March 2nd Nor'easter Update

Ugh 06 z nam not good for us Al. A few inches at best but go just north and totals start ramp up quick. Wow 70 mph gusts eastern CT on east that's crazy.

Hrdps 06z def not as much snow coverage as 00z not good trends overnight nor this morning ugh. Coastal flooding advisory only so I guess their concern for coastal impacts has also been reduced.

Woah my accuwx forecast shows wind gusts 69 mph Fri I don't see that very often. Not that high.

Ugh hdrps 06z snow is shifted well west it rains almost entire time NYC. Thatnk 00z fantasy map. I'm trying not to lose hope maybe somehow the 12z runs today work out. If not unless it all comes down to a nowcast I think we have our answer.

jmanley32 wrote:Ugh 06 z nam not good for us Al. A few inches at best but go just north and totals start ramp up quick. Wow 70 mph gusts eastern CT on east that's crazy.

Jon we're so close on all the models too close to feel any confidence with the forecast at this time I mean one or two degrees to overcome is not har with intense rate given the location of the low it's definitely going to be a nowcast for anyone from nassua border on West

algae888 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Ugh 06 z nam not good for us Al. A few inches at best but go just north and totals start ramp up quick. Wow 70 mph gusts eastern CT on east that's crazy.

Jon we're so close on all the models too close to feel any confidence with the forecast at this time I mean one or two degrees to overcome is not har with intense rate given the location of the low it's definitely going to be a nowcast for anyone from nassua border on West

okay well it'll b a real nowcast for me as I won't be able check in on Fri much unless we get a snow day which I doubt. Early dismissal may be possible if the snow comes early enough.

NWS has me for a WSW with 4 to 8 inches possible but the forecast for my area is for rain/snow with a few inches,LOL.Talk about waffling.I'm at 600 plus feet elevation, so if this storm "manufactures" it's own cold air, will be in good position.CP is right, this storm resembles the Feb 2010 storm.Mugsy mentioned the December 2002 analog which I "ahem" mentioned before he posted that.Let the nowcast begin!!!

NWS thinking this is more of a Catskills storm.I'm right on the boundary of the heavy snow.If that's the case, areas S and E will see very little snow.Goldberg mentioned 3 to 6 for my area and 1 to 3 for NYC and LI.Jersey shoe ends as a period of snow.

Yea doc I think 3-6 is a pretty good bet for us. But it will not take much to up that will see.

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Ugh 06 z nam not good for us Al. A few inches at best but go just north and totals start ramp up quick. Wow 70 mph gusts eastern CT on east that's crazy.

Jon we're so close on all the models too close to feel any confidence with the forecast at this time I mean one or two degrees to overcome is not har with intense rate given the location of the low it's definitely going to be a nowcast for anyone from nassua border on West

okay well it'll b a real nowcast for me as I won't be able check in on Fri much unless we get a snow day which I doubt. Early dismissal may be possible if the snow comes early enough.

Good morning. FYI unless they call early dismissal in advance  which is very rare..call while in school never happens to hard logistically to get kids home with parents working..my son in 7th grade and only once in kindergarten did he have early dissimissal due to hot weather at end of year was over 100 degrees...we knew in advance...have a good day

weatherwatchermom wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Ugh 06 z nam not good for us Al. A few inches at best but go just north and totals start ramp up quick. Wow 70 mph gusts eastern CT on east that's crazy.

Jon we're so close on all the models too close to feel any confidence with the forecast at this time I mean one or two degrees to overcome is not har with intense rate given the location of the low it's definitely going to be a nowcast for anyone from nassua border on West

okay well it'll b a real nowcast for me as I won't be able check in on Fri much unless we get a snow day which I doubt. Early dismissal may be possible if the snow comes early enough.

Good morning. FYI unless they call early dismissal in advance  which is very rare..call while in school never happens to hard logistically to get kids home with parents working..my son in 7th grade and only once in kindergarten did he have early dissimissal due to hot weather at end of year was over 100 degrees...we knew in advance...have a good day

little diff where I work as the morning kids go home at 11:30am so they would just not have afternoon session. When I was a kid planty times it was called during day and that was public.

I don't trust any global for details in this tight with a storm this dynamic no matter what they say.  The overall H5, H7 and H8 set up is relatively unchanged overnight. Ive said from the beginning the complexity of this storm will challenge every model including the hi res ones in tight.  We are almost at the time where you switch to observations.  I am still going to rely mostly on the timing and strgth of the upper and mid level features and not on snow maps output from any one model.  I am still not confident in a snow map.  I want to look at the 12z data first.  I think if you drew a line through NYC SW-NE +/-35miles that is going to be the true battle zone for the real deal..again I don't trust any moidel to mail the dynamics of this storm.  If there was ever going to be a now cast storm this is it.

Here was a Bernie tweet from about 15 mins ago.

