March 2nd Nor'easter Update

adamfitz1969 wrote:

Would love to see it but I'm losing faith. Help me with my unfaith.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

adamfitz1969 wrote:

Would love to see it but I'm losing faith. Help me with my unfaith.

Not a meteorologist, less than a layman even, I will come at this from a very different angle as opposed to meteorology. With just about everyone downplaying this storm, from the major news networks down to the average Joe.....i believe everyone will get caught off guard by the complexity of this storm which hardly anyone gave full attention to. It's usually the storms which aren't give air time, that makes these storms....most memorable in people's minds They tend to never forget them even if they only produce less than a foot. I "believe" this storm will shock many people, including N and W of the Hudson Valley right down to NYC Metro. This afternoon while i was at work in White Plains.....i noticed an eerie calm this afternoon, a stillness i could not describe. A calm before the storm....of memorable proportions.

adamfitz1969 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

adamfitz1969 wrote:

Would love to see it but I'm losing faith. Help me with my unfaith.

Not a meteorologist, less than a layman even, I will come at this from a very different angle as opposed to meteorology. With just about everyone downplaying this storm, from the major news networks down to the average Joe.....i believe everyone will get caught off guard by the complexity of this storm which hardly anyone gave full attention to. It's usually the storms which aren't give air time, that makes these storms....most memorable in people's minds They tend to never forget them even if they only produce less than a foot. I "believe" this storm will shock many people, including N and W of the Hudson Valley right down to NYC Metro. This afternoon while i was at work in White Plains.....i noticed an eerie calm this afternoon, a stillness i could not describe. A calm before the storm....of memorable proportions.

Same! I work in White Plains as well and while I was walking down Mamaroneck, I thought, “man is it an eerily calm and suspect atmosphere right now.” Totally agree on the surprise aspect with this storm too. Wild day ahead of us.

SoulSingMG wrote:

adamfitz1969 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

adamfitz1969 wrote:

Would love to see it but I'm losing faith. Help me with my unfaith.

Not a meteorologist, less than a layman even, I will come at this from a very different angle as opposed to meteorology. With just about everyone downplaying this storm, from the major news networks down to the average Joe.....i believe everyone will get caught off guard by the complexity of this storm which hardly anyone gave full attention to. It's usually the storms which aren't give air time, that makes these storms....most memorable in people's minds They tend to never forget them even if they only produce less than a foot. I "believe" this storm will shock many people, including N and W of the Hudson Valley right down to NYC Metro. This afternoon while i was at work in White Plains.....i noticed an eerie calm this afternoon, a stillness i could not describe. A calm before the storm....of memorable proportions.

Same! I work in White Plains as well and while I was walking down Mamaroneck, I thought, “man is  it an eerily calm and suspect atmosphere right now.” Totally agree on the surprise aspect with this storm too. Wild day ahead of us.

cool thought process, soul getting bit windier and that model we see 6-12! Frank did say he felt like moving the 6-12 south, lets see. Ok bed for real now lol

Hunter Mountain is totally snow now.

rb924119 wrote:Hunter Mountain is totally snow now.

rb how you feeling bout us down here? We know crazy winds are coming but do you think we see 3 to 6 maybe even 6 plus?

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Hunter Mountain is totally snow now.

rb how you feeling bout us down here? We know crazy winds are coming but do you think we see 3 to 6 maybe even 6 plus?

Fine. Yup x2 lol

Here it is 41 degrees at 12:12 am.  Northern/Western Orange county. Speaking of Hunter Mountain, see https://www.huntermtn.com/web-cams/

dkodgis wrote:Here it is 41 degrees at 12:12 am.  Northern/Western Orange county. Speaking of Hunter Mountain, see https://www.huntermtn.com/web-cams/

Nice Damian. If somehow this backfires tomorrow, and I'm still putting my faith in RB that it doesn't, I just found my go to webcam to meditate on.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

dkodgis wrote:Here it is 41 degrees at 12:12 am.  Northern/Western Orange county. Speaking of Hunter Mountain, see https://www.huntermtn.com/web-cams/

Nice Damian. If somehow this backfires tomorrow, and I'm still putting my faith in RB that it doesn't, I just found my go to webcam to meditate on.

RB: my man, your man, our man.

The 0Z EURO sure was something bring snow into NYC. Keep in mind however, that with marginal temperatures and the March sun, the snow needs to come down heavily.

Now, to follow up on what I said:

IF we get temperatures at the surface just cold enough for it to snow and
IF we get the precipitation rates to be really high (i.e. 30+ dbz) and
IF we can lose the influence of the March sun (i.e. have it come down later in the day)

then NYC could get a nice surprise snowstorm, perhaps a 6"+ event.

