March 14th Godzilla Discussion Part 2

skinsfan1177 wrote:No one should be worry

Speak for yourself. This will be me at the start of the 00z runs tonight.

skinsfan1177 wrote:No one should be worry

I'm think that's conservative and achievable atm. But honestly we have not seen the final solution yet but I expect bigger amounts here. We will smell the rain and get the big snow

track17 wrote:Skins do you think we have a shot at 6-8 at the coast that would be great if we could get that much?

Yes I just replied but it did something weird lol

Awesome when it comes to the jersey shore weather your the go to.

I do not wish anyone to go cold and the winds are go be confined mostly to the coast, I do not think you have much to worry. mugs a fetish? just as much nas you all and snow, so you have to get it cuz its the same thing, just different version plus i love snow just as much if not more, pair them together in happier than a little kid in a candy shop.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:No one should be worry

Speak for yourself. This will be me at the start of the 00z runs tonight.

opening the wine now... it'll help

https://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwacapget.php?x=NY1258443BFBD8.BlizzardWatch.125844768500NY.OKXWSWOKX.85780d544df0807f6d0cb244f0757869&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

JMA is a thing of beauty:

All snow?

Also, Frank mentioned that it would be better if H5 closed off, is that happening on any of the more recent runs?

I'm partial to the SREF precip map:

Wow even at 10:1 that's like 25" for me!!

Jesus both of those maps have nearly 30 inches for me if it's all snow wow!!! I had a feeling SR models would bring higher snow totals, if the sref map thats posted above verified it would be a becs 3.0+ qpf nyc holy crap.

Interesting perspective/compilation of the NWS offices on their intitial accumulation thoughts (shout-out to @crankyweatherguy for posting!)

SoulSingMG wrote:Interesting perspective/compilation of the NWS offices on their intitial accumulation thoughts (shout-out to @crankyweatherguy for posting!)

thing after seeing JMA sref and if other models serve too these could go up?

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Interesting perspective/compilation of the NWS offices on their intitial accumulation thoughts (shout-out to @crankyweatherguy for posting!)

thing after seeing JMA sref and if other models serve too these could go up?

I think we are safely in solid Godzilla territory. If 00z suite continues to show a more progressive flow and crappier phase than now, it could go down to be honest. We'll see!

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Interesting perspective/compilation of the NWS offices on their intitial accumulation thoughts (shout-out to @crankyweatherguy for posting!)

thing after seeing JMA sref and if other models serve too these could go up?

I think we are safely in solid Godzilla territory. If 00z suite continues to show a more progressive flow and crappier phase than now, it could go down to be honest. We'll see!

But look at those qpf maps above, some are showing crazy amts still.

1st upton briefing

http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Blizzard_Briefing_0311_4pm_external.pdf

so, most lows have heavy precip to the east of the low....why do these show heaviest to the east? Doesn;t make sense and this will be cleared up by tomorrows short range runs.

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Interesting perspective/compilation of the NWS offices on their intitial accumulation thoughts (shout-out to @crankyweatherguy for posting!)

thing after seeing JMA sref and if other models serve too these could go up?

Not for the Jersey Shore. Mt. Holly refuses to forecast any more than 4 inches for coastal Ocean County. They've done it once in 4 years, Jan 2015 when they forecast 18-24", and it busted. They will not be made fools of again! If all the other indicators for a good storm are there, I usually apply a mulitplier of 2x or 3x to whatever their predicted totals are...so now we're sitting pretty at about the 1' mark.

SENJsnowman wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Interesting perspective/compilation of the NWS offices on their intitial accumulation thoughts (shout-out to @crankyweatherguy for posting!)

thing after seeing JMA sref and if other models serve too these could go up?

Not for the Jersey Shore. Mt. Holly refuses to forecast any more than 4 inches for coastal Ocean County. They've done it once in 4 years, Jan 2015 when they forecast 18-24", and it busted. They will not be made fools of again! If all the other indicators for a good storm are there, I usually apply a mulitplier of 2x or 3x to whatever their predicted totals are...so now we're sitting pretty at about the 1' mark.

oh i was talk up here where im full in 12-18. jersey shore is dicey.

Srefs show Roidzilla

jmanley32 wrote: oh i was talk up here where im full in 12-18. jersey shore is dicey.

So, the one thing that I'm leaning on right now is that is the exact, I mean EXACT, same type of 'dicey' the Shore had for Juno last year. Even as I went to bed on that Friday night with the snow just raging, I was told to expect a changeover to rain at about 8-9 am the next day. It never happened...we had about 30 min of sleet was all...and then 3 hours of dry slotting! LOL! So, while we could have gotten 20-24", we 'settled for' 17-18". As of now, I'm fairly confident that we have as much chance to jackpot as we do to mix...I'm more concerned with whether the other bigger peices hold together.

devsman wrote:so, most lows have heavy precip to the east of the low....why do these show heaviest to the east? Doesn;t make sense and this will be cleared up by tomorrows short range runs.

Unless there is an area of subsidence between the upper level low and the surface low, i remember something like that happening with sharp cutoffs north and west with previous storms...

Frank_Wx wrote:Srefs show Roidzilla

Frank, is there a QPF total with that?

I'm seeing other sites showing 4 inches for eastern Monmouth county. Is that correct ?

syosnow94 wrote:

Actually this is us right now..

Which insert is that?