I’m glad I haven’t let myself get sucked in too much although last night I was close. I’ve never liked this threat
Mist of the board. These models spitting out nothing. Then 6 hours later 16” are absurd. I trust the guys on here but I really hope I’m wrong and the 12z models change. Because after this last month of February torch /bust rain and 30’s would be a real kick in the groin. What a crapshow

sroc4 wrote:I don't trust any global for details in this tight with a storm this dynamic no matter what they say.  The overall H5, H7 and H8 set up is relatively unchanged overnight.  Ive said from the beginning the complexity of this storm will challenge every model including the hi res ones in tight.  We are almost at the time where you switch to observations.  I am still going to rely mostly on the timing and strgth of the upper and mid level features and not on snow maps output from any one model.  I am still not confident in a snow map.  I want to look at the 12z data first.  I think if you drew a line through NYC SW-NE +/-35miles that is going to be the true battle zone for the real deal..again I don't trust any moidel to mail the dynamics of this storm.  If there was ever going to be a now cast storm this is it.

Here was a Bernie tweet from about 15 mins ago.

Very complex and dynamic situation indeed. When you look at the H5 maps it just screams a major snowstorm, yet the surface maps for the most part does not reflect that. Mid level thermals are on the fence with this; any slight deviation with low placement and when the H5 low closes up will be key. Huge 12z runs today and even then we can most certainly see disagreements between the models. Its a forecasting nightmare for sure.

sroc4 wrote:I don't trust any global for details in this tight with a storm this dynamic no matter what they say.  The overall H5, H7 and H8 set up is relatively unchanged overnight.  Ive said from the beginning the complexity of this storm will challenge every model including the hi res ones in tight.  We are almost at the time where you switch to observations.  I am still going to rely mostly on the timing and strgth of the upper and mid level features and not on snow maps output from any one model.  I am still not confident in a snow map.  I want to look at the 12z data first.  I think if you drew a line through NYC SW-NE +/-35miles that is going to be the true battle zone for the real deal..again I don't trust any moidel to mail the dynamics of this storm.  If there was ever going to be a now cast storm this is it.

Here was a Bernie tweet from about 15 mins ago.

always like ur tgeraputic abslysis stock lol. Let's just wait and see what happens you are right. The models could all b wrong maybe things cool do quick we see much more snow. Maybe they don't and it's basically a tropical storm.

Still hoping to get out of Laguardia @ 8 AM tomorrow morning - Hopefully the wind holds off a bit till afternoon

High winds watch with gusts up to 60 for me now according to mt holly

It looks to me almost all guidance overnight went back to a dual low situation. When analyzing the lower levels it appears this leads to a strong easterly fetch between about 900mb-925mb. This weird dual or perhaps elongated low leads to a deform band oriented more E/NE to W/SW and a warm nose that extends deep inland. The NAM yesterday when it showed the best poss outcome consolidated the LP just S of Cape Cod for a prolongued period, and you had your much more classic N/NE to S/SW orientation to the deform band and a more N/NE to S/SW flow throughout the column. The question is with the overall track of the H5 and H7 closed low relatively stable in modeling, with subtle diff still, do we believe this prolonged double barrel or elongated low configuration sitting on or near the BM? Because if this thing consolidates into a single rapidly deepening low the "neg trends overnight" will disappear in reality. Lets see what12z holds in some of the higher res models.

bloc1357 wrote:Still hoping to get out of Laguardia @ 8 AM tomorrow morning - Hopefully the wind holds off a bit till afternoon

winds start kick up early am by 8 prolly already Gusty. Driven eain or snow depending on what happens. I'd just check with ur carrier before u leave the house.

jmanley32 wrote:

bloc1357 wrote:Still hoping to get out of Laguardia @ 8 AM tomorrow morning - Hopefully the wind holds off a bit till afternoon

winds start kick up early am by 8 prolly already Gusty. Driven eain or snow depending on what happens. I'd just check with ur carrier before u leave the house.

Believe me I plan on...Trying to get away for a bachelor party weekend - Half of us leaving from JFK the others from LGA

Stealing this from another board.  But here is my first call for the storm.  Subject to change.....but might not.  lol

sroc4 wrote:Stealing this from another board.  But here is my first call for the storm.  Subject to change.....but might not.  lol

one my fav shows. What no Phil..osophies about it lol. I'm not go continue ur to worry till your throw in towel. Man I'm go miss 12z runs inmsy have sneak bathroom break lol what time is nam exactly again and when it's shown the storm not when it starts. Hoping see lots of hoots and hollers later. Frank must feel same way as he was leaning to do a map last night and after one comment on nam left rest of night. I found that odd. It's frustrating I'm sure even moreso for you all that do your forecasting which for this complex a system has been great final outcome being snow or rain. There's been no doubts bout the wind. Warnings up eastern long island eastern CT and mass 70 mph gusts! Still a watch here but my hunch is after 12z maybe latest 4pm update it goes to warning. May even see increase in highest gust maybe to 65 is my guess looking at the models. I don't see this being down graded to a wind advisory.

TRUST. THE. PROCESS.

SCI at 100%. Bring on those 12z models!

rb924119 wrote:TRUST. THE. PROCESS.

Trusting the process isn't nearly as much fun as living and dieing with every blip on every model run.

NW NJ, NEPA, and SW NY will be the bullseye. Snow map to come this afternoon.

Does SW NY include my Island?