January Obs and Discussions

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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:37 am

moleson wrote:Looks like it is going to be warm again next weekend.  Mike’s prediction for sustained warmth is coming to fruition  

The wisest and warmest weenie of them all has enlightened us yet again with such words of wisdom.   Oh great one if only you spoke more, for the world may be a better place. At the very least it is good to know your there to stir the pot should it sit idol for too long.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
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WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by moleson on Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:40 am

It’s spelled idle.

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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by docstox12 on Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:52 am

30 degrees, clear, calm.Still got my snowpack of a few inches.Hey CP, we should start another thread on the site that keeps track of snow pack days.I think we would beat the Shore and Island crew on THAT one,LOL.Anyhoo,my snowpack's life will be measured in hours now, 48 for today and a "soaking rain" as Lee Goldberg is fond of saying, is on the way.Up here there my be some freezing drizzle early so be careful if your on the road up here then.
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by rb924119 on Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:58 am

sroc4 wrote:
moleson wrote:Looks like it is going to be warm again next weekend.  Mike’s prediction for sustained warmth is coming to fruition  

The wisest and warmest weenie of them all has enlightened us yet again with such words of wisdom.   Oh great one if only you spoke more, for the world may be a better place.  At the very least it is good to know your there to stir the pot should it sit idol for too long.

Easy goes it, there, Romeo of snow lmao we can take solace in knowing that nobody disputed the fact that our earlier pattern would relax; there was, however, and still is, dispute on how much it actually relaxes. Let it roll, buddy, let it roll. We have a resurgence and an Old Man to resurrect in about three weeks Wink

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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by docstox12 on Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:06 am

rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
moleson wrote:Looks like it is going to be warm again next weekend.  Mike’s prediction for sustained warmth is coming to fruition  

The wisest and warmest weenie of them all has enlightened us yet again with such words of wisdom.   Oh great one if only you spoke more, for the world may be a better place.  At the very least it is good to know your there to stir the pot should it sit idol for too long.

Easy goes it, there, Romeo of snow lmao we can take solace in knowing that nobody disputed the fact that our earlier pattern would relax; there was, however, and still is, dispute on how much it actually relaxes. Let it roll, buddy, let it roll. We have a resurgence and an Old Man to resurrect in about three weeks Wink

Right on rb! We are only one month into winter, just entering the "dead of winter" the last two weeks of January and the first two of February.Lots of time, until the end of March, for snow events to happen.Let the warmacists have their day, they have had their arses frozen the last 6 weeks,LOL.
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by amugs on Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:30 am

moleson wrote:Looks like it is going to be warm again next weekend.  Mike’s prediction for sustained warmth is coming to fruition  
Really sustained warmth?? This is a typical Nina pattern wash rinse repeat.
Cutter backside cold then cutter warm up and backside cold. Look at this roller coaster. This is on the furnace of  of NYC. Burbs and ruburbs get colder at night easily on the cold days. Just wait till the flood gates of vodka cold burst open in Canada, you'll go back into hibernation and come back out around mid March when we are done and claim victory for this 2 weeks stretch. We all saw this coming and every great winter has a relaxation period. He tor pointed this out back in Dec. I don't see this as a torch but a regular Nina pattern. Enjoy.

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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by moleson on Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:38 am

Warm. Not torch. No idea why you are saying torch. Read the post. Warm. W. A. R. M. Warm. And thanks for explaining patterns. I had no idea.

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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:04 am

moleson wrote:It’s spelled idle.

Maybe it was subliminal since you are my idol

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by docstox12 on Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:16 am

sroc4 wrote:
moleson wrote:It’s spelled idle.

Maybe it was subliminal since you are my idol

lol! lol! lol!
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by syosnow94 on Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:31 am

sroc4 wrote:
moleson wrote:It’s spelled idle.

Maybe it was subliminal since you are my idol

I love this forum first thing in the morning with my coffee. A lady I know in Syosset claimed she got 6” last night!
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by FourSliced on Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:46 am

moleson wrote:Warm. Not torch. No idea why you are saying torch. Read the post. Warm. W. A. R. M. Warm. And thanks for explaining patterns. I had no idea.

With all the model hugging and wishcasting that goes on around here it’s hard to know who to believe anymore.

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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by docstox12 on Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:18 am

syosnow94 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
moleson wrote:It’s spelled idle.

Maybe it was subliminal since you are my idol

I love this forum first thing in the morning with my coffee.  A lady I know in Syosset claimed she got 6” last night!  


lol! lol! lol!
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by syosnow94 on Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:25 am

FourSliced wrote:
moleson wrote:Warm. Not torch. No idea why you are saying torch. Read the post. Warm. W. A. R. M. Warm. And thanks for explaining patterns. I had no idea.

