March 2nd Nor'easter Update

Nothing worse than losing power in the middle of a snow storm. I know jman loves wind but I’m not a big fan. Give me 200 foot visibility with no wind and I’m good.

amugs wrote:

billg315 wrote:GFS has a powerful storm and it has some of the right upper level dynamics, but just not getting it in terms of surface impacts it seems. Curious if others see it that way as well.

That should be put to rest for these dynamic storms I am giving that Good For Shuttle time of day of with this.
It is Bill but the surface with that low resolution model can't find beach ball in a sand trap on thegolf couare. And the TV mets will hump this model cause it shows minimal

I'm amazed how many of the TV mets seem so married to this model, all good evidence to the contrary. The upper level dynamics, the NAM, the Euro, the UK, all point toward the right solution here (rain changing over to a heavy snow for most), yet they are clinging to this surface representation on the GFS which is clearly off the mark. Well, they'll come in line at the last minute. Hopefully before the snow is falling. lol

I just finished golfing. I don’t know what to believe. Frank is in on it now which gives hope. I’m completely mind effed. Don’t know what to believe. Expecting rain

dsix85 wrote:Good write-up thanks Jman for elaborating. We all know that someone gets slammed with hurricane force winds, most likely around Montauk

Of copurse highest will be along coast (And no, I do not say as of yet that anyone sees hurricane winds, over ocean sure) but if NAM is right I would expect damaging winds to extend into at least northern westchester too and NJ. Could also approach higher than 60mph gusts, we will see. Funny NWS is all over that part for NYC area...and no snow.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Nothing worse than losing power in the middle of a snow storm. I know jman loves wind but I’m not a big fan. Give me 200 foot visibility with no wind and I’m good.

I hear ya CP, not wishing anyone to lose power but this has been the one pretty steady thing with this system. Even at 40mph gusts a heavy wet snow will bring trees down sorry to say. But if the 18z NAM plays out it will just be downright bad and honestly I dunno if I want to see it that bad, also looked at some seas maps and the coast is toast if NAM is right. beaches will be bashed.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Nothing worse than losing power in the middle of a snow storm. I know jman loves wind but I’m not a big fan. Give me 200 foot visibility with no wind and I’m good.

To each his own right? I don't get the whole wind thing either haha. I HATE windy days especially when precipitation is falling. It causes power outages, downed tree limbs, and all around blows stuff all over the place. I'll take a heavy snow with no wind all day.

crippo84 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Nothing worse than losing power in the middle of a snow storm. I know jman loves wind but I’m not a big fan. Give me 200 foot visibility with no wind and I’m good.

To each his own right?  I don't get the whole wind thing either haha.  I HATE windy days especially when precipitation is falling. It causes power outages, downed tree limbs, and all around blows stuff all over the place. I'll take a heavy snow with no wind all day.

Well can't say I do not understand everything you guys like LOL, and damn CP 200 ft snow with no wind thats a heck of a heavy snow!~!! I would be excited for that too.

I'm sorry I can't be a part of much tonight as I'm now at work, but I am absolutely APPALLED at how the NWS and on-air mets are handling this. Gotta go. Absolutely appalled.

Winter storm watch for my area already posted for Friday morning into late Friday night. Calling for 4-8 inches with 10" amounts in the higher elevations.

rb924119 wrote:I'm sorry I can't be a part of much tonight as I'm now at work, but I am absolutely APPALLED at how the NWS and on-air mets are handling this. Gotta go. Absolutely appalled.

Man cut out!!! You gotta be here for the 00z runs we need your reassurance! Do you think the 18z nam winds could veryify? What percentage of those sustained on the map I posted, I am under the 80kt 850mb winds sustained, half? 75%? Needless to say I think gusts could easily surpass 60mph, but just a guess.

rb924119 wrote:I'm sorry I can't be a part of much tonight as I'm now at work, but I am absolutely APPALLED at how the NWS and on-air mets are handling this. Gotta go. Absolutely appalled.

What?! You can't leave us NOW!!!

SoulSingMG wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I'm sorry I can't be a part of much tonight as I'm now at work, but I am absolutely APPALLED at how the NWS and on-air mets are handling this. Gotta go. Absolutely appalled.

What?! You can't leave us NOW!!!

soul you see my post of the 3km 850mb winds? Did ya fall off your chair lol

UPTON Briefing....going with no SNOW for now. I'm with Rb. Very confused why there is no risk mentioned of snow down to the coast/city.

https://twitter.com/nwsnewyorkny/status/968975679399264256?s=21

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I'm sorry I can't be a part of much tonight as I'm now at work, but I am absolutely APPALLED at how the NWS and on-air mets are handling this. Gotta go. Absolutely appalled.

What?! You can't leave us NOW!!!

soul you see my post of the 3km 850mb winds? Did ya fall off your chair lol

Yes, lol, I just about did. Many METS are taking at least the wind threat seriously ATM.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Nothing worse than losing power in the middle of a snow storm. I know jman loves wind but I’m not a big fan. Give me 200 foot visibility with no wind and I’m good.

I agree with you Cp. I'm not a big fan of wind. Actually I HATE IT !

Wow!!! At tbe hdrps

algae888 wrote:Wow!!! At tbe harps

Unreal!!!!

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I'm sorry I can't be a part of much tonight as I'm now at work, but I am absolutely APPALLED at how the NWS and on-air mets are handling this. Gotta go. Absolutely appalled.

Man cut out!!! You gotta be here for the 00z runs we need your reassurance! Do you think the 18z nam winds could veryify? What percentage of those sustained on the map I posted, I am under the 80kt 850mb winds sustained, half? 75%? Needless to say I think gusts could easily surpass 60mph, but just a guess.

I love the wind coupled with heavy precip too Jman, think this will be one hell of a storm with both, hoping more white than wet as well

algae888 wrote:Wow!!! At tbe hdrps

where do you get that and what does it show?

RGEM!!! Cave toward NAM.

Look familiar?

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:Wow!!! At tbe hdrps

where do you get that and what does it show?

Tropical Tidbits

Radz wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:Wow!!! At tbe hdrps

where do you get that and what does it show?

Tropical Tidbits

i do not see it does it have another name under the models?

Shift that with the NAM blend a SHAZZZAAAMMMMMMMM!!

jmanley32 wrote:

Radz wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:Wow!!! At tbe hdrps

where do you get that and what does it show?

Tropical Tidbits

i do not see it does it have another name under the models?

under the Rgem, scroll down under mesoscale models

amugs wrote:Shift that with the NAM blend a SHAZZZAAAMMMMMMMM!!

Thats only good for those NW of NYC, or are you saying it should be more in line with NAM? Still cannot find page of that image on tropical tidbits

Radz wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Radz wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:Wow!!! At tbe hdrps

where do you get that and what does it show?

Tropical Tidbits

i do not see it does it have another name under the models?

under the Rgem, scroll down under mesoscale models

omg it scrools now LMAO, I never knew it scrolled lol, now I see rgem too good lord

ohh and its not nearly donw at the end I see