March 2nd Nor'easter Update

weatherwatchermom wrote:and just watched Lee Goldberg...he is not buying your way of thinking fellas...oh boy

Joanne, I watched Jeff earlier on FB and he hinted at a heavy wet snow for some areas. They really wait until the last minute to sound the alarm, they have such a large viewing area, they have to be careful. We, on the otherhand, don't have to really report to anybody, so....

The winds are extremely intense on the 18z nam high end high wind warning criteria even if u chop off for the 850 level difference. Crazy I'm pumped and hoping that 16.5 over me pans out and not this nws flood watch.

[quote="Dunnzoo"]

weatherwatchermom wrote:and just watched Lee Goldberg...he is not buying your way of thinking fellas...oh boy

Joanne, I watched Jeff earlier on FB and he hinted at a heavy wet snow for some areas. They really wait until the last minute to sound the alarm, they have such a large viewing area, they have to be careful. We, on the otherhand, don't have to really report to anybody, so....

Dunnzoo wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:and just watched Lee Goldberg...he is not buying your way of thinking fellas...oh boy

Joanne, I watched Jeff earlier on FB and he hinted at a heavy wet snow for some areas. They really wait until the last minute to sound the alarm, they have such a large viewing area, they have to be careful. We, on the otherhand, don't have to really report to anybody, so....

I have to report to an office full of people who, for whatever reason, have come to rely on my forecasts. lol so I am sometimes under pressure. Luckily I bought into where the NAM was heading as a more logical solution 48 hours ago (with the support of a few others on here), so I'm looking pretty good right now.

What's the time frame we are looking at?

aiannone wrote:

DA FAQ!!! I step away for one gd hour and things go off the rails!

Lee buying colder solutions now with a changeover

SoulSingMG wrote:

aiannone wrote:

DA FAQ!!! I step away for one gd hour and things go off the rails!

ha ha...where do we all sign..I will give a drop of blood for that map...

dsix85 wrote:What's the time frame we are looking at?

Right now, if we are going by the NAM solution, it looks like rain begins around 6 or 7 tomorrow evening. It rains through the night. Starting around 4 a.m. it starts changing to snow in the northwestern areas. By 7 a.m. a good part of NJ is over to snow. By mid-to-late morning everyone is snow except maybe eastern Long Island.

SoulSingMG wrote:

aiannone wrote:

DA FAQ!!! I step away for one gd hour and things go off the rails!

I know nuts right? Wait till u see the name wind map. With those totals what we been discuss is going to happen if nam is right. U got a hww too right?

billg315 wrote:

dsix85 wrote:What's the time frame we are looking at?

Right now, if we are going by the NAM solution, it looks like rain begins around 6 or 7 tomorrow evening. It rains through the night. Starting around 4 a.m. it starts changing to snow in the northwestern areas. By 7 a.m. a good part of NJ is over to snow. By mid-to-late morning everyone is snow except maybe eastern Long Island.

dang and it still snows that much that's go b a b word if comes true.

Honestly cant believe this is happening! It’s currently 60 degrees by me, beautiful out!

billg315 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:and just watched Lee Goldberg...he is not buying your way of thinking fellas...oh boy

Joanne, I watched Jeff earlier on FB and he hinted at a heavy wet snow for some areas. They really wait until the last minute to sound the alarm, they have such a large viewing area, they have to be careful. We, on the otherhand, don't have to really report to anybody, so....

I have to report to an office full of people who, for whatever reason, have come to rely on my forecasts. lol so I am sometimes under pressure. Luckily I bought into where the NAM was heading as a more logical solution 48 hours ago (with the support of a few others on here), so I'm looking pretty good right now.

Me too! It's pretty cool how the info from this boards emanates to so many others who have no idea what happens here and all the thought that goes into it. You folks don't know the half of how many people you positively effect!

Not buying it yet down here on the southern jersey shore. I'll let you guys work your magic...LOL. I'll watch and wait. Looking forward to many pages of posts.

