Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

[billg315]

Lol. That is the irony. In Jan.-Feb when we want snow we can get plenty of rain but when we really want some rain in July-August it is nowhere to be found.

[mikeypizano]

Lol. That is the irony. In Jan.-Feb when we want snow we can get plenty of rain but when we really want some rain in July-August it is nowhere to be found.

Same with below average temperatures and wind!

[jmanley32]

Do not worry, not model hugging but suppression seems to be a prevalent thing on the models for both events. Not even looking at next week, but nothing has really worked out this year why expect anything more? I am gonna head back to hiatus and come back Friday morning, hopefully we are staring down a monster.

[nutleyblizzard]

Do not worry, not model hugging but suppression seems to be a prevalent thing on the models for both events.  Not even looking at next week, but nothing has really worked out this year why expect anything more? I am gonna head back to hiatus and come back Friday morning, hopefully we are staring down  a monster.

As a fellow weather enthusiast once said "snow breeds snow". Back in the historic winter of '96, it would snow even if there were times that the pattern would not be favorable. This season looks to be the opposite. There were times that the setup would "scream" for something big, only to fall apart as we got closer to the event. Our hope with this Sunday's potential is if we continue with the trend this winter that the northern block is being too amped up and weakens in the days ahead. If the weather gods are reading this post and obliges, we cash in big time. If not, its another kick in the nuts (pardon the pun) to this god forsaken winter.

[jmanley32]

AHAHAHA CMC just to make sure our forum blows up carved out nearly the entire forum....

meanwhile NC/SC sees 8-12 inches of snow....how often does that happen down there in 2nd week of march?

[Math23x7]

AHAHAHA CMC just to make sure our forum blows up carved out nearly the entire forum....

meanwhile NC/SC sees 8-12 inches of snow....how often does that happen down there in 2nd week of march?

The OTI Sanitarium would see a rapid rise in patients without question.

[jmanley32]

AHAHAHA CMC just to make sure our forum blows up carved out nearly the entire forum....

meanwhile NC/SC sees 8-12 inches of snow....how often does that happen down there in 2nd week of march?

The OTI Sanitarium would see a rapid rise in patients without question.

palm trees do not get to have snow, its just wrong, just damn wrong. Theres a reason they call it the south, because its warm with no snow people may start moving up here to escape the winter weathere hahahahah

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

People will be sleeping in the hallways. It's already overbooked.

[docstox12]

Even though this year is getting poor grades for winter, the last 15 years has been exceptional for snow totals in this area.Here's a truly depressing stretch at CP for snow lovers:

1949-1950---13.8"
1950-1951---11.6"
1951-1952---19.7"
1952-1953---15.1"
1953-1954---15.8"
1954-1955---11.5"

Data from the New York News 1966 Weather Almanac

This illustrates that even in a period with cooler overall temperatures compared to recent times there still was a long stretch of bust years.

[sroc4]

Even though this year is getting poor grades for winter, the last 15 years has been exceptional for snow totals in this area.Here's a truly depressing stretch at CP for snow lovers:

1949-1950---13.8"
1950-1951---11.6"
1951-1952---19.7"
1952-1953---15.1"
1953-1954---15.8"
1954-1955---11.5"

Data from the New York News 1966 Weather Almanac

This illustrates that even in a period with cooler overall temperatures compared to recent times there still was a long stretch of bust years.

Great point Doc. Of course as you know that's how we get averages. It's usually the ups and downs that lead us to the avg snowfall or temps for an area. I don't know the statistics but it would be interesting to see over a 25 yr or even 50-100yr span how many times the temp or snowfall was actually mod to well above/below avg and compare that to when the result was actually at or near avg.

[Guest]

I just noticed that today is my 3 year anniversary here.

[sroc4]

I just noticed that today is my 3 year anniversary here.  

[Guest]

I just noticed that today is my 3 year anniversary here.  

That was a better anniversary gift than anything I saw while I was married.

[sroc4]

I just noticed that today is my 3 year anniversary here.  

That was a better anniversary gift than anything I saw while I was married.

[sroc4]

Hey Mikey. Notice DT has changed his mind about snow and cold threats.

[Math23x7]

Hey Mikey.  Notice DT has changed his mind about snow and cold threats.

