BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

Euro ensemble snow map. THIS IS A MEAN

850mb winds = BLIZZARD

Looks like gfs ensembles are east of the OP. I will say at the 500mb level it looks like euro trended to the GFS. A low inside the BM seems to be a definite possibility but there remain great uncertainty. If it does track inside the BM, someone will see rain unfortunately but it will be one heck of a storm. Dynamics should change everyone back to snow. But we're not there yet. Let's see what later today brings.

UKMET is BM track

925mb winds...over a 24 hour period these type of winds are dangerous

Agree with this

Frank_Wx wrote:Agree with this

Ah! A weather map from my home state of New Hampshire!

I can't get over the Euro ENS.

What about this storm differs from other storms. Its very rare or never that there appears to be so much confidence in a storm so far out. I hope everyone is right. I do not like disappointment.

I hate to do this because fortunately it seems overpreparation but not this time. I have gas in for the generator, food and beer and milk in, extra batteries, back up internet, a snow rake, plenty of firewood up on the deck, and outside gear ready. The plow guy is high-fived. The new weather station is installed and working. Dog is a snow lover. And the models are showing a favoring of the off the East coast track. This is one that will be noteworthy.

Does anybody have the Euro snow map for the New England region?

Great EORO run last night! And happy to see the 6Z GFS follow suite!! Under 72 hours now till the event!!

Thanks, Radz. Let's just lock this in and be done with it. I'm not sure how much more of this my heart can take.

TheAresian wrote:Thanks, Radz. Let's just lock this in and be done with it. I'm not sure how much more of this my heart can take.

Even with all the model runs merging on a consensus, it'll still be now casting till the very end with the R/S line so close in proximity. Won't truly be over oil its over unfortunately, but I like the odds at this point!!

Euro

Thanks for posting the map Radz...the Euro is calling for robust totals along the coast...any idea why this map is giving GFS-like amounts for the whole coastline?

15 inches at 10 to 1!!! With local temps not expected to break mid to upper 20s, this could be even bigger!!!!!

Senj look at the map skins just posted. He is the go to guy for the jersey shore. The map he posted looks great

Also the GFS run this morning has caved to the Euro and is more east.

SENJsnowman wrote:Thanks for posting the map Radz...the Euro is calling for robust totals along the coast...any idea why this map is giving GFS-like amounts for the whole coastline?

Assuming it takes mixing at the coast into consideration...

TheAresian wrote:15 inches at 10 to 1!!! With local temps not expected to break mid to upper 20s, this could be even bigger!!!!!

I'm guessing a pretty heavy wet snow fall especially near the coast, i'm keeping my expectations conservative on ratios and hoping we over perform!

I've said it before and I'll repeat. The thing I worry about most is a last minute trend taking the storm too far off the coast, not it hugging the coast and mixing issues. Why? Just from my experience, and rules are made to be broken, but 1. When models are wrong for coastal systems they seem to jog EAST of initially projected path more than west; 2. I can count on one hand the times I've seen a Low Pressure center track right into NJ as opposed to offshore (maybe two hands - still rare). They want to stay offshore over water it seems; 3. Even if it really hugs the coast and sleet and rain mix in, it still starts and ends as snow in my estimation and I still think we get a foot even with mixing (1993 had major mixing issues and most areas got at least a foot). My nightmare is OTS we get flurries/ or an accelerated storm that ends in 10 hours cutting totals in half - not the "too close to the coast issue. If I'm wrong so be it.

Anyone have the snow map for the 6z GFS?

I live way inland, a couple hundred miles west-northwest of the rest of the board. Your temps are anywhere from 4 to 8 degrees warmer than mine during the storm.