Tracking Hurricane Irma

It runs in an hour right

If this was a snowstorm, I'd wait up for the Euro. However, seeing as I'm in no hurry to see which part of the east coast ends up having their world ruined, I'm going to call it a night. See you later all.

Well, the 0Z ECMWF has Irma making landfall in the Carolinas as a strong hurricane then goes due north. However, there are two things that should be pointed out:

1) It trended slightly closer to Puerto Rico. If it goes through PR, it will disrupt the development of Irma to say the least.

2) I need to see the EURO ensemble guidance. That tells the full story. I will not be staying up for that so I'll find out later this morning.

Night all.

EPS is mixed

Long way to go

ENS don't tell the full story the PAC set up and Western Europe set ups downstream effete will tell the story on what happens. 
Remember tjis hcanes that strike up here don't like heat ridges and cool patterns.
Lots of time to go here. 
Model mayhem continues.

Morning update:  For the very first time I have seen some semblance of a consensus begining to form over night.  For the first time I have seen what appears to be some general agreement with the H5 set up between both GFS and Euro Ops as well as their respective ensemble means all showing a similar H5 set up.  Let me explain.    

First off the track of Irma is getting very consistent between days 3-6.  There is still time for fluctuations however, but look at the side by side comparisons regarding Irma as she approaches the Northern Lesser Antilles.  The trend on the GFS has slowly been to shift the track closer and closer to the N Islands.  The euro is only a facrtion faster and further S and W then the GFS but not by much.  It looks more and more likely that they will be impacted with at least trop storm force winds; however, a shift in the track north or south by as little as 50miles or so could be the difference between a significant impact vs minor to no impact.  If you know anyone in this region please tell them to prepare now.  I lived on the Island of St Kitts for a little over 2 yrs so I have particular concern for that little rock as they look to be impacted by Irma's in some fashion at this time.  Any shift south in the track and those impacts could be significant.     




Looking out a little further, fast forward to 00z Saturday.  You can see by the side by side both models have Irmas center in close proximity of one another in or just north of the Bahamas.  While the euro has been pretty consistent with a track near here, the GFS as little as yesterdays 6z, 12z and 18z Had Irma MUCH farther N by this time frame:



BUT overnight 00z and this mornings 06z have significantly shifted the center south towards the euro soln.  We will see if today this holds serve as this will be very important for reasons explained in image above and images below.   I used a yellow dot to show you where the other models respective center is so you can see that just as with the Northern Lesser Antilles a shift of the track by as little as 25-50miles N or S could have HUGE impacts on the Bahaman islands as well.  
 


Now lets zoom out a bit.  Remaining at 00z Sat or day 6, you can see a lot is going on on the maps below.  Here are the key points that I found to be common amongst both GFS and Euro Ops as well as their respective ensemble means as of last nights 0z runs.  Let me be very clear here.  I do not believe we have seen the final soln at both H5 or the surface so be patient.
 
It appears that the main trough lifts into the Mid Atlantic/NE and cuts off from the main flow and develops as an ULL.  At the same time as this is happening notice there is additional energy hanging back over the N plains states indicated by the circle with the black X in it and an anomalous ridge building over top in central Canada.  The ULL in the NE is a trough split, but instead of backing up W and forcing Irma in between it and the WAR like the GFS showed a day or two ago......................:



..............Irma misses this particular connection  like the 06 z images from yesterday indicated, as it is now modeled much further south at this time frame.






As we move forward in time there is an anomalous Ridge in central Canada that comes over the top of the energy I have labeled X forcing it south East.  This is called a wave break when a ridge comes over the top of a trough like this, and is a particularly complex situation for models to get right esp in the long term.  But in essence what this wave break does is kicks the ULL out and force the energy X SE such that a ridge bridge wants to form between the WAR and the ridge over Canada.  This traps Irma from escaping OTS. Its then the energy labeled X that eventually captures Irma and pulls it into the coast.



Keep in mind everything above is as is depicted in the modeling over night and may and likely will cont to evolve some, but its the first time I have seen decent agreement.  I want to see how today and tonight's models runs go before I lock in the general set up.  Once that's locked in then the details of where the landfall cone will be can be worked on.  

