January Obs and Discussions

Back into the lower 40's and 30's after today. Saturday could warm back up ahead of a cold front.

Frank_Wx wrote:Back into the lower 40's and 30's after today. Saturday could warm back up ahead of a cold front.

Nina pattern here wash rinse repeat - warm surge before passes to our NW then cold air comes back behind it

Freezing rain here in SVT since yesterday. Had to put the chains on my jeep to drive back from dinner last night. 31.8 degrees now expected to warm to 46 later today. Powerlines and trees are starting to sag.

very heavy rain in Wayne right now. NWS statement that we will get 40 MPH winds. I don't see any wind yet.

It was pouring. Must of lasted 2 mins. A few rumbles of thunder too.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1224 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2018

NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176-178-231800-
Hudson-Eastern Union-Eastern Essex-Western Bergen-Western
Union-Western Essex-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Passaic-Rockland-Kings
(Brooklyn)-Orange-Putnam-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-Southern
Westchester-Bronx-New York (Manhattan)-Richmond (Staten Is.)-Northern
Westchester-
1224 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2018

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NEW YORK CITY...NORTHEAST NEW
JERSEY... AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...

At 1222 PM EST, radar indicated a line of showers extending from
near New Windsor to Suffern to Caldwell to near Colonia to
Hightstown. Movement of individual cells within the line was
northeast at 70 mph, and the entire line was moving east at about 40
mph.

Winds up to 40 mph are possible with these showers.

These showers will be near...
 Passaic and Monsey around 1225 PM EST.
 Paterson and Hackensack around 1230 PM EST.
 Newark and Jersey City around 1235 PM EST.
 Hoboken and Secaucus around 1240 PM EST.
 Flushing and Mott Haven around 1245 PM EST.
 Yonkers and East Tremont around 1250 PM EST.
 Flatbush and New Rochelle around 1255 PM EST.
 Jamaica and Stamford around 100 PM EST.

56.5° and partly sunny. Feels like early May! Nice line of rain came through earlier, got .66" of rain so far today.

Sun came out right after than line of rain blasted through. Sure feels great. 57 now, maybe 60 in reach?

Dunnzoo wrote:56.5° and partly sunny. Feels like early May! Nice line of rain came through earlier, got .66" of rain so far today.

It does feel like early May. I was sitting out on the front porch with my youngest it was so mild.

Hit 55° for a high today, 1.07" in the bucket...

58* for me high now at 46* and winds have picked up

Here is a pic of the freezing rain we had in SVT today. Looked really cool when the sun came out. Forecast temp was 46 today, we never made it above 32 and it is currently 31.

Quick update on temp departures for Jan.  Still below normal for the region with a little less than a week to go:

sroc4 wrote:Quick update on temp departures for Jan.  Still below normal for the region with a little less than a week to go:

As of this morning temperature departures at the six National Weather Service reporting stations surrounding our area are as follows:

Central Park is -0.8°
LaGuardia -1.9°
JFK airport -2.5°
Islip -0.2°
Bridgeport -1.9°
Newark -0.7°.

Considering that the first eight days of the month were 10 to 15° below normal and now three of our reporting stations are in danger of going above normal for the month and the other three will finish somewhere between one and 1 1/2° below normal is a really sad statement of how the last 23 days of January went. A very very disappointing month in my book after a very very nice beginning.

I suppose it's just the time we live in with a warming planet, and I have to get used to it, but it is so difficult to get sustained below normal temperatures now, Very frustrating.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Quick update on temp departures for Jan.  Still below normal for the region with a little less than a week to go:

As of this morning temperature departures at the six National Weather Service reporting stations surrounding our area are as follows:

Central Park is -0.8°
LaGuardia -1.9°
JFK airport -2.5°
Islip -0.2°
Bridgeport -1.9°
Newark -0.7°.

Considering that the first eight days of the month were 10 to 15° below normal and now three of our reporting stations are in danger of going above normal for the month and the other three will finish somewhere between one and 1 1/2° below normal is a really sad statement of how the last 23 days of January went. A very very disappointing month in my book after a very very nice beginning.

I suppose it's just the time we live in with a warming planet, and I have to get used to it, but it is so difficult to get sustained below normal temperatures now, Very frustrating.

It's all about perspective, CP. For example, let's discuss your point about the actual month of January. The first week to ten days of the month were exceptional; textbook classic January. Well below average temperatures coupled with snow threats. The region was generally double digits below average. However, the thaw that followed has been no less spectacular - as you correctly stated, it has essentially wiped out the first ten days of the month. Depressing, but still no less spectacular. However, what if the label, or mankind's declaration of what "the month of January" is, was started earlier by 20 days? What if the month of January started in Week 2 of actual December? You would have had a whole calendar month that averaged 10° or more below average, which is up there with some of the coldest months on record. Just because we have had a calendar month of Jekyll and Hyde, does not mean that the whole evolution has not been spectacular. To have a whole month average that far below average, have a two to three week burst of warmth erase the departures of nearly half of the preceding period, to then be followed by an extended period that will very likely wind up significantly colder than the first against the means through the end of the stereotypical Winter Season is an absolutely amazing stretch.Two to three weeks of relative warmth bookended by periods of one month OR GREATER parallels Winters that we hold in very high regard. At least in my opinion. On the average, I firmly believe we will end this Winter, December 1st-April 1st anywhere from 2-5° below normal by the time this season is all said and done, with all of that coming in the periods from ~December 10th to January 10th, and February 10th-March 21st. Pretty large periods of sustained cold in my book

LOL,rb, great discussion but I know CP like a book.That warm stretch scoooed the pooch as far as he is concerned,LOL.