I watched this last night, he also mentioned what has to occur in the upper level features in order for the potential big snowstorm to occur (referring to the Omega ridge and the ULL in the PAC northwest). It would be nice if this winter went out with a bang but I'm not getting my hopes up at this juncture.

[Dunnzoo]

FYI, Joe Cioffi will be skyping in to our North Jersey Weather Observers meeting tonight. If you are in the area of Washington Twp in Bergen County, feel free to stop by at 7:00 at Temple Beth Or. Should be a fun discussion!

[jmanley32]

if this all fell as snow.....

[frank 638]

Omg can u imagine if that was all snow I think we would be snowed in for 2 months lol

[SENJsnowman]

When was the last triple phase storm in this area?

Dunno about the last but according to this website and awesome retro graphic the blizzard of 1993...on what date? March 14th : )

http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/superstorm1993.gif

Check out how far into the south that system dipped. I woke up that morning to snowflakes falling in Tallahassee, Florida. Me and a few of my fellow Seminoles made the 5 hour drive north to Atlanta (which took 9 hours by the way...at least 50 cars were spun off on the shoulder of I-75), where they had what seemed like a foot of snow. We played football in the snow for about 30 minutes, went to Waffle House for coffee/hot cocoa, and then drove back to Tally (only took 7 hours to get back).

The 1993 Superstorm- Deep in the Heart of Dixie!

[Math23x7]

I first started tracking potential long range snowstorms on models (particularly 120+ hours out) in November 2011. There have been many, many instances of 18"+ snow events for NYC, so many I have lost count of them. How many of them actually happened? One. January 23rd, 2016, which gave Bellerose 25" of snow. So all but one of them were either non-events or ended up giving us much less snow (i.e. 3-6"). Why should next Tuesday be any different? I mean this storm could hypothetically go out to sea, or move inland giving us rain, or miss the phase, or put us in a dry slot or feature temperatures above freezing.

Once this gets into short range, then I can get excited. But for now, it's just another fantasy storm.

[jmanley32]

I first started tracking potential long range snowstorms on models (particularly 120+ hours out) in November 2011.  There have been many, many instances of 18"+ snow events for NYC, so many I have lost count of them.  How many of them actually happened? One.  January 23rd, 2016, which gave Bellerose 25" of snow.  So all but one of them were either non-events or ended up giving us much less snow (i.e. 3-6").  Why should next Tuesday be any different?  I mean this storm could hypothetically go out to sea, or move inland giving us rain, or miss the phase, or put us in a dry slot or feature temperatures above freezing.  

Once this gets into short range, then I can get excited.  But for now, it's just another fantasy storm.

Booooo LOL, I honestly recall more than one storm since 2011 giving more than 18 inches. This is not in fantasyland per frank (though it isn't SR either), be more optimistic, but yes there have been many storms that have not panned out but many that have thats only a 5 year span, your the statistics guru, why not look at a 50 year anyalysis we have had a lot of triple phased storms, not talking amounts.

[frank 638]

the day of the superstorm of 93 i got about 13 inces of snow then we got a wind driven sleet storm that lasted for hours my parents thought our windows would break because of the sleet .i think we had about 4 inches of sleet or lees before changing back to snow .i would never forget how strong that storm was we went from a blizzard to a wind driven sleet to calm to snow

[Dtone]

Anyone see the damage from strong winds upstate and in the great lakes region? Incredible stuff, not t- storm related. A sunny day with strong TS to hurricane force winds.
81 mph in Rochester.

[Dunnzoo]

Winds picking up here in the last hour, had some pretty good gusts...

[jmanley32]

Anyone see the damage from strong winds upstate and in the great lakes region?  Incredible stuff, not t- storm related. A sunny day with strong TS to hurricane force winds.
81 mph in Rochester.

Yes my wife has friends up there rit college closed which doesn't even happen for snow. The hww said gusts to 60mph. Another swing and a miss on underestimating winds. The damage is so bad I heard they are calling it the wind storm of the decade.

[jmanley32]

Winds picking up here in the last hour, had some pretty good gusts...

yeah I just posted that in obs. It came outta nowhere. What were those winds upstate caused from?

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