With all the model hugging and wishcasting that goes on around here it’s hard to know who to believe anymore.

show me 1 example of wishcasting please.  One!

And as far as model hugging goes, on this site you actually get reprimanded if you model hug.  Amongst the actual mets on here not one hugs models.   maybe a few non Mets do but they get laughed at.  You gotta have something better to do than come on here once in a blue moon and attack.  Feel bad for you actually.  Sad
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by moleson on Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:29 am

syosnow94 wrote:
FourSliced wrote:
moleson wrote:Warm. Not torch. No idea why you are saying torch. Read the post. Warm. W. A. R. M. Warm. And thanks for explaining patterns. I had no idea.

With all the model hugging and wishcasting that goes on around here it’s hard to know who to believe anymore.

show me 1 example of wishcasting  please.  One!

And as far as model hugging goes, on this site you actually get reprimanded if you model hug.  Amongst the actual mets on here not one hugs models.   maybe a few non Mets do but they get laughed at.  You gotta have something better to do than come on here once in a blue moon and attack.  Feel bad for you actually.  Sad


Hit a nerve? Someone is super-sensitive,

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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:22 am

One of the best laid back sites on here. With many knowledgeable people with great anaylysis. With that said the from the 2Oth to the 5th is the thaw or torch whatever you want to call it. I don't call it a torch their will be AN days and some below normal days mixed in. Then we flip after the 5th
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by crippo84 on Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:25 am

moleson wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
FourSliced wrote:
moleson wrote:Warm. Not torch. No idea why you are saying torch. Read the post. Warm. W. A. R. M. Warm. And thanks for explaining patterns. I had no idea.

With all the model hugging and wishcasting that goes on around here it’s hard to know who to believe anymore.

show me 1 example of wishcasting  please.  One!

And as far as model hugging goes, on this site you actually get reprimanded if you model hug.  Amongst the actual mets on here not one hugs models.   maybe a few non Mets do but they get laughed at.  You gotta have something better to do than come on here once in a blue moon and attack.  Feel bad for you actually.  Sad


Hit a nerve?  Someone is super-sensitive,

Ignore the trolls guys. Going back and forth only reinforces their efforts. A thaw is expected - like a market correction lol. We'll be back in business soon.
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:43 am

crippo84 wrote:
moleson wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
FourSliced wrote:
moleson wrote:Warm. Not torch. No idea why you are saying torch. Read the post. Warm. W. A. R. M. Warm. And thanks for explaining patterns. I had no idea.

With all the model hugging and wishcasting that goes on around here it’s hard to know who to believe anymore.

show me 1 example of wishcasting  please.  One!

And as far as model hugging goes, on this site you actually get reprimanded if you model hug.  Amongst the actual mets on here not one hugs models.   maybe a few non Mets do but they get laughed at.  You gotta have something better to do than come on here once in a blue moon and attack.  Feel bad for you actually.  Sad


Hit a nerve?  Someone is super-sensitive,

Ignore the trolls guys. Going back and forth only reinforces their efforts. A thaw is expected - like a market correction lol. We'll be back in business soon.  

Well said. This period wasn’t something unexpected.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by syosnow94 on Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:59 am

I


Last edited by syosnow94 on Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:04 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by syosnow94 on Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:01 pm

moleson wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
FourSliced wrote:
moleson wrote:Warm. Not torch. No idea why you are saying torch. Read the post. Warm. W. A. R. M. Warm. And thanks for explaining patterns. I had no idea.

With all the model hugging and wishcasting that goes on around here it’s hard to know who to believe anymore.

show me 1 example of wishcasting  please.  One!

And as far as model hugging goes, on this site you actually get reprimanded if you model hug.  Amongst the actual mets on here not one hugs models.   maybe a few non Mets do but they get laughed at.  You gotta have something better to do than come on here once in a blue moon and attack.  Feel bad for you actually.  Sad


Hit a nerve?  Someone is super-sensitive,


Hit a nerve what? I don’t make forecasts or post models so there’s no nerve to hit. I’m just protecting my guys on this forum who work hard to do what they do! And they are great at it. I don’t stand for people coming on here to blow them up. If they won’t stand up for themselves I will.
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by moleson on Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:32 pm

The weather is beautiful today. You should step away from the keyboard and enjoy the day.

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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by Grselig on Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:35 pm

I have not posted much this year, but I lurk and this site is part of my routine. Keep up the great work. I have seen enough weather to know that everything is a cycle (hell yes, this is wish casting). Just when winter is written off in January, it very well might come back with a shot of steroids. 99% of the people here are weenies. No doubt. So what. They list possible solutions, probabilities, and just as essential, analysis to back up the statements. That ain't hugging. That is not wish casting. That is forecasting.

Back to my cave.

Folks, be careful today. You might melt!!!
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by rb924119 on Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:49 pm

To their defense, Mikey did openly discuss his thoughts on the pattern evolution regarding warmth in the time-mean over the coming weeks. It was pointed out, and fairly so, though again, there have been discrepancies on just how "torchy" it will end up. Bybajd large, though, these next three weeks will average above normal. There's no escaping that. I am not personally bothered by having this be pointed out by our members. A forecast was made and so far looks to have merit. All props go to the forecaster(s) involved with that, I don't want to neglect that.

Something I DO take issue with is saying that "there are so many model huggers and wishcasters it's hard to figure out who to believe". Do we, collectively, wish for a never-ending (or nearly) winter with as much snow as the Alps receive annually? I think that goes without saying. But from my nearly ten years of involvement with this crew (scratching my head as I try to accept the fact that it has in fact been that long lol) we very rarely flat out wishcast, and I'm speaking collectively. Yes, we make comments about how we wish for things, yes there are times where our excitement may get the better of us TO A DEGREE and influence our perception, but a vast majority of the time (and I'm talking 90+% here) the forecasters on this board, and even those who are not the battle-tested mets but enjoy following along and commenting/asking questions/offer their insight from a different perspective, call things as we see them. Sometimes it coincides with what we hope for, other times it's the opposite. But we try our absolute best to be as objective as possible because we take pride in what we do, and care about how well or poorly our forecasts verify. If somebody says there's a decent threat during the Day 15-19 period, nine times out of ten we end up tracking a system that ends up forming during that period. Whether it hits or not, that's a different story. But if you see things posted on this board, not only are they largely credible, but they are also supported by facts, analyses, educative examples, and experience. That's far from wishcasting. As for model hugging, I can speak from personal experience with this; yes, I will pick out a model, or blend of models for events and say "I like 'x' model(s). I'm sticking with it/them until see reasons otherwise." But I don't do that because they show me what I want to see. Heck, most times no models shownwhat I actually want to see lmao but I do that because they REPRESENT MY IDEAS, and how I envision things to evolve, BASED ON KNOWLEDGE, EXPERIENCE, etc.

We all get excited, that's the nature of our passion, but we also do our best give our unbiased assessments and forecasts for people to use in their lives, to demonstrate WHY we think what we do, and for us to continue honing out abilities as forecasters. Criticism is a powerful tool, and I absolutely WELCOME IT WHEN IT'S SUPPORTED WITH EVIDENCE; that's how we all improve, and honestly, nobody can beat me up over a bad forecast than myself. TRUST ME lol but to make a blanket claim just isn't fair to anybody. No matter, we can let our threat and verification scores speak for themselves. I've been deeply involved in this field for about 15 years now, and the forecasters on this board are the best forecasters I've ever had the pleasure of knowing, working with, or following. And I've followed/seen my fair share in my short life. For those that this is directed at, don't take this as an attack. It's not. It's simply the truth about how this board works, and the perspective from a forecaster, and I hope you continue to follow along and become more engaged, because I think you'll realize this pretty quickly.

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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by syosnow94 on Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:01 pm

Hey Molesom. I'm 46. Have 2 teenage kids and a grade 2 hamstring tear. I golfed 23 holes yesterday walking with my son. Partied late last night. Took the family to breakfast. Just finished up almost 2 hours of yard work with a chainsaw and now I'm taking the dog to the beach. Thanks for the advice though!
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:05 pm

moleson wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
FourSliced wrote:
moleson wrote:Warm. Not torch. No idea why you are saying torch. Read the post. Warm. W. A. R. M. Warm. And thanks for explaining patterns. I had no idea.

With all the model hugging and wishcasting that goes on around here it’s hard to know who to believe anymore.

show me 1 example of wishcasting  please.  One!

And as far as model hugging goes, on this site you actually get reprimanded if you model hug.  Amongst the actual mets on here not one hugs models.   maybe a few non Mets do but they get laughed at.  You gotta have something better to do than come on here once in a blue moon and attack.  Feel bad for you actually.  Sad


Hit a nerve?  Someone is super-sensitive,

Where is Heineken to take on this Warmacist?

If you're out there Heineken please help us, you're our only hope.

Yes I realize there is no E in the Molson brewing company.
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

Post by Grselig on Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:44 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Hey Molesom. I'm 46. Have 2 teenage kids and a grade 2 hamstring tear. I golfed 23 holes yesterday walking with my son. Partied late last night. Took the family to breakfast. Just finished up almost 2 hours of yard work with a chainsaw and now I'm taking the dog to the beach. Thanks for the advice though!

That's impressive Marlboro Man. Very Happy
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Re: January Obs and Discussions

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