Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

Ukie shifted west and very similiar to the GFS

GEFS is west of op

Snow88 wrote:GEFS is west of op

Uh, the 00z GFS Ensembles are one with the NAVGEM right now. UH OH

rb924119 wrote:

Snow88 wrote:GEFS is west of op

Uh, the 00z GFS Ensembles are one with the NAVGEM right now. UH OH

GEFS is right near the tip of LI
Navgem is also near the tip
CMC is on eastern LI
Ukie is near the top of LI

Very close call

Does anybody have the U.K. beyond 72 hours??

Snow88 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Snow88 wrote:GEFS is west of op

Uh, the 00z GFS Ensembles are one with the NAVGEM right now. UH OH

GEFS is right near the tip of LI
Navgem is also near the tip
CMC is on eastern LI
Ukie is near the top of LI

Very close call

The main cluster of the 00z GFS Ensemble is pretty much right in the New York Bight, which is in line with the 18z NAVGEM that landfalls in western Long Island

Oh look, 00z NAVGEM is WEST of 18z through 30. Fun.

rb924119 wrote:Oh look, 00z NAVGEM is WEST of 18z through 30. Fun.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't that model have the worst track record for tropical systems?

Ends up about 75 miles east of 18z because the ridging sets up further east.

SoulSingMG wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Oh look, 00z NAVGEM is WEST of 18z through 30. Fun.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't that model have the worst track record for tropical systems?

Yeah, I don't know the stats, but I don't think it does too well. I care, though, because it has been most consistent, and most consistent with showing a solution that resembles my thoughts most closely.

EURO holds serve.

NAM is definitely the easternmost model, which I find interesting because the SREFs (which are based on the same dynamical core as the NAM) continue to insist a coastal-hugger track, which would be bad news bears. With the trends from last night amongst most major global models, and even the fact that the hurricane models are west of it (though not as far as the globals), I would say the NAM is on its own at the moment. That is not to say it is wrong, however.

rb924119 wrote:

Snow88 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Snow88 wrote:GEFS is west of op

Uh, the 00z GFS Ensembles are one with the NAVGEM right now. UH OH

GEFS is right near the tip of LI
Navgem is also near the tip
CMC is on eastern LI
Ukie is near the top of LI

Very close call

The main cluster of the 00z GFS Ensemble is pretty much right in the New York Bight, which is in line with the 18z NAVGEM that landfalls in western Long Island

So I must have either not looked at right run or was half asleep with these comments because Snow was right with the GFS Ensemble locations. My bad.

Gm all looks like all models shifted pretty well east last nigh as did 06z gfs nhc has hard right it's so seems this may just be a non event. We will see but all the models moving east can't b ignored.

jmanley32 wrote:Gm all looks like all models shifted pretty well east last nigh as did 06z gfs nhc has hard right it's so seems this may just be a non event. We will see but all the models moving east can't b ignored.

They didn't shift east.....? UKMET came well west, as did the whole 00z suite aside from the EURO lol granted, they don't landfall in NJ, but eastern LI was the sweet spot

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Gm all looks like all models shifted pretty well east last nigh as did 06z gfs nhc has hard right it's so seems this may just be a non event. We will see but all the models moving east can't b ignored.

They didn't shift east.....? UKMET came well west, as did the whole 00z suite aside from the EURO lol granted, they don't landfall in NJ, but eastern LI was the sweet spot

thnak you for your updates..question..do you sleep? and if this does stay the course and hits eastern li....what will the affect to the jersey coast be? not sure the span of this storm?

Waves are going to be...uhh...high once Jose nears the coast

Will see any rain and wind from jose

This is the 2nd time that the models teased our area with a hurricane. You know what they say, 3 strikes out you are out.

Have to watch Maria

Snow88 wrote:This is the 2nd time that the models teased our area with a hurricane. You know what they say, 3 strikes out you are out.

Have to watch Maria

I don't think there was any tease at all. It's very rare that this area gets a direct hit from a hurricane. Jose was for the most part forecast to remain offshore with only significant impacts along the coast in the form of beach erosion, high waves, rip currents, and maybe some tropical storm wind gusts. Being on the western side of the storm I think most of the area can expect a glancing blow with a period of rain and some gusty winds.

GFS is coming in further east through 54

I think this stays offshore

hyde345 wrote:

Snow88 wrote:This is the 2nd time that the models teased our area with a hurricane. You know what they say, 3 strikes out you are out.

Have to watch Maria

I don't think there was any tease at all. It's very rare that this area gets a direct hit from a hurricane. Jose was for the most part forecast to remain offshore with only significant impacts along the coast in the form of beach erosion, high waves, rip currents, and maybe some tropical storm wind gusts. Being on the western side of the storm I think most of the area can expect a glancing blow with a period of rain and some gusty winds.

Agree. 500mb pattern supports a glancing blow rather than a direct hit.

I see no chance of this another week of tracking wasted. Lol I'll b focusing on work wish me luck!

The tropics suck. Tease after tease. Waste of weeks checking in here. Should know better and just wait for November

Surprised we closed this put so quick just from one 00z suite?

12z GEFS still a bit west of operational