Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

[algae888]

Al, I could not agree more with your comment about the biggest potential occurring as the pattern would relax/reload. Mikey, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think a disproportionate amount of our big storms have come at the ends of these types of patterns, especially in recent years. But I also really like the front end this time; very different setup than what we usually have.

RB I would be more concerned about suppression if we were in a El Nino Base state. All the years that I can remember during la nina when blocking showed up we had good Winters with that said the Base State that we're in now La Nina should keep some semblance of a South East Ridge so suppression would be the least of my concerns now

[Frank_Wx]

The newly released 18z GEFS is showing quite the winter pattern. Anomalous high latitude blocking over the EPO region will bring about a cross-polar flow and activate the polar jet stream. To be clear, December 6th is the date this pattern change to colder than normal weather is expected to occur. And it could last all the way through the 20th...



The EURO Ensembles show similar. Cold, cold, and more cold. This is out to December 9th.





Question becomes will snow accompany the cold. Answer is...yes.

Someone is going to see their first accumulating snow between the December 7th and December 20th time frame. Hopefully that is everyone on this board and not just N&W, or S&E, or way up north people.

The first storm threat is on December 8th, plus or minus 2 days. The GFS is sheering out the southern energy but the EURO tries to cook something up. By this point in time, the cold air will be in place.



A more detailed blog will follow this weekend if things continue looking as great as they do now.

[Snow88]

EPO on the GFS reaches -7 deviation by mid December

[billg315]

We have had quite a number of Dec. 4-6 storms over the years (I think I detailed them a year ago on here). Maybe this one is just coming a couple days late. :-)

[Math23x7]

Hr 384 of the 18Z GFS ensemble mean has me concerned that the cold air retreats mid-December.  It may be transient but it still has the nervous feel to it:



Let's just hope that the period from December 6th to 14th produces some snow for the region.

Also, Algae888, I addressed your comment in the Banter thread.

[Math23x7]

I'll say this: I was nervous when I saw what I posted earlier, but after seeing the next run, it may have just been a fluke run. Here is the updated one:

[Frank_Wx]

Lets keep 384 hour OP runs in banter. They're going to show something different every run. Pattern looks pretty locked in. 15th seems too early for it to breakdown. Rather keep discussions centered around potential storm threats

[docstox12]

Watched Lee last night, he mentioned a few times soaking rain midweek next, followed by pattern change and then a possible coastal next weekend with coast rain -inland snow.BRING IT ON!!!!!! This boring mild-cool dry pattern is awful!

[sroc4]

Nothing new and exciting happening overnight. We still have a few more AN days to get through over the next week, with seasonably cool days in between. So we wait...about another week before the real cold arrives. And we wait(at least I do) until at least Sunday/Monday before looking at true details about storm threats showing up on operational runs for late week. Beyond 5 days the Ops are still bouncing all over the place in their details at 500mb for late next week.

[Frank_Wx]

EURO ENS continue to show anomalous Pacific blocking in the medium range bringing about a cross-polar flow and driving arctic air into our area. Will be interesting to see how the Atlantic blocking holds up in all of this, but this image shows the mid-latitude trough trying to tilt negative. That would further increase probability of a storm threat.

[algae888]

GFS coming in hot for next Friday 6 to 12 in verbatim for the area. I'll tell you what I like the boundary getting hung up with the South East Ridge good old La Nina doing us some good fresh cold air and we begin our first system to track

[amugs]

Mike to combat the GEFS and your concern the EPS which has been on this change and colder pattern before the GEFS is saying it aint going nowhere and you need to look at synoptic of the pattern


We have East Mounatin Torque influence from the Asian continent that will help protract the PAC JEt and cause it to buckle this allowing teh zonal flow to slow down which will promote storms on the mainland - thus in turn we have a recurring typhoon that may rival Nuri as projected - what you need to understand is that this beast as modeled will pump the PNA Ridge on teh West Coast big time and send these heights and heat up into teh arctic which will reach teh other side of teh world into Russia giving us a N AO and NAO into Greenland. The EPO region will go N to a 2.5 SD to maybe 3 if models are handling this correctly at this stage. We have low frequency and low AAM in the PAC that is going to interfere with the pattern as well

Interference in the PAC with the blue colors


Recurving Typhoon

[Frank_Wx]

The EURO was very close to having a storm next Friday. All the pieces are there. An interesting week of tracking coming up. Our first event of the season

[nutleyblizzard]

The EURO was very close to having a storm next Friday. All the pieces are there. An interesting week of tracking coming up. Our first event of the season

The EURO day 8 500mb map just screams potential.

[algae888]

The EURO was very close to having a storm next Friday. All the pieces are there. An interesting week of tracking coming up. Our first event of the season

The EURO day 8 500mb map just screams potential.

Blocking in a La Nina and it's game on just go back and check the years that had such features

[sroc4]

Im pretty sure if you check any ENSO years La Nina, La Nada, El Nino with the -EPO/-AO/-NAO triplet for any length of time you will find it was game on Al. This is the trifecta us cold/ snow weenies could only dream of.

[Dunnzoo]

Of course! The one time in months I am going out to LI and it might snow!

[amugs]

Of course! The one time in months I am going out to LI and it might snow!

You may get snowed in the LOL!!

[Dunnzoo]

Of course! The one time in months I am going out to LI and it might snow!

You may get snowed in the LOL!!

I'll go hang out with Scott, but it slowed down on 18z, showing for Sunday

[Guest]

Of course! The one time in months I am going out to LI and it might snow!

It’ll snow more out here anyway Janet. Good move coming here

[mikeypizano]

The 18z lost the costal for the 8th... WAY OTS... Should we toss this run?

[amugs]

The 18z lost the costal for the 8th... WAY OTS... Should we toss this run?

Mike a week away they have a tenda tomlose a storm then bring it back. Time will tell with this. As Frank said Sun/Monday we know more about the set up incoming. The players aren't even on the field for this yet to be sampled soooo we wait

[mikeypizano]

The 18z lost the costal for the 8th... WAY OTS... Should we toss this run?

Mike a week away they have a tenda tomlose a storm then bring it back. Time will tell with this. As Frank said Sun/Monday we know more about the set up incoming. The players aren't even on the field for this yet to be sampled soooo we wait

Ah ok, hopefully it will actually snow for once... (I doubted the blizzard last year and we got 2 feet)

[sroc4]

It would be wise to not get too excited over any sort of soln we may see put out by models between now and early next week. With the amount of vorticity at the 500mb level there is no way models will zero in on a soln this far out esp because the pattern is still so zonal and won’t shift until late next week. So we still have time.

[amugs]

It would be wise to not get to excited over any sort of soln we may see put out by models between now and early next week. With the amount of vorticity at the 500mb level there is no way models will zero in on a soln this far out esp because the pattern is still so zonal and won’t shift until late next week. So we still have time.

The excitement is for a cold and possible white gold December for a change !!!! The models will be like PENN Station at rush hour all over the place so true.

[sroc4]

Of course! The one time in months I am going out to LI and it might snow!

You may get snowed in the LOL!!

I'll go hang out with Scott, but it slowed down on 18z, showing for Sunday

We’ll drink and toast in the snow capital of the northeast. To White Gold!

[Frank_Wx]

I really like the look at 500mb on December 8th. There may be energy being held back in the southern jet, but it will be energy out of the Polar and Pacific jets we need to pay attention to anyway. -EPO/+PNA/-NAO is a great trifecta to work with, but it will be critical to see exactly how the -NAO block behaves. Does it lock in or is it transient in nature?

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