March 18th-19th Possible IVT Snow Event

algae888 wrote:All of the Nam models show three to six inches of snow for the tri-state area with the 3K and am being the most bullish of six to 10. The heaviest precip comes late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning
Edit the 3K NAM actually stalls the system east of Long Island and it snows till Midday Sunday 8 - 14 inches especially for Long Island

What!? No way

Rgem is 3 to 5 inches of snow for the area surprisingly Long Island is not in that I think that's wrong

Frank, I was actually thinking last night what I would put as my snow map. This is actually pretty close to my thinking, I actually like it.

On a side note, how would it feel if the norlun trough set up over Cranford this weekend while you were in Dallas where it is set to get in the low 80s this weekend? I can only imagine the pain CP would feel if during the winter if he had to make a trip down south and during it, Orange County experienced a Frankzilla.

If all the heaviest precip falls during the day on Saturday,  I would not count on more than 1-2 in of mostly slush.  The sun is nearing the equator on its trip back north and it is fairly strong right now.  Hilly areas of NW NJ and the lower Hudson Valley might see 2 to 4 in. Surface temps are marginal at best during the day on sat with above freezing temps across NY Metro and LI.

docstox12 wrote:

Math23x7 wrote:Frank, I was actually thinking last night what I would put as my snow map.  This is actually pretty close to my thinking, I actually like it.

On a side note, how would it feel if the norlun trough set up over Cranford this weekend while you were in Dallas where it is set to get in the low 80s this weekend?  I can only imagine the pain CP would feel if during the winter if he had to make a trip down south and during it, Orange County experienced a Frankzilla.

Looking like an interesting snow event for tomorrow shaping up! NWS still saying 3 to 6 for me so rb and Frank are spot on with their maps.Hope the NJ Shore and LI gang gets blasted with this.Mike, if that happened to CP he would be in the OTI Sanitarium at least one year,LOL.

Thank Docs but I'm not expecting much here than plain rain temps are marginal for me

Rgem days HELLO

Wow this is looking very interestimg. Been very busy and will b so but I'll keep check back in. Won't the snow already on the ground allow it to accumulate despite warmer surface temps?

docstox12 wrote:Hope the NJ Shore and LI gang gets blasted with this.

Appreciate the thought Doc, but the Shore especially is forecast to be WAY over temp for this. Oh well...there's always next winter!

joe cioffi has nyc and long island for 3 to 6 inches and west of nyc to northern nj will see 2 to 4 inches

frank 638 wrote:joe cioffi has nyc and long island for 3 to 6 inches and west of nyc to northern nj will see 2 to 4 inches

That's a s good a guess as any. I'm doubtful the city sees that much with temps marginal for the event but I'm hoping they get it.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

frank 638 wrote:joe cioffi has nyc and long island for 3 to 6 inches and west of nyc to northern nj will see 2 to 4 inches

That's a s good a guess as any. I'm doubtful the city sees that much with temps marginal for the event but I'm hoping they get it.

In NYC, we won't get the snow even if we get the snow. Why? Conservancy.

Whats going on with the Euro, seems to be delayed.

SREFs not as impressive as before for this weekend...

Sussex-Warren-Morris-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem,
and Easton
346 PM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM
EDT SUNDAY...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for a wintry mix of precipitation, which is in
effect from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday.

* LOCATIONS...Berks County, the southern Poconos, the Lehigh
Valley, and adjacent northwest New Jersey.

* HAZARD TYPES...Snow and light freezing rain.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches, along with
around a trace to a tenth of an inch of ice. The highest
accumulations of snow and ice are expected in the higher
elevations.

KING NAM about to obliterate NYC

aiannone wrote:KING NAM about to obliterate NYC

No way. You have maps?

Lee thinks most of LI gets 4+

aiannone wrote:

wow that's gotta b 6?

Oh boy NAM and PARA dropping da hammer here can u say SECS??. At a STEM competition all day and now hacing a St. Padds party with 20 plus so not on Al lot at all tonight. 

Well the NAM is the KING. This would be fun. Extend the snow pack into April.

Woot woot

Wow nam runs give me 6 to 10nwha!

There is a 500mb lp imbeded into the broader 500mb lp, rare burst so has this winter been right??

amugs wrote:Oh boy NAM and PARA dropping da hammer here can u say SECS??. At a STEM competition all day and now hacing a St. Padds party with 20 plus so not on Al lot at all tonight. 

little margin for error there especially still 24 hours out but this would be hysterical for NYC if it verified. It would top the blizzard for them.