Track Fla into GOM= 5%
Track OTS = 10%
Track central Fla to OBX = 50%
Track OBX to S NE = 35%

6z gfs holds that theory Scott. Heads right into SC/NC and plows through to Ohio Valley.. OBX will be gone at that strength...

What's OBX?

jake732 wrote:What's OBX?

Outer Banks

If and I mean if a NC landfall occurs, we will have to watch where Irma goes from there. GFS continues to move her NW essentially leaving our area with little impact. The EURO on the other hand brings her more northbound giving us more significant impacts. Of course a landfall further north and we would be in world of hurt.

sroc4 wrote:

jake732 wrote:What's OBX?

Outer Banks

My good neighbors are in the process of selling their home. They made plans to rent a house down in the outer banks of NC on September 9th to look for homes. I told them yesterday to keep tabs on the latest forecast. The overnight model runs are not encouraging. Talk about bad timing.

How will the recon numbers that they collect today affect the predictions....is that a silly question? And will they be in tonight's models

nutleyblizzard wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

jake732 wrote:What's OBX?

Outer Banks

My good neighbors are in the process of selling their home. They made plans to rent a house down in the outer banks of NC on September 9th to look for homes. I told them yesterday to keep tabs on the latest forecast. The overnight model runs are not encouraging. Talk about bad timing.

I have ties to Beaufort (bouge sound)area and that's where my parents are buying a house...

I am still hoping for an OTS solution.As much as I hate to see any area of the USA impacted by this storm, I am glad the trend is to keep the worst impacts to the south of us.I realize its still very early, but it is encouraging for our area.

Yes Doc OTS would be nice! Don't need this anywhere after what Houston went through.

docstox12 wrote:I am still hoping for an OTS solution.As much as I hate to see any area of the USA impacted by this storm, I am glad the trend is to keep the worst impacts to the south of us.I realize its still very early, but it is encouraging for our area.

If it makes any difference, I will be prepared for the worst, which means there is a good chance that this storm will go out to sea! If its anything like snow, when I get the snow blower ready, we get nothing, so I am going to go all out for this one!

Actually wouldn't mind some hurricane action here. Obviously without the injuries and distructuction

I disagree jake it is good to know we are in the clear with these trends.

Would like to see gfs come north

But wouldn't be surprised if it heads even a bit more south

12z GFs is running now. This is why model runs are almost pointless. Through hour 24, look at the difference between the 06z and 12z GFS with Irma. She's much further north on the 12z run. That could have big implications in future frames. Models can't even agree on her location 24 hours from now let alone 9 days from now.

track17 wrote:I disagree jake it is good to know we are in the clear with these trends.

Track you can not make this statement at this time - many ENS members show crushing blows into our area. I am not rooting for this but OP models are to much in a state of flux and will be. We need better sampling of the PAC energy and the NA block that is going to form. Euro has its biases moving the ULL out too fast while it breaks down the WAR fast as well and GFS speeds things up and SE bias of coastals.

When I look ta the pattern and I see a mod typhoon recurving into the GOA, where this set ups is crucial to what happens downstream, I don't give a rats behind what people wish for or want it's just what will drive the pattern. If it sets up correctly it will pump the PNA and NA Block where the ULL cuts off and gets trapped underneath. We have a Scandinavian block with a big ULL over western Europe that is blocking that side of the world up. This is not a microcosmic type of set up here but a global one that is VERY CONCERNING to me.

Isotherm posted on another board and has been adamant from a week ago. Landfall %

45% chance of North Carolina landfall; 15% chance of South Carolina landfall; and, 25% chance of a Virginia northward landfall

Say goodbye to the bahamas for years if this run plays out lol

A 1 in 4 chance of a storm of that magnitude being that close? I know it's a long way out, but it's hard not to feel a little chill run down the spine.

aiannone wrote:Say goodbye to the bahamas for years if this run plays out lol

Alex they are under the gun no matter what IMO.

amugs wrote:

aiannone wrote:Say goodbye to the bahamas for years if this run plays out lol

Alex they are under the gun no matter what IMO.

Agreed, they will have some impacts regardless of what model wins out. It's just whether it's severe damage or complete destruction from a direct hit.

Looking at the position of the ridge, this is going into NC this run IMO.