Now, the criteria above NEED to be in place for this to work out. The HRRR still has temperatures in the low 40s. I need to see the dynamic cooling for this to have a chance.

No matter what, the heavy precipitation and the strong winds will be the bigger story.

ALL IM GONNA SAY IS TRUST THE PROCESS FOLKS!!!!!!!!!!

Changing over here already in Fishkill. Six hours or so ahead of modeling. LETS. GO.

Down to 39° here in Northern Westchester, temp still steadily falling, .54" of rain thus far

Math23x7 wrote:Now, to follow up on what I said:

IF we get temperatures at the surface just cold enough for it to snow and
IF we get the precipitation rates to be really high (i.e. 30+ dbz) and
IF we can lose the influence of the March sun (i.e. have it come down later in the day)

then NYC could get a nice surprise snowstorm, perhaps a 6"+ event.

Now, the criteria above NEED to be in place for this to work out.  The HRRR still has temperatures in the low 40s.  I need to see the dynamic cooling for this to have a chance.

No matter what, the heavy precipitation and the strong winds will be the bigger story.

I know it seems like you and I butt heads a lot Mike, but I do not mean for it to come across like I'm just trying to bust your back, AT ALL. We just always seem to differ in our opinions. That said, to your first "if", I agree. To your second, you won't need them to be as high as you think. Now that the phase has occurred we have the fresh injection of cold air from the northern stream to begin tapping into. Secondly, cold advection is already occurring well ahead of schedule compared to the models (if you believed them, which many never did). This means that the column is already cooling before the dynamics are even established, and once they are established, there will be very little time wasted in changing over to snow. The dynamics will only assist further cooling the column with this faster than progged cold advection - they won't be responsible for doing the leg work and initiating it. This means a lot of precip will spared from being wasted on cooling the atmosphere, and the largely increased likelihood of increased totals versus what guidance was suggesting (again, if you believed it). To your third "if", the sun is not going to play as large of a role as you think AS LONG AS the initial layer becomes established. Once that first layer is established, that will be the hardest part of accumulating. The rest is cake. Why? Obviously, the ground temperatures are above freezing, so snow that falls will melt initially. However, given the situation and setup, the beginning of the snowfall is going to be a very wet, dense, and high-water content snow, probably on the order of 5 or 6:1. This is very important for two reasons. The first is because the thermal profile is going to be highly marginal at first, you will end up with very large aggregate flakes (chicken feathers as I grew up calling them) as individual snowflakes will have a microscopic film on their edges that allows them to "stick together" thanks to hydrogen bonds. I will look like Mother Nature is having one heck of a pillow fight up there with Old Man Winter. Because these will be so large, it will drastically increase the amount of time and energy required to sufficiently melt them. Combine that with their excessively high water content, and that exponentially increases the amount of time and heat energy needed to melt them, as water has a very high specific heat (energy required to undergo a phase change from solid (snowflake/crystal) to liquid. Lastly, combine the incredibly heavy rates, and there is no way the ground is going to be able sufficiently melt all of this snow that is falling, thus allowing accumulations to begin very rapidly, especially on the normally colder surfaces. This will establish the initial layer that will then serve as the "buffer" between the warm ground and falling snow. As snow continues to fall, it will fall onto the surface that is now at freezing, thus, allowing rapid accumulation to occur. Even if the rates decrease, because that surface will be at freezing, snow will still accumulate. Granted, if the snowfall rates are not sufficiently high enough, the snow will begin to melt from the bottom up as the rate of melting would exceed the rate of accumulation. But it would not melt from the top down.

As for the HRRR, much like the GFS and RGEM, it is not accurately wetbulbing the lower parts of the atmosphere even though it's fully saturated, which is why it is keeping temperatures that warm. In reality, you will end up near 34-35° at the surface with moderate to heavy snow. The model that is doing the best so far with the thermal profile and advance of the transition? As Bill stated earlier in the night....THE NAM. And now we saw the EURO and its entire Ensemble cave to it tonight. If that doesn't open the eyes of the "pros", then they are honestly hopeless in my opinion. If this verifies like I have been thinking it is going to, then this to me leaves zero doubt that the NAM is the best model within 84 hours, BAR NONE.

Just flipped to pure snow here now. Well ahead of modeling.

Temperatures really starting to crash now. 39 with rain here. Can see out in Reading PA temperatures already in mid 30's with snow mixing in. It won't be long now and well ahead of guidance.

39 and moderate rain

41*with steady rain not to windy yet where is the snow I wish it would start already

When do we see this start?

When do we see this start?

Heavy snow everything covered 34

Light snow, grassy surfaces all covered 34 degrees.

41° here has been steady rain. Waiting for the changeover at some point