Tracking Hurricane Irma

Euro is 1600 miles apart from last run imo its step toward the GFS in the upper air setup

Frank_Wx wrote:Euro is out to sea but the capture from the trough wasn't far off. We're yet to see any consistency as expected.

Tx back to waiting for that back to school haircut

EURO finds a weakness in the ridge. It misses our area, but it clips cape cod and looks destined for eastern Maine at the end of the run. To recap, EURO looked more in line with the GFS as far as upper levels are concerned. That's a big ominous red flag in my book.

nutleyblizzard wrote:EURO finds a weakness in the ridge. It misses our area, but it clips cape cod and looks destined for eastern Maine at the end of the run. To recap, EURO looked more in line with the GFS as far as upper levels are concerned. That's a big ominous red flag in my book.

Toytally agree, seems like we can take away  ATM that Irma is going to turn north very close the the US and its either going to get tugged back (like most but the Euro show) or come very close.  IMO I have a bad feeling the gfs may have been right and a landfall in the midatlantic to cape code is going to be the outcome but its too early and I guess even OTS is still a possibility but IMB I think diminishing.

You may remember 2015's Hurricane Joaquin. Model guidance had it striking the US the first weekend in October. Six days out, just about all the models, including the ECMWF had just that. But right after that, the ECMWF shifted to an out to sea solution and it never looked back. The other models still had it striking the US for the next two days. Finally, they all caved and it went out to sea, which the ECMWF saw before any of the other models. This afternoon could be that moment as the ECMWF shows what is apparently an OTS solution. Of course, I would love to see this afternoon's run go out one more day as I wonder about that interaction with the trough but perhaps the EPS could help us out. Last night's ensemble was OTS, perhaps this one will be as well. We'll find out soon enough.

Latest Euro ensembles. No agreement whatsoever

Frank_Wx wrote:Latest Euro ensembles. No agreement whatsoever

Still a lot of OTS solutions. Until I see more EPS members (and the ECMWF) get on board, I will remain skeptical.

Frank_Wx wrote:Latest Euro ensembles. No agreement whatsoever

It's west of the 12z EURO OP.

I hope it goes out to sea... Hopefully once they start sending the recon plane in, we can get some better idea on where it will go.

While Irma may not necessarily make a direct hit on the US (still need to monitor it), I thought I would throw this out there:

Here is CPC's 6-10 day temperature outlook from October 21st, 2012, eight days before Sandy hit:



Here is CPC's 6-10 day temperature outlook from today:

mikeypizano wrote:I hope it goes out to sea... Hopefully once they start sending the recon plane in, we can get some better idea on where it will go.

That will only help a little. What we NEED is information from the Pacific, and we ain't gonna get that until the energies are over/nearer the CONUS. Not gonna lie, I'm becoming more disconcerted about what I've seen on the surface maps over the last 36 hours. Haven't done any analysis and won't until probably Monday :/

rb924119 wrote:

mikeypizano wrote:I hope it goes out to sea... Hopefully once they start sending the recon plane in, we can get some better idea on where it will go.

That will only help a little. What we NEED is information from the Pacific, and we ain't gonna get that until the energies are over/nearer the CONUS. Not gonna lie, I'm becoming more disconcerted about what I've seen on the surface maps over the last 36 hours. Haven't done any analysis and won't until probably Monday :/

losing faith in ur original thoughts huh. I told u lol jk. Please let us know I'll b looking Monday for ya.

So the euro is good news right. I will sign up for that. Def a good sign. Thanks for your insight math

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

mikeypizano wrote:I hope it goes out to sea... Hopefully once they start sending the recon plane in, we can get some better idea on where it will go.

That will only help a little. What we NEED is information from the Pacific, and we ain't gonna get that until the energies are over/nearer the CONUS. Not gonna lie, I'm becoming more disconcerted about what I've seen on the surface maps over the last 36 hours. Haven't done any analysis and won't until probably Monday :/

losing faith in ur original thoughts huh. I told u lol jk. Please let us know I'll b looking Monday for ya.

To say that there are a few cracks in my dam weeping water I think might be a fairly large understatement from the little I've been able to follow aha

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

mikeypizano wrote:I hope it goes out to sea... Hopefully once they start sending the recon plane in, we can get some better idea on where it will go.

That will only help a little. What we NEED is information from the Pacific, and we ain't gonna get that until the energies are over/nearer the CONUS. Not gonna lie, I'm becoming more disconcerted about what I've seen on the surface maps over the last 36 hours. Haven't done any analysis and won't until probably Monday :/

losing faith in ur original thoughts huh. I told u lol jk. Please let us know I'll b looking Monday for ya.

To say that there are a few cracks in my dam weeping water I think might be a fairly large understatement from the little I've been able to follow aha

What were your original thoughts RB? At this far off point in time it would be foolhardy to say Irma's going OTS, and likewise if its going to make US landfall. GFS is running now.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

mikeypizano wrote:I hope it goes out to sea... Hopefully once they start sending the recon plane in, we can get some better idea on where it will go.

That will only help a little. What we NEED is information from the Pacific, and we ain't gonna get that until the energies are over/nearer the CONUS. Not gonna lie, I'm becoming more disconcerted about what I've seen on the surface maps over the last 36 hours. Haven't done any analysis and won't until probably Monday :/

losing faith in ur original thoughts huh. I told u lol jk. Please let us know I'll b looking Monday for ya.

To say that there are a few cracks in my dam weeping water I think might be a fairly large understatement from the little I've been able to follow aha

What were your original thoughts RB? At this far off point in time it would be foolhardy to say Irma's going OTS, and likewise if its going to make US landfall. GFS is running now.

Posted a few days ago:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYMFlQRk5QYThhaWs

GFS certainly seems dialed in, that's for damn sure.

Gfs looking simlar to other runs stronger actually.

18z GFS basically the same at hr 144, tad slower

895 and still going. Jesus.

Down to 895mb at hr 156

Omg. Down 878mb at hr 168

I'm cursing, sorry. 882 mb!!! THATS SUPER-TYPHOON TIP!!!! IS IT EVEN POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTOC?!!!!

HAIYAN!! Holy shit.

Making the north turn now at hr 174...884mb

Pressure in the 870's has to have corresponding winds of around 200-215mph