Re: Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay?

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:54 pm

I'm under a ts watch according to that map but nws site isn't updated.

by **Quietace** Sun Sep 17, 2017 5:02 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I'm under a ts watch according to that map but nws site isn't updated.

Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 15 204706_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

by jwalsh Sun Sep 17, 2017 5:03 pm

Rainfall Potential Hurricane Jose - Yay or Nay? - Page 15 Img_5210

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 17, 2017 5:13 pm

Wow. I just got alert from accuwx ts watch for Yonkers NY and NYC.

by **frank 638** Sun Sep 17, 2017 5:24 pm

I am also hearing Jose is going to do a loop and could effect us again by Thursday or Friday

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 17, 2017 5:35 pm

Yeah euro does that. Weird Bronx and NYC staten island only place no ts watch odd

by **GreyBeard** Sun Sep 17, 2017 5:54 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:I'm a visual kinda guy. (I also think changing my avatar to my hurricane tattoo helped up the ante ;-)

Just a fyi, your avatar is showing up as a circle with a line thru it,with the word avatar next to it, at least on my computer. Can see everybody's but yours.

by jwalsh Sun Sep 17, 2017 5:59 pm

18z Gfs is SE

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 17, 2017 6:12 pm

jwalsh wrote:18z Gfs is SE

Honestly, I am going with Rb, the GFS is too far east. But who knows, if all models shift east tonight (I likely will not be up) then it;ll change again lol

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 17, 2017 6:18 pm

UKMET still has a crazy little loop and landfall into NJ, on its own but worth noting FWIW. Been steadfast on this.

by **aiannone** Sun Sep 17, 2017 6:44 pm

Extra recon data on Jose going into the 0z suite tonight

by **rb924119** Sun Sep 17, 2017 6:58 pm

aiannone wrote:Extra recon data on Jose going into the 0z suite tonight

Oh wow, really? That's cool. Can't wait to see the model mayhem that results from that now Ahahahahaha next thing we know Jose gonna go see Santa Claus up in the Arctic ahahahaha

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 17, 2017 7:16 pm

Oh man...I am gonna have stay up for NAM, and GFS at least lol

by **skinsfan1177** Sun Sep 17, 2017 7:16 pm

I'm concerned about storm surge here along the coast Point Pleasant Beach isn't above sea level by much. I will be taking pictures to share

by **rb924119** Sun Sep 17, 2017 7:20 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm concerned about storm surge here along the coast Point Pleasant Beach isn't above sea level by much. I will be taking pictures to share

Yeah, coastal flooding is definitely gonna be an issue, especially if it ends up taking a closer track. We'll see, though; at this point it's still up in the air (pun intended) lol

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 17, 2017 7:24 pm

rb924119 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm concerned about storm surge here along the coast Point Pleasant Beach isn't above sea level by much. I will be taking pictures to share

Yeah, coastal flooding is definitely gonna be an issue, especially if it ends up taking a closer track. We'll see, though; at this point it's still up in the air (pun intended) lol

I am sorry but between Jose and Irma, the fact that a hurricanes track is still not set 2 days out shows how poor our models are, this is the 21st century come on super computers!

by **rb924119** Sun Sep 17, 2017 7:38 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm concerned about storm surge here along the coast Point Pleasant Beach isn't above sea level by much. I will be taking pictures to share

Yeah, coastal flooding is definitely gonna be an issue, especially if it ends up taking a closer track. We'll see, though; at this point it's still up in the air (pun intended) lol
I am sorry but between Jose and Irma, the fact that a hurricanes track is still not set 2 days out shows how poor our models are, this is the 21st century come on super computers!

Totally agree, Jman. That's why when people say that meteorologists will eventually be replaced by automation I just laugh. No matter how good they may eventually become, they aren't gonna be able to replace human intuition. No shot.

by **mikeypizano** Sun Sep 17, 2017 7:40 pm

They really need to update these models Jman...

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 17, 2017 7:45 pm

mikeypizano wrote:They really need to update these models Jman...

They so-called have been! Seems the GFS upgrade has made it over amplify the pressure of tropical systems, and the CMC upgrade did the opposite. LOL

by **skinsfan1177** Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:32 pm

Its quiet in here when is next model run

by **nutleyblizzard** Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:52 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Its quiet in here when is next model run

Nam will be running in a few minutes.

by **Sanchize06** Sun Sep 17, 2017 10:00 pm

NAM basically the same thru hr 17, maybe a tad NW

by **Sanchize06** Sun Sep 17, 2017 10:11 pm

Slightly NW at 27, don't really think they'll be much of a difference this run though

by **nutleyblizzard** Sun Sep 17, 2017 10:13 pm

Nam is west at hr 27. Northern Precip shield is also more expansive.

by **Sanchize06** Sun Sep 17, 2017 10:16 pm

A bit east at hr 32, but as mentioned the precip field out ahead is more enhanced

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 17, 2017 10:17 pm

nam is east.

by **Sanchize06** Sun Sep 17, 2017 10:20 pm

jmanley32 wrote:nam is east.

It is a bit east, but so far thru hr 36 actually does bring in some more rain and stronger winds than 18z

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