BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

CMC gives the coast around a foot

Ukie shifted way east and goes over the benchmark

GFS is alone right now

The fact that the models are all showing a significant storm close to or at the BM is all we need right now. The track will be determined by Sunday, so we wait. Take a break, sleep in tomorrow and check in for the 12zs. The storm isn't going anywhere!

I know this is OT but wow, how can I get a trip up there!!

https://twitter.com/MWObs/status/839997489939927041

My friends. You gotta sniff the rain to get the heaviest snow sometimes. Anyone in NYC metro should be VERY encouraged so far with the 00z suite.

I looked at the 0Z GFS where the jackpot zone is (in this particular run, SEPA) and noticed that the precip there lasts for only about 16 hours. Contrast that to the January 2016 where it snow for 28 straight hours here. It does not like it slows down. The only way to really get the goods is to get the very heavy snow (i.e. 1/26/11) over us when it bombs out.

When the RGEM comes into range, then I can determine whether or not to sound the alarm.

PS: I've asked this question earlier this week and I'll ask again, Tom ( NjWeatherGuy ), where are you???

Snow88 wrote:

thats beautiful, too bad they do not have a snow map, that I know of anyways.

Snow88 wrote:

woah, snow map?

jmanley32 wrote:

Snow88 wrote:

thats beautiful, too bad they do not have a snow map, that I know of anyways.

Yes it is. Takes a track from the Virginia Capes to the Delmarva then just SE of Cape Cod. Roidzilla amounts I would think.

Just saw the members. They are around the mean.

Op is an outlier

anyone gonna post euro later? if not im hit the hay.

OMG EURO


https://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/ecmwf/current/00z/ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f93.png

0z EURO is a true crush job, what a freaking run. The H5 was similar to 12z, except it closed off just a tick NW of where it was at 12z PLUS stronger PVA. Demolished the I-95

00z EURO is SNOWMEGGEDON for the entire board.

All-out blizzard.

The 0Z EURO OP looked great, but we have to remember that since this is a Miller B setup, the model will not be the most reliable. The February 2013 "Nemo" storm and the January 2015 "Juno" storm were both Miller B's and the EURO went ka-boom, showing NYC under historic snow totals. But in both instances, the low was further east than expected.

As has been stated before by docstox12, Miller Bs are not something to get excited about at this stage. The rule of thumb is they favor New England. You need it to phase at just the right point or it misses us to the east. The February 1969 snowstorm (also Miller B) had the big band of snow right over the Queens/Nassau county border. Until I see the RGEM come into to range (the model which I think did the best job with "Juno"), I will not feel comfortable making a snow call.

Actually its 20 + for the NYC area

Math23x7 wrote:The 0Z EURO OP looked great, but we have to remember that since this is a Miller B setup, the model will not be the most reliable.  The February 2013 "Nemo" storm and the January 2015 "Juno" storm were both Miller B's and the EURO went ka-boom, showing NYC under historic snow totals.  But in both instances, the low was further east than expected.

As has been stated before by docstox12, Miller Bs are not something to get excited about at this stage.  The rule of thumb is they favor New England.  You need it to phase at just the right point or it misses us to the east.  The February 1969 snowstorm (also Miller B) had the big band of snow right over the Queens/Nassau county border.  Until I see the RGEM come into to range (the model which I think did the best job with "Juno"), I will not feel comfortable making a snow call.

Indeed, but this is a different beast we're talking about. It's more of a Miller A/B hybrid since you have the polar entity amplifying the flow and partially phasing with southern max within long wave trough. Another thing to consider is, with a ridge building out west as such, the shortwave just has to dig a sufficient amount verbatim the EURO or even the GFS in this case, and its a storm forming along a stalled boundary off the SE coast and the rest is history.

Uhhh wow.

Almost all euro ensemble members are snow bonbs. Never seen that before. We're looking at a historic event.

Gfs is still the outlier with the low tucked into the coast.

Out of fhe euro suite, it only has 2 tucked in members. So clearly one of these models will end up very wrong.

Euro ensemble snow map. THIS IS A MEAN

850mb winds = BLIZZARD