Anyway, true, it was a nice stretch of cold weather but not impressive in my book.Here is the winter I first started my observations at age 10.More days of sub freezing cold coupled with two major snowstorms, 15 inch plus and a 17 inch plus with a few 3 to 4 inchers in between.This recent cold stretch, was much less in the way of snow production than the 1960-1961 winter.Hopefully, the rest of this winter brings us some significant snow area wide.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIT4BRyz4qg

docstox12 wrote:LOL,rb, great discussion but I know CP like a book.That warm stretch scoooed the pooch as far as he is concerned,LOL.

Anyway, true, it was a nice stretch of cold weather but not impressive in my book.Here is the winter I first started my observations at age 10.More days of sub freezing cold coupled with two major snowstorms, 15 inch plus and a 17 inch plus with a few 3 to 4 inchers in between.This recent cold stretch, was much less in the way of snow production than the 1960-1961 winter.Hopefully, the rest of this winter brings us some significant snow area wide.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIT4BRyz4qg

And that is PRECISELY why I am looking so forward to this period beginning Week1-1.5 of February This is both the type of pattern AND the time of year where our largest snow threats, climatologically, are favored. Combine climatology with an anomalous, highly amplified pattern, and it becomes a question of "When?", not "If?". I suspect CP, Jman, and any others who have become "bored" with this winter will be singing a different tune come Week 3 of March, as we will finally be nearing the step-down process out of winter by that point. At least in my opinion, these last four to six weeks will be pretty darn entertaining.

Welcome to the last day of January. I started a couple of threads to talk about the upcoming snow threats this weekend. It looks like January will finish -1 to as much as -4 below normal.

16* here at 6:30AM

With back-to-back below normal months (I believe December was below normal unless my memory is getting bad, which is possible), barring a February torch, which doesn't seem modeled anywhere, this is shaping up to be a below normal temperature winter. Mix in a couple big Feb. and/or March storms along with some of the snow we've already had, this could end up being a pretty decent winter.

jan ended up a solid below normal month with above ave snowfall. a bi polar month for sure. here are final departures for our area....

cpk-0.9
islip -0.5
newark -0.7
lga -1.5
bdr -1.5
jfk -2.5
3 months straight of neg temp departures. we haven't seen that in a long time

billg315 wrote:With back-to-back below normal months (I believe December was below normal unless my memory is getting bad, which is possible), barring a February torch, which doesn't seem modeled anywhere, this is shaping up to be a below normal temperature winter. Mix in a couple big Feb. and/or March storms along with some of the snow we've already had, this could end up being a pretty decent winter.

Right now in the HV we are around 28 inches below in snow total from what would be an AVERAGE winter.Maybe this Sunday-Monday event can get us up to 30 inches.Even with that, we have to make 20 inches before the end of March.Doable but again, just average.The below normal temps were nice but in my book, I'd rather have normal temps with way above average in snow.

docstox12 wrote:

billg315 wrote:With back-to-back below normal months (I believe December was below normal unless my memory is getting bad, which is possible), barring a February torch, which doesn't seem modeled anywhere, this is shaping up to be a below normal temperature winter. Mix in a couple big Feb. and/or March storms along with some of the snow we've already had, this could end up being a pretty decent winter.

Right now in the HV we are around 28 inches below in snow total from what would be an AVERAGE winter.Maybe this Sunday-Monday event can get us up to 30 inches.Even with that, we have to make 20 inches before the end of March.Doable but again, just average.The below normal temps were nice but in my book, I'd rather have normal temps with way above average in snow.

True but I never judge a snow winter by snow in Dec and Jan. In my life the biggest storms have very often been in Feb and March so a cold start and a snowy finish works for me.

docstox12 wrote:

billg315 wrote:With back-to-back below normal months (I believe December was below normal unless my memory is getting bad, which is possible), barring a February torch, which doesn't seem modeled anywhere, this is shaping up to be a below normal temperature winter. Mix in a couple big Feb. and/or March storms along with some of the snow we've already had, this could end up being a pretty decent winter.

Right now in the HV we are around 28 inches below in snow total from what would be an AVERAGE winter.Maybe this Sunday-Monday event can get us up to 30 inches.Even with that, we have to make 20 inches before the end of March.Doable but again, just average.The below normal temps were nice but in my book, I'd rather have normal temps with way above average in snow.

I'm with Doc on this one. A no brainer.