be able to argue his positions effectively. He has a different medium and scope than what Lee Goldberg and others have on a three to four minute segment on TV. Then when I see the Weather Channel, I see the forum, the time, the expertise, but I see dumbed-down infotainment. So where is the common meeting ground and how should weather forecasting evolve and meet the masses and their expectations? Hell, I don't know. If it were not for this board, I would know even less. I am glad it is here and you all care about what you say and do.

[Guest]

Let me give you an example of good forecasters at work: My daughter goes to school in South Carolina. Back a bit when the Carolinas got their snow, I called her to check on the weather down there and she told me something interesting. The local weatherman told them during his coverage of the storm that at that present moment he couldn't make a forecast because they were tracking 50 possible outcomes and that he would give his forecast as soon as he was confident in it. That's the first and only time I've ever heard of a TV weather person even hinting at the existence of the ensembles, let alone say they weren't able to make an exact forecast due to uncertainty so she knew to wait to plan.

On the other hand, there are people like my mom who are a perfect example of what we're talking about. I spent days telling her about a storm that we were tracking and it meant nothing to her until Al Roker mentioned it on TWC. We're in a culture where being on TV or radio gives anybody an air of credibility beyond merit.

As for the last part of rb's post about getting paid for being wrong, I would say this. If a storm is predicted to hit my town and missed a mile off to the east, 3000 people can now say that the forecast was wrong. It makes no difference that the forecast was dead solid perfect for the 10,000 people in the next town. And people remember the mistakes because those are the things that inconvenience them.

[sroc4]

Let me give you an example of good forecasters at work: My daughter goes to school in South Carolina. Back a bit when the Carolinas got their snow, I called her to check on the weather down there and she told me something interesting. The local weatherman told them during his coverage of the storm that at that present moment he couldn't make a forecast because they were tracking 50 possible outcomes and that he would give his forecast as soon as he was confident in it. That's the first and only time I've ever heard of a TV weather person even hinting at the existence of the ensembles, let alone say they weren't able to make an exact forecast due to uncertainty so she knew to wait to plan.

On the other hand, there are people like my mom who are a perfect example of what we're talking about. I spent days telling her about a storm that we were tracking and it meant nothing to her until Al Roker mentioned it on TWC. We're in a culture where being on TV or radio gives anybody an air of credibility beyond merit.

As for the last part of rb's post about getting paid for being wrong, I would say this. If a storm is predicted to hit my town and missed a mile off to the east, 3000 people can now say that the forecast was wrong. It makes no difference that the forecast was dead solid perfect for the 10,000 people in the next town. And people remember the mistakes because those are the things that inconvenience them.  

This last statement can also be applied to the storm that will not be for us this Thursday.  Jim in the other thread said something along the lines of..there was a roidzilla on the table for thursday, and now POOF its gone.   Jim sorry to pick on you bud, you know I love you, but I know many are thinking the same thing.  The system IS NOT GONE.   The two pieces that are to be this system are literally off by about 16-18hrs.  If the energy in the circle in the southern branch was 16-18hrs faster the N energy has a chance to dig into the back side of it and steer it up the coast and boom we have a coastal storm that affects the megalopolous.  



 

Instead the timing is such that the system doesnt disappear; rather, it actually comes together; Its simply coming together too far to our N&E to affect us in OUR backyards.  






Like you said in your example above when a population of people dont get what they expected in their backyards its "how can this happen?"  When in reality, on a scale Mother Nature is used to, a difference of less than 20hrs and 250-350miles +/- when you look at the big picture is nothing.   In reality we collectively saw the potential for this system weeks ago, and called it out.  And we were DEAD ON BALLS spot on.  The system comes together but instead of affecting the N Mid Atlantic it is going to affect N NE.

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