Tracking Hurricane Irma

Thanks for sharing Joanne. Looks like tonight's 00z runs will work with extra recon.

I'm increasing the threat of seeing impact from Irma from 10% to 20%. Out to sea is still on the table but looks less likely as of now. Too much high latitude blocking.

12z euro looks like fl hit Andrew track yikes. Does it turn north?

Turned north just in time to miss direct florida impact wow

Looks like Irma has a little tag along a day or two behind.

I think GFS and euro 12z suites throw out both initialized to far south

Euro getting tugged north by upper level low to its northeast. Landfall will be farther north if it doesn't go OTS first.

Here comes the EURO. Lets see if she goes out to sea or hooks west

OMG euro misses Carolinas headed up here!!

jmanley32 wrote:OMG euro misses Carolinas headed up here!!

are you kidding?

Wow ots scarily close. What merit does ots have?

weatherwatchermom wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:OMG euro misses Carolinas headed up here!!

are you kidding?

Nope. Irma makes hard right OTS. Where the hell did that upper level low come from???

Euro is lost.

Euro last 3 runs, OTS - landfall in Carolinas - OTS again. Meanwhile GFS locked in on SE US/Mid-atlantic landfall.

There are remarkable changes aloft this EURO run compared to 00z. On the 12z run, the upper level trough cuts off over New England and hangs around in Nova Scotia while the High Pressure stays over the Great Lakes. The trough in the Northwest Atlantic changes the steering flow and allows Irma to make the turn out to sea. On the 00z run, this trough lifted out faster allowing the block to build over the Northeast and keep Irma on a trajectory toward the East Coast. It looks like this EURO run also slowed Irma down. Drastic changes continue run to run. Long way to go.

Frank_Wx wrote:There are remarkable changes aloft this EURO run compared to 00z. On the 12z run, the upper level trough cuts off over New England and hangs around in Nova Scotia while the High Pressure stays over the Great Lakes. The trough in the Northwest Atlantic changes the steering flow and allows Irma to make the turn out to sea. On the 00z run, this trough lifted out faster allowing the block to build over the Northeast and keep Irma on a trajectory toward the East Coast. It looks like this EURO run also slowed Irma down. Drastic changes continue run to run. Long way to go.

VEEEEERY long...

Very eager to see the latest EPS run. Then again who am I kidding the individuals will probably be all over the place anyway.

nutleyblizzard wrote:Very eager to see the latest EPS run. Then again who am I kidding the individuals will probably be all over the place anyway.

lol probably I hope by Tues or wed we start to see some consistency smound the 3 major models but who knows. I have a feeling the exact spot isn't go have a lot time. Also feel ots is unlikely but not impossible as we saw twice on euro. When does eps come out?

jmanley32 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:Very eager to see the latest EPS run. Then again who am I kidding the individuals will probably be all over the place anyway.

lol probably I hope by Tues or wed we start to see some consistency smound the 3 major models but who knows. I have a feeling the exact spot isn't go have a lot time. Also feel ots is unlikely but not impossible as we saw twice on euro. When does eps come out?

EURO is lost right now. Too many wild swings with solutions. A respected poster from another board said that the Euro is too strong with the closed low and expect the EPS to be west of the op. I believe they come out at 5pm.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:Very eager to see the latest EPS run. Then again who am I kidding the individuals will probably be all over the place anyway.

lol probably I hope by Tues or wed we start to see some consistency smound the 3 major models but who knows. I have a feeling the exact spot isn't go have a lot time. Also feel ots is unlikely but not impossible as we saw twice on euro. When does eps come out?

EURO is lost right now. Too many wild swings with solutions. A respected poster from another board said that the Euro is too strong with the closed low and expect the EPS to be west of the op. I believe they come out at 5pm.

not good for us if true.

Timing seems to be the real issue here. How fast does Irma move. That will take a few days to nail down. Honestly all we can say is FL to ME needs to watch. At this point, idt it's safe to say who is safe and who is in for it besides the Bahamas lol

EPS lol

A compromise between the EURO )barely OTS) and the GFS (n Carolina) put us right in the bullseye. Me likey

aiannone wrote:

We still very much in play, thats bad right there. I know its the control but still, alex how many individuals show a hit or near direct hit on area?

jmanley32 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:Very eager to see the latest EPS run. Then again who am I kidding the individuals will probably be all over the place anyway.

lol probably I hope by Tues or wed we start to see some consistency smound the 3 major models but who knows. I have a feeling the exact spot isn't go have a lot time. Also feel ots is unlikely but not impossible as we saw twice on euro. When does eps come out?

you know jman..I agree with you on not having a lot of time..what happens if this makes landfall in a highly populated area? and there are only a couple of days to prepare..how do you get everyone out and where do they go. .listen..they say you should always be hurricane or emergency weather ready..and in this house we are...but there is a difference of being ready for a bad storm and a possible Cat 3-4 or 5 headed your way..and that is for anyone that gets this storm...so it worries me..as it does all of you on this board...uncertain times for all of us.

syosnow94 wrote:A compromise between the EURO )barely OTS) and the GFS (n Carolina) put us right in the bullseye.  Me likey

Oh syo we so sick, lol, but att we still dont know.