Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

by Guest Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:04 pm

As per NHC. Tropical storm watch. Jersey coast.

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:05 pm

Nam is a bit east at hr 18 will have see if that piece energy Al spoke of brings him back west.

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:07 pm

syosnow94 wrote:As per NHC. Tropical storm watch. Jersey coast.

Coastal waters off lsnd.

by **jake732** Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:07 pm

fish fish....

by Guest Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:08 pm

Qpf for LI bumped from .5-1.5" to 3-4" island wide.

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:09 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Qpf for LI bumped from .5-1.5" to 3-4" island wide.

Where you seeing this syo? Not go take much to get that into NYC if it's all of long island.

by **rb924119** Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:11 pm

Same spot at hour 30

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:13 pm

Hey rb welcome to.your party so far this is going your wsy?!

by Guest Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:13 pm

Looking at news HPC forecast. Updating now. Day 2. 1-1.5". Day 3 1.5-4" island wide west to east.

by **rb924119** Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:15 pm

Hi-res short-range models look pretty bad; 3km NAM, and now both WRF models look like they would scrape our entire coastline with the "eye wall" winds if extrapolated, as there were considerable westward shifts at 12z. Euro did tick west, UKMET looked about the same, the NAM came west, the GFS stayed about the same, I think the CMC ticked west, the SREFs held serve, CFSV2 ticked east, GFS and CMC Ensembles are both similar to the GFS Op, and EURO Ensembles may have a slight westward lean. Did I miss anything? If so, oh well lmfaooooo

by **skinsfan1177** Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:16 pm

jake732 wrote:fish fish....

Enough with the banter jake

by **rb924119** Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:17 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Hey rb welcome to.your party so far this is going your wsy?!

Isn't my party lol and idk if it's going anybody's way yet tbh lmao heck, I don't even know if IT knows which way it's going ahahaha

by **jake732** Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:17 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
jake732 wrote:fish fish....

Enough with the banter jake

sure,boss.

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:18 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Looking at news HPC forecast. Updating now. Day 2. 1-1.5". Day 3 1.5-4" island wide west to east.

I see it even has 2 inches over my area now. I think they are buying the west shift. Let's see cone at 5

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:22 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Hey rb welcome to.your party so far this is going your wsy?!

Isn't my party lol and idk if it's going anybody's way yet tbh lmao heck, I don't even know if IT knows which way it's going ahahaha

That's kinda bad 2 days out. I mean if this shifted drastically west suddenly no one would b prepared. As of now we can handle those effects could see some scattered power issues if higher winds come about and the beaches will suffer the most.

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:23 pm

Rb is it just me or is nam stronger winds wider on left and looks to b moving somewhat nnw?

by **rb924119** Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:24 pm

15z SREFs are exactly 50-50 split between a landfall in the Delmarva/South Jersey and a Benchmark track. If that doesn't sum up this storm in a nutshell, then idk what will ahaha

by **Quietace** Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:26 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Hey rb welcome to.your party so far this is going your wsy?!

Isn't my party lol and idk if it's going anybody's way yet tbh lmao heck, I don't even know if IT knows which way it's going ahahaha
That's kinda bad 2 days out. I mean if this shifted drastically west suddenly no one would b prepared. As of now we can handle those effects could see some scattered power issues if higher winds come about and the beaches will suffer the most.

Either way this is a decaying/transitions TC that isn't that intense. Some power outages and down trees will occur, especially out on the island. Yet, the majority of the area will just see TS force winds, and mod to heavy precip. The largest issue is beach erosion, which isn't a direct impact to the majority of the population.

by **rb924119** Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:27 pm

This run doesn't have the windfiekd that 12z did, but I've noticed that with the off-hour runs, though I can't explain why. This does look a little east compared to 12z but you know my personal opinions of these runs aha

by **algae888** Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:33 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Hey rb welcome to.your party so far this is going your wsy?!

Isn't my party lol and idk if it's going anybody's way yet tbh lmao heck, I don't even know if IT knows which way it's going ahahaha
That's kinda bad 2 days out. I mean if this shifted drastically west suddenly no one would b prepared. As of now we can handle those effects could see some scattered power issues if higher winds come about and the beaches will suffer the most.

Prepared for what? Let's not hype this up. There will be no direct landfall at least that's what every model shows. If Jose takes path as currently modeled it's no different than any typical strong Nor'easter that hits our area can there be trees down and power outages in a few spots yes but let's not make a big deal about this

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:36 pm

rb924119 wrote:This run doesn't have the windfiekd that 12z did, but I've noticed that with the off-hour runs, though I can't explain why. This does look a little east compared to 12z but you know my personal opinions of these runs aha

It is east from what I see.

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:40 pm

algae888 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Hey rb welcome to.your party so far this is going your wsy?!

Isn't my party lol and idk if it's going anybody's way yet tbh lmao heck, I don't even know if IT knows which way it's going ahahaha
That's kinda bad 2 days out. I mean if this shifted drastically west suddenly no one would b prepared. As of now we can handle those effects could see some scattered power issues if higher winds come about and the beaches will suffer the most.
Prepared for what? Let's not hype this up. There will be no direct landfall at least that's what every model shows. If Jose takes path as currently modeled it's no different than any typical strong Nor'easter that hits our area can there be trees down and power outages in a few spots yes but let's not make a big deal about this

Al.please read what I wrote. I said if there was a huge shift west and no mention of landfall I know that won't be case except ukmet. I never said there would the shift be that would be issue IF there was a big jump. Then I go on to say exactly what you just did bought normal noreaster weather like. Sheesh not trying hype

by jwalsh Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:42 pm

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FENWICK ISLAND...
DELAWARE...TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY
SOUTH...AND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET...NEW YORK...TO PLYMOUTH...
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND...BLOCK ISLAND...
MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET.

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:43 pm

Also Al I'm really sorry to hear bout your damage u mentioned I meant to respond but forgot. You have a good reason to dislike these storms. And you are totally right how rare it is but nonetheless I and others do like track them and Jose is about as close as it gets so it's somewhat exciting to me anyways. But by far am looking forward to winter with you all.

by **SoulSingMG** Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:51 pm

I'm a visual kinda guy. (I also think changing my avatar to my hurricane tattoo helped up the ante ;-)

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 14 Img_6411

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:54 pm

I'm under a ts watch according to that map but nws site isn't updated.

by **Quietace** Sun Sep 17, 2017 5:02 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I'm under a ts watch according to that map but nws site isn't updated.

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 14 204706_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

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