Ok so the 18z GFS is coming in. For what it's worth (which of late is not much). It shows the H5 Low over the southern Delmarva early Friday morning (good). It shows the 850 cold air crashing to the coast by mid morning (good). However, stubbornly it keeps this an all rain event for most at the surface except for northeast PA and central and western NY state. I'd say the upper level reports from the GFS are encouraging. The surface projection . . . likely out to lunch.

GFS has a powerful storm and it has some of the right upper level dynamics, but just not getting it in terms of surface impacts it seems. Curious if others see it that way as well.

NAM winds beigin to ramp up at hr 37 and is still ripping at hr 60!! This is prolly the height but NYC area is in the crosshairs along with CT and LI for pretty much entire duration, this will be very very bad and even though its 850 winds these wont have trouble mixing down maybe even almost completely highest looks around 100+ knots holy MOG (rb do I have that right as a possibility?) And these are sustained! For now I will go with NWS saying 60mph gusts but look at this potential and the inland potential too.

Patterns aside, I'm wishcasting that the 18z NAM 3k verifies. It's the only one that has me at more than 4-6".

EURO AND NAM PERFECT TOGETHER.
DON'T LISTEN TO THE TV METS PLEASE THEY ARE SO CONSERVATIVE. HERE IS WHAT U NEED TO KNOW!!

"Let the pattern dicate the outcome" BOYAAAHH BABY!!

One thing to keep in mind wind tends to be overdone on all models. I do think, however; there will be tropical storm gusts but I always tend to tread lightly, maybe take 75-80% total value of the predicted winds.

billg315 wrote:GFS has a powerful storm and it has some of the right upper level dynamics, but just not getting it in terms of surface impacts it seems. Curious if others see it that way as well.

That should be put to rest for these dynamic storms I am giving that Good For Shuttle time of day of with this.
It is Bill but the surface with that low resolution model can't find beach ball in a sand trap on thegolf couare. And the TV mets will hump this model cause it shows minimal

dsix85 wrote:One thing to keep in mind wind tends to be overdone on all models. I do think, however; there will be tropical storm gusts but I always tend to tread lightly, maybe take 75-80% total value of the predicted winds.

Yes but as discussed in previous thread these winds will be coming in from a favorable direction, usually with our storms they don't. So I would watch out, already a HWW here for gusts to 60mph, but the nam prints out what looks like could push gusts to 70mph maybe higher out tip LI and cape cod, or maybe thats too high. But you rarely see higher than 64kts at 850s with a noreaster. And its quite a few shades higher in a lot of spots.

amugs wrote:

billg315 wrote:GFS has a powerful storm and it has some of the right upper level dynamics, but just not getting it in terms of surface impacts it seems. Curious if others see it that way as well.

That should be put to rest for these dynamic storms I am giving that Good For Shuttle time of day of with this.
It is Bill but the surface with that low resolution model can't find beach ball in a sand trap on thegolf couare. And the TV mets will hump this model cause it shows minimal

Which I do not get isn't it better to be safe than sorry? The school I am working at has key pads to get into, would there ever be a threat? Maybe maybe not but why risk not having a key in system for extra protection. Hence the mets should be laying out the possibility of a storm maybe bigger than our bomb storm.

Good write-up thanks Jman for elaborating. We all know that someone gets slammed with hurricane force winds, most likely around Montauk

Nothing worse than losing power in the middle of a snow storm. I know jman loves wind but I’m not a big fan. Give me 200 foot visibility with no wind and I’m good.

amugs wrote:

billg315 wrote:GFS has a powerful storm and it has some of the right upper level dynamics, but just not getting it in terms of surface impacts it seems. Curious if others see it that way as well.

That should be put to rest for these dynamic storms I am giving that Good For Shuttle time of day of with this.
It is Bill but the surface with that low resolution model can't find beach ball in a sand trap on thegolf couare. And the TV mets will hump this model cause it shows minimal

I'm amazed how many of the TV mets seem so married to this model, all good evidence to the contrary. The upper level dynamics, the NAM, the Euro, the UK, all point toward the right solution here (rain changing over to a heavy snow for most), yet they are clinging to this surface representation on the GFS which is clearly off the mark. Well, they'll come in line at the last minute. Hopefully before the snow is falling. lol