Long Range Thread 15.0

Page 40 of 42 Previous  1 ... 21 ... 39, 40, 41, 42  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by MattyICE on Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:09 pm

I’m interested (when I get a second I promise to do my own digging) in if any of you see something more promising on current guidance for the jan 4th potential that may make it more credible than the favorable guidance we saw last week that has since materially diminished. And if so, what specifically? My first look leans a bit toward there being a bit more consensus amongst the globals this time around for next week? No rush on answers. Thanks.

MattyICE

Posts : 39
Join date : 2017-11-10
Age : 32
Location : Clifton, NJ (Eastern Passaic County)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by billg315 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 8:13 pm

I'll offer my take, which may not be popular here. The short answer is no. The models often have consensus on the wrong solution. I've always believed that anything beyond about five days in terms of specific weather forecasting (not things like general patterns, or above-or-below normal temperatures -- which can sometimes be gleaned a couple weeks out -- but rather specific "will it rain or snow on this particular day"-type forecasts) is barely better than guesswork. It's fun to watch, speculate, and track, but nobody should ever bet their house on a forecast 8 days out, unless you're comfortable losing your house.
avatar
billg315
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 1435
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 43
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 8:14 pm

billg315 wrote:I'll offer my take, which may not be popular here. The short answer is no. The models often have consensus on the wrong solution. I've always believed that anything beyond about five days in terms of specific weather forecasting (not things like general patterns, or above-or-below normal temperatures -- which can sometimes be gleaned a couple weeks out -- but rather specific "will it rain or snow on this particular day"-type forecasts) is barely better than guesswork. It's fun to watch, speculate, and track, but nobody should ever bet their house on a forecast 8 days out, unless you're comfortable losing your house.

I second this
avatar
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 3867
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 40
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:37 pm

Okay now back to the LR here.
Why does the pattern loo so good it because what is happening in Russia and the EAMT East Asian Mountain Torque which is causing a massive WPAC wave break which will in turn pump the epo negative but also aid in pumping the PNA or West Coast ridge.
When the TV is relaxing is when you get storms and some good ones. I'll post maps when I get to my computer

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 9008
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:44 pm

Sounds good Mugs but we've gone o for 2 here now looks like the last week. Tough to get enthused for another
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 2729
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 45
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by aiannone on Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:54 pm

0z NAM trended a bit wetter for the coast this weekend.
avatar
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2846
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)/ Binghamton, NY (Binghamton University)-Broome County

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by aiannone on Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:56 pm

avatar
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2846
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)/ Binghamton, NY (Binghamton University)-Broome County

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:08 pm

How much QPF did the NAM show. Alex. We will be near 20:1. Won't take much
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 2729
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 45
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by aiannone on Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:29 pm

about .15
avatar
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2846
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)/ Binghamton, NY (Binghamton University)-Broome County

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:33 pm

Wetter? .15. That's a good flurry
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 2729
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 45
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:36 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Wetter?  .15. That's a good flurry
lol coundlt been said better. so 1-2 inches, big whoop.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 13752
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by aiannone on Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:37 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Wetter?  .15. That's a good flurry
Well the 18z was completely dry and we still have a couple days left
avatar
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2846
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)/ Binghamton, NY (Binghamton University)-Broome County

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by oldtimer on Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:41 pm

Is that .15 including virga? lol

oldtimer
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 972
Join date : 2013-01-16
Age : 71
Location : Port Jefferson Station Suffolk County

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:43 pm

True Alex. Here's to hope
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 2729
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 45
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by aiannone on Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:52 pm

0z GFS was just a couple hours away from a nice event on the coast. Much different look than 18z which was bone dry. 0z has light snow with mod snow just off the coast
avatar
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2846
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)/ Binghamton, NY (Binghamton University)-Broome County

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:52 pm

GFS coming in more amped with weekend clipper.
avatar
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 1211
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 51
Location : Nutley, new jersey

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:12 pm

CMC which has been on fire since it's major upgrade is saying white matter lives LOL!!




_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 9008
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by amugs on Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:18 pm

Would be a solid 2-4" storm for ,NJ coast and LI

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 9008
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 48
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by oldtimer on Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:23 pm

From your lips to Gods ears.

oldtimer
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 972
Join date : 2013-01-16
Age : 71
Location : Port Jefferson Station Suffolk County

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:27 am

2-4" per hour I hope Mugs?
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 2729
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 45
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Math23x7 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:38 am

syosnow94 wrote:2-4" per hour I hope Mugs?

2-4" total, not per hour

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 1849
Join date : 2013-01-08

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:27 am

I know math it was sarcasm buddy
avatar
syosnow94
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 2729
Join date : 2014-11-24
Age : 45
Location : OTI DIRECTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by rb924119 on Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:39 am

Well the EURO is having flashbacks ahahahaha god darnit here we go again lmaooo

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 3981
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 26
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:42 am

Euro showed Godzilla for storm threat January 4th.


_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 11.4"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 17456
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 25
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:44 am

Most members of the euro ensembles also on board


_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 11.4"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 17456
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 25
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 15.0

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 40 of 42 Previous  1 ... 21 ... 39, 40, 41, 42  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum