February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

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February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 31, 2018 7:50 am

Ciao a tutti -

If you read the thread I started regarding the February 2nd event then you have an idea about where our pattern is headed. Resurgence of the -EPO will aid in bringing in colder than normal air into our area this weekend and likely through the first 10-15 days of February. Looking at this 500mb anomaly map, I see the trough tightening over the central U.S. which signifies a strong anomaly and rising heights along the east coast. During this time, a low pressure is expected to track to our area. If heights rise too much, this low pressure will track over or west of us which will result in rain. However, a track off the coast would bring many snow. This could also be a snow to rain scenario (if the low does track over us).



The GFS shows a wintry mix along the coast and snow for those N&W.



The EURO shows a similar track but is much warmer. I actually am not buying into its temperature depiction here.



Regardless, we have another system to track in the Day 5 range and the possibility of accumulating snow exists for everyone on the board. Timing for this event is Sunday afternoon, likely 3-4pm, through Monday morning. This may hinder or impact your SB plans depending on the timing and precipitation type of this system.


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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by billg315 on Wed Jan 31, 2018 9:13 am

Thanks for the update. I've been eyeing this one as a problem, not so much because of the amount of snow (as there does appear to be a risk for warm air intruding on this and mixing some rain into the pictrue) but because the timing is horrible for anyone planning to travel somewhere for the Super Bowl.

Looks like we might have a chance for something later in that week as well.
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by aiannone on Wed Jan 31, 2018 1:50 pm

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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by rb924119 on Wed Jan 31, 2018 2:46 pm

I think everywhere north and west of a line from about Point Pleasant, NJ back through northern Delaware and the the northern third of Maryland will end up seeing mainly snow from this system, with significant totals. Just my thoughts as of now.

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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by aiannone on Wed Jan 31, 2018 2:48 pm

rb924119 wrote:I think everywhere north and west of a line from about Point Pleasant, NJ back through northern Delaware and the the northern third of Maryland will end up seeing mainly snow from this system, with significant totals. Just my thoughts as of now.

So you are saying LI is going to rain? that has to be a mistake!
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by rb924119 on Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:04 pm

aiannone wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I think everywhere north and west of a line from about Point Pleasant, NJ back through northern Delaware and the the northern third of Maryland will end up seeing mainly snow from this system, with significant totals. Just my thoughts as of now.

So you are saying LI is going to rain? that has to be a mistake!

How did you draw that conclusion from the above? lmaoooo take a ruler and connect those points/regions; everywhere north of that ruler on a map will see mainly snow (in my opinion). Is LI north of that ruler? Wink Wink

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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by rb924119 on Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:06 pm

Thinking I made a mistake......how insulting!! I NEVER make mistakes: I just eat crow. Sometimes. told ya told ya

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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by aiannone on Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:08 pm

rb924119 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I think everywhere north and west of a line from about Point Pleasant, NJ back through northern Delaware and the the northern third of Maryland will end up seeing mainly snow from this system, with significant totals. Just my thoughts as of now.

So you are saying LI is going to rain? that has to be a mistake!

How did you draw that conclusion from the above? lmaoooo take a ruler and connect those points/regions; everywhere north of that ruler on a map will see mainly snow (in my opinion). Is LI north of that ruler? Wink Wink

HAHA, i saw the west of NJ part and got caught up in that lol
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:29 pm

Big hitters in their

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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by aiannone on Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:37 pm


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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by SENJsnowman on Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:02 pm

rb924119 wrote:I think everywhere north and west of a line from about Point Pleasant, NJ back through northern Delaware and the the northern third of Maryland will end up seeing mainly snow from this system, with significant totals. Just my thoughts as of now.

Ugh...made a nice little pic depicting this, but every time I try to upload it, it says the pic is too big. Unless I do it this size. Anyone know what I have to do to upload a decent gif or jpeg given the size/dimension limits of .122 mb and 500 x 500?
Attachments
Capture.GIF You don't have permission to download attachments.(51 Kb) Downloaded 31 times

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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:16 pm

rb I see it perfectly and you have me excited.
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by sroc4 on Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:21 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I think everywhere north and west of a line from about Point Pleasant, NJ back through northern Delaware and the the northern third of Maryland will end up seeing mainly snow from this system, with significant totals. Just my thoughts as of now.

Ugh...made a nice little pic depicting this, but every time I try to upload it, it says the pic is too big. Unless I do it this size. Anyone know what I have to do to upload a decent gif or jpeg given the size/dimension limits of .122 mb and 500 x 500?

Try taking a pic with your cell phone camera of what you made then upload

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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:49 pm

Sweet rb pumped, rayno pretty pumped lets go!
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by frank 638 on Wed Jan 31, 2018 5:14 pm

I hope so jamley just watching Lee Goldberg forcast and he was saying for Sunday we will have wet snow going over to rain possibly going back to snow until Monday morning I want a freaking blizzard already LOL

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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by amugs on Wed Jan 31, 2018 5:35 pm

frank 638 wrote:I hope so jamley just watching Lee Goldberg forcast and he was saying for Sunday we will have wet snow going over to rain possibly going back to snow until Monday morning I want a freaking blizzard already LOL

He put he kibosh on Tuesday and Fridays storm this week - NYC will most likely be a rain to snow scenario. They buy the warm look all the time.
TV mets are basically told to minimize things until the last hours - remember teh Super Bowl Storm of 2014, 2015, many examples not bashing but just saying. It's their job.
Operational are going to be pretty wild going forward with teh R/S line - be patient well those above CNJ - SNJ is toast with this sorry unless tehre are some big changes


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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by aiannone on Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:03 pm

GFS says everyone rains. Even up to Albany and southern VT lol. Inland runner
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by rb924119 on Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:34 pm

I don't know what the GFS is doing, or trying to do, or even trying to try to do; no matter which of the former unknowns, it matters not to me because I don't buy it. Not for one second. I really, really like a blend of the ICON and CMC, though think both thermal profiles are too warm. The problem that the GFS is having, in my opinion, is that it is trying to sharpen the entire long wave trough too much when the pattern just doesn't support it. You do not have a tall, skinny ridge spiking through the PNA/EPO domains allowing rapid and significant downstream amplification. Instead, you have a very broad Rex Block(y) ridge that encompasses most of the eastern Pacific. Because it is so broad, this will not serve as a mechanism by which the trough can sharpen. In looking at the Atlantic side of things, without a favorable NAO domain or presence of a 50-50 low, there is no mechanism by which to slow and buckle the steering flow to enough of an extent to really allow the trough to amplify by means of upstream propagation. Given all of this, what you should end up seeing based on the remaining forcing mechanisms in play, at least by my analysis, is the northern stream trough will remain generally broad based. However, it will still be able to dig deeper into the CONUS. This becomes important because the main energy that will be responsible for getting the moisture and surface feature going, will be coming in from the Pacific flow and get out ahead of it. As the long wave trough, driven by the northern stream, digs (but doesn't really sharpen), the flow will be allowed to back some ahead of it, which is how we will get the lower-level circulation/moisture drawn up this way, but because the flow is so fast, the northern stream energy will be able to catch the southern stream before it exits the East Coast. What does that northern stream energy deliver? A fresh injection of cold air. And what should result, is as the southern stream energy reaches about the latitude of Virginia, we should have the northern stream energy approaching to deliver the fresh cold air AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM-DRIVEN LOWER-LEVEL SYSTEM BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN in response to the additional forcing brought about by the presence of the northern stream energy. This is why I think we end up seeing a colder solution than is currently modeled, even on the two models I like the best and am blending for a general concept of what i think will occur.

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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by aiannone on Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:44 pm

rb924119 wrote:I don't know what the GFS is doing, or trying to do, or even trying to try to do; no matter which of the former unknowns, it matters not to me because I don't buy it. Not for one second. I really, really like a blend of the ICON and CMC, though think both thermal profiles are too warm. The problem that the GFS is having, in my opinion, is that it is trying to sharpen the entire long wave trough too much when the pattern just doesn't support it. You do not have a tall, skinny ridge spiking through the PNA/EPO domains allowing rapid and significant downstream amplification. Instead, you have a very broad Rex Block(y) ridge that encompasses most of the eastern Pacific. Because it is so broad, this will not serve as a mechanism by which the trough can sharpen. In looking at the Atlantic side of things, without a favorable NAO domain or presence of a 50-50 low, there is no mechanism by which to slow and buckle the steering flow to enough of an extent to really allow the trough to amplify by means of upstream propagation. Given all of this, what you should end up seeing based on the remaining forcing mechanisms in play, at least by my analysis, is the northern stream trough will remain generally broad based. However, it will still be able to dig deeper into the CONUS. This becomes important because the main energy that will be responsible for getting the moisture and surface feature going, will be coming in from the Pacific flow and get out ahead of it. As the long wave trough, driven by the northern stream, digs (but doesn't really sharpen), the flow will be allowed to back some ahead of it, which is how we will get the lower-level circulation/moisture drawn up this way, but because the flow is so fast, the northern stream energy will be able to catch the southern stream before it exits the East Coast. What does that northern stream energy deliver? A fresh injection of cold air. And what should result, is as the southern stream energy reaches about the latitude of Virginia, we should have the northern stream energy approaching to deliver the fresh cold air AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM-DRIVEN LOWER-LEVEL SYSTEM BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN in response to the additional forcing brought about by the presence of the northern stream energy. This is why I think we end up seeing a colder solution than is currently modeled, even on the two models I like the best and am blending for a general concept of what i think will occur.

Great analysis! Certainly makes a lot of sense. Let’s see how the models tend over the next several days
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by Math23x7 on Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:30 am

0Z EURO shows this being an all rain event for much of the region. IMHO, we come up empty from both the 2nd and the 5th.

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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by syosnow94 on Thu Feb 01, 2018 6:40 am

NWS hugging warmer guidance as well. Says rain snow mix with minor accumulation for this entire forum coverage area
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by jimv45 on Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:36 am

Still holding onto hope for this weekend storm! Plus Rb is high on this so will see.

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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by docstox12 on Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:52 am

Hmmmmmmm, now NWS has me all snow for the Sunday event with a low chance of 6 inches.Way far out from the event so I'm sure this will flip then flop then flip then flop in true NWS fashion,LOL.
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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by jimv45 on Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:57 am

Yea doc Albany weather service seems to think more snow then rain too!!

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Re: February 4th-5th: Super-bowl Storm Possible

Post by amugs on Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:06 pm

Math23x7 wrote:0Z EURO shows this being an all rain event for much of the region.  IMHO, we come up empty from both the 2nd and the 5th.

Why? Cause the EURO